Modeling transit vehicle repair duration and active service time

Abstract

The need for dependable and flexible models of transit vehicle maintenance has been well established in the literature as a means for improving daily operations, capital planning and service quality. Stemming from the practical need to predict the duration of maintenance activities and active service time for buses, this paper uses the principles of duration modeling to address two important questions: what is the duration of vehicle maintenance activities and, given that a bus is in active service, how long will it take? We extend previous work by including exogenous factors directly affecting maintenance duration and active service time in fully parametric duration models and examine such activities for the transit system in Athens (Greece). Results indicate that vehicle age, kilometers travelled and repair type are amongst the most important determinants of maintenance duration.     

Random regret minimization or random utility maximization: an exploratory analysis in the context of automobile fuel choice

Interest in alternative behavioural paradigms to random utility maximization (RUM) has existed ever since the dominance of the RUM formulation. One alternative is known as random regret minimization (RRM), which suggests that when choosing between alternatives, decision makers aim to minimize anticipated regret. Although the idea of regret is not new, its incorporation into the same discrete choice framework of RUM is very recent. This paper is the first to apply the RRM‐model framework to model choice amongst durable goods. Specifically, we estimate and compare the RRM and RUM models in a stated choice context of choosing amongst vehicles fuelled with petrol, diesel and hybrid (associated with specific levels of fuel efficiency and engine capacity). The RRM model is found to achieve a marginally better fit (using a non‐nested test of differences) than its equally parsimonious RUM counterpart. As a second contribution, we derive a formulation for regret‐based elasticities and compare utility‐based and regret‐based elasticities in the context of stated vehicle type choices. We find that in the context of our choice data, mean estimates of elasticities are different for many of the attributes and alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A decision support system for total airport operations management and planning

The airport planning and decision making process exhibits various trade‐offs and complications due to the large number of stakeholders having different, and sometimes conflicting, objectives regarding the assessment of airport performance. As a result, the airport performance assessment necessitates the use of advanced modelling capabilities and decision support systems or tools in order to capture the multifaceted aspects, interests and measures of airport performance like capacity, delays, safety, security, noise and cost‐effectiveness. Presently, airport decision makers lack decision support tools able to provide an integrated view of total airport (both airside and landside) operations and analyse at a reasonable effort and decision‐oriented manner the various trade‐offs involved among different airport performance measures. The objective of this paper is twofold: (i) to describe the decision‐oriented modelling framework and development process of a decision support system for total airport operations management and planning, and (ii) to demonstrate the decision support capabilities and basic modelling functionalities of the proposed system. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A dynamic route choice model for public transport networks with boarding queues

Abstract

The concepts of optimal strategy and hyperpath were born within the framework of static frequency-based public transport assignment, where it is assumed that travel times and frequencies do not change over time and no overcrowding occurs. However, the formation of queues at public transport stops can prevent passengers from boarding the first vehicle approaching and can thus lead to additional delays in their trip. Assuming that passengers know from previous experience that for certain stops/lines they will have to wait for the arrival of the 2nd, 3rd, …, k-th vehicle, they may alter their route choices, thus resulting in a different assignment of flows across the network. The aim of this paper is to investigate route choice behaviour changes as a result of the formation and dispersion of queues at stops within the framework of optimal travel strategies. A new model is developed, based on modifications of existing algorithms.     

Experimental study of performance and emission characteristics of DEE-assisted minimally processed ethanol fuelled HCCI engine

The homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) is an alternative combustion concept for reciprocating engines. This study investigates an HCCI engine fuelled with Diethyl ether (DEE) ignition assisted wet ethanol (ethanol with 20% water content). The direct use of wet ethanol could reduce the associated energy required for distillation and dehydration of ethanol. The HCCI engine offers significant benefits in terms of its high efficiency and ultra low emissions. The experiment is conducted with various DEE flow rates and at different air-fuel ratios, for which stable HCCI combustion is achieved. Incylinder pressure, heat release analysis and exhaust emissions were observed. In this study, the effect of DEE on combustion parameters, thermal efficiency and emissions is analysed and discussed in detail. The experimental results indicate that the DEE flow rates have a significant effect on the maximum in-cylinder pressure and its position, thermal efficiency, maximum rate of pressure rise and the heat release rate. Results show that for all stable operating points, brake thermal efficiency is higher than reference mode at lower loads and almost same at higher loads. The emission parameters such as NO, HC and CO are lower than the dual fuel mode which is considered as a reference model for this experiment.     

Study on horizontal and vertical temperature gradient of ballastless track on curve lineEI北大核心

Research purposes: In order to get the time-varying rules of temperature field distribution in the track structure with superelevation and build the horizontal and vertical temperature gradient of ballastless track, a continuous observation of CRTS II; by using temperature sensors on curve segment of a passenger dedicated line was held. Research conclusions: (1) The temperature change of ballastless track between daytime and nighttime is big, the temperature changing value of surface was 24.7℃ in maximum, 19℃ in average. (2) The temperature changing value became small and the time of maximum temperature come late with the increase of distance to surface. (3) At the bottom of the track structure, the temperature changing value was 6.1℃ in maximum, 5.0℃ in average. (4) Fitting curve of vertical temperature gradient of longitudinally connected ballastless track on curve line can be exponential curve, and the curve sharp can match the distribution about the vertical temperature gradient of the code for design of bridge and culvert in China. (5) The horizontal temperature gradient of the CRTS II; longitudinally connected ballastless track included the track slab and support layer, temperature gradient of track slab could be fitted by using quadratic function, temperature gradient of support layer could be fitted by using piecewise linear function. (6) This study can provide guidance for the temperature load model in the design of high speed railway in central China.     

Computational methodology to predict injury risk for motor vehicle crash victims: A framework for improving Advanced Automatic Crash Notification systems

Advanced Automatic Crash Notification (AACN) systems, capable of predicting post-crash injury severity and subsequent automatic transfer of injury assessment data to emergency medical services, may significantly improve the timeliness, appropriateness, and efficacy of care provided. The estimation of injury severity based on statistical field data, as incorporated in current AACN systems, lack specificity and accuracy to identify the risk of life-threatening conditions. To enhance the existing AACN framework, the goal of the current study was to develop a computational methodology to predict risk of injury in specific body regions based on specific characteristics of the crash, occupant and vehicle. The computational technique involved multibody models of the vehicle and the occupant to simulate the case-specific occupant dynamics and subsequently predict the injury risk using established physical metrics. To demonstrate the computational-based injury prediction methodology, three frontal crash cases involving adult drivers in passenger cars were extracted from the US National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System. The representative vehicle model, anthropometrically scaled model of the occupant and kinematic information related to the crash cases, selected at different severities, were used for the blinded verification of injury risk estimations in five different body regions. When compared to existing statistical algorithms, the current computational methodology is a significant improvement toward post-crash injury prediction specifically tailored to individual attributes of the crash. Variations in the initial posture of the driver, analyzed as a pre-crash variable, were shown to have a significant effect on the injury risk.     

The trophic state of the Baltic Sea a century ago: a model simulation study

We apply a 3-D circulation model with a biogeochemical module (ERGOM) for the simulation of trophic conditions in the Baltic Sea a century ago. One aim is to provide reference or background data for nitrogen, phosphorus and chlorophyll, which is required for the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). We assume that the situation a century ago serves this purpose well. Model input for this long-term simulation study are the regionally differentiated riverine and atmospheric nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, which were compiled and calculated for a situation 100 years ago on the basis of various literature sources. For the mixed surface layer of the open Baltic Sea, we suggest maximum winter concentrations for dissolved phosphorus (dissolved inorganic nitrogen) of 0.23–0.35 (2.7–3.7) mmol/m³. Maximum chlorophyll-a concentrations are between 1.8 and 2.4 mg/m³. The concentrations of all parameters for different coastal waters vary in a wide range, depending on exposure to nutrient sources. Our nutrient concentrations for the situation a century ago are close to early measured data (1950–1960) and suggest that this data is suitable as reference data, as well.     

Integral Recrystallization Modelling

1.IntroductionAlthoughmancanproducemetallicmaterialssincemorethan5(X)0yearsitisafundamentalfindingofonlythiscenturythatthePropertiesofamaterialarenotdeterminedbyanymacroscopicquantity,likeoverallcomposition,dimensions,strainortemperature,ratherthanbyitsmicrostructure,i.e.thespatialdistributionofelements,phases,orientationsanddefects.Thismicrosmicture,however,isliabletOchangeduringprocessingofamaterialfromtheliquidstatetothefinalproduct,anditcanbesubstantiallyaffectedbychangingtheprocessingcon…