Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings

In recent years we have seen important extensions of logit models in behavioural research such as incorporation of preference and scale heterogeneity, attribute processing heuristics, and estimation of willingness to pay (WTP) in WTP space. With rare exception, however, a non-linear treatment of the parameter set to allow for behavioural reality, such as embedded risk attitude and perceptual conditioning of occurrence probabilities attached to specific attributes, is absent. This is especially relevant to the recent focus in travel behaviour research on identifying the willingness to pay for reduced travel time variability, which is the source of estimates of the value of trip reliability that has been shown to take on an increasingly important role in project appraisal. This paper incorporates, in a generalised non-linear (in parameters) logit model, alternative functional forms for perceptual conditioning (known as probability weighting) and risk attitude in the utility function to account for travel time variability, and then derives an empirical estimate of the willingness to pay for trip time variability-embedded travel time savings as an alternative to separate estimates of time savings and trip time reliability. We illustrate the richness of the approach using a stated choice data set for commuter choice between unlabelled attribute packages. Statistically significant risk attitude parameters and parameters underlying decision weights are estimated for multinomial logit and mixed multinomial logit models, along with values of expected travel time savings.     

Bus arrival time prediction at bus stop with multiple routes

Provision of accurate bus arrival information is vital to passengers for reducing their anxieties and waiting times at bus stop. This paper proposes models to predict bus arrival times at the same bus stop but with different routes. In the proposed models, bus running times of multiple routes are used for predicting the bus arrival time of each of these bus routes. Several methods, which include support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN), k nearest neighbours algorithm (k-NN) and linear regression (LR), are adopted for the bus arrival time prediction. Observation surveys are conducted to collect bus running and arrival time data for validation of the proposed models. The results show that the proposed models are more accurate than the models based on the bus running times of single route. Moreover, it is found that the SVM model performs the best among the four proposed models for predicting the bus arrival times at bus stop with multiple routes.     

The EEZ: International enforcement problems

This paper sets out the problems and discusses possible solutions related to the policing of, and protection of economic activities undertaken in, off-shore zones over which coastal states will be expected to exercise jurisdiction.     

BENETEAU FISRT 45

BENETEAU FISRT 45新款帆船成功参加了一系列海外帆船赛后,又于近日参加了汉密尔顿岛帆船赛周（Hamilton isalnd Race Week）,并在两场分组赛中取得了胜利,在IRC Premier Passage级别分组赛中,新款First 45系列帆船之一＂Blue Water＂号把其他竞争者远远抛在后面.     

Development of hydrogen-compressed natural gas blend engine for heavy duty vehicles

Natural gas fuel, as an alternative energy source of transportation, has been used widely since it has an advantage of low emission levels. However, new technologies are required in order to meet the reinforced emission regulations. For this purpose, research into the development of hydrogen-compressed natural gas (HCNG) blend engine was carried out to evaluate its feasibility and emission characteristics. The Engine Research Department at the Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials carried out a large number of tests based on various parameter changes that could affect the performance and emission of HCNG engine in different operating conditions. An earlier stage of the research project focused on the lean combustion of a HCNG engine for heavy duty vehicles to meet the EURO-VI standards. An 11-L/6-cylinder CNG engine was used for the test. The effects of the excess air ratio change were assessed based on various content ratios of hydrogen in the natural gas fuel. In the later part of the HCNG research, a stoichiometric mixture operation was suggested to meet reinforced emission regulation without requiring a De-NOx system. Additionally, an exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) system was introduced for the purpose of improving thermal efficiency and durability. The optimal operating conditions were selected to achieve the best thermal efficiency to meet the required emission levels. In this paper, we demonstrate that a HCNG engine can achieve a significant decrease in NOx emissions, as compared to that of a CNG engine, while meeting the requirements of the EURO-VI standards during a transient mode cycle test. EGR can suppress the weakness of stoichiometric mixture combustion strategy, such as the deterioration of the durability and thermal efficiency, while the emission level can be lowered with the use of a three-way catalyst. The possibility of further reduction of emissions and CO2 with EGR was evaluated to access practical application of a HCNG engine in the field. From that evaluation, the HCNG engine with stoichiometric mixture operation for heavy duty vehicles was developed. The emission levels of HCNG engine were 50 % lower when compared to the EURO-VI standards with a greater than 10 % decrease in CO₂ compared to that of a natural gas engine.     

Long-term behavior of particulate matters at urban roadside and background locations in Seoul,Korea

The concentrations of particulate matter, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and TSP at an urban roadside and an urban background station are analyzed. Data collected over a 10 year period are analyzed. The concentrations of the particulates measured at the urban site are systematically larger than at the background station. The mean PM values at the former also exhibit a slight fall over the decade unlike those at the background station. Overall, the particulate matters at both locations are in an intermediate range of global level, e.g., approximately two times lower than those in other Asian regions but higher than in Europe.     

A review of Australian traffic system design models

The demands for traffic infrastructure are increasing. Yet over the last decade investment in new infrastructure has decreased at all levels. Traffic systems designers are, therefore, being asked to be more accurate in their prediction of the impacts of changes, to analyse ever more complex situations and to extract more from the existing traffic system. This paper reviews developments in techniques for analysing the impacts of changes in the traffic system. It looks at intersection, route, network, parking lot and public transport design models that have been developed in Australia. Particular emphasis is given to the considerable developments in microcomputers and graphics and the impact these are having on the models. Future developments are also discussed.     

新转化膜在汽车行业内的应用近况

1 引言 伴随着20世纪初Thomas Coslett及其他众多人士的研究工作,在1943年引入了Jernstadt磷酸盐后,诞生了今天人们所熟知的用于镀锌工艺前预浸处理的含钛磷酸氢二钠溶液.使用该磷酸盐后,可以更快地形成更为细小的磷酸锌晶体组织.过去60多年间,这种基础工艺在众人的努力下愈发精细,但是基本的化学特性及功能仍然保持不变.     

The Organization of Nautical Training and Executive Leadership

The aim of this paper is to indicate some of the distinctive problems of executive leadership which surround the control of authority in merchant navy training schools in the United Satates, Great Britain, and Spain. On the basis of extensive field interviews with the staff and directors of two American, three British, and two Spanish, schools, our purpose is to suggest the conditions which give rise to the need for particular kinds of leadership styles, depending upon the manner by which nautical education is organized [1]. More specfi-cally, our thesis is that their organizationl chartering arrangements (defined as contractual and quasi-contractual linkages with variious third parties to nautical education) mandate specific kinds of internal structural patterns within nautical schools which, in turn, produce the need for different styles of executive leadership.     

Tractor-Semitrailer Dynamics: Design of the Fifth Wheel*

The nonlinear equations of motion are derived for a tractor-semitrailer truck where both the itractor and the semitrailer yaw, pitch, roll, and translate. Special emphasis is placed on the constraints imposed by the fifth wheel on the vehicle motion. In particular, the effects of two proposed fifth wheel design changes on the jackknifing behavior of a vehicle in a turning, braking maneuver are studied. The results demonstrate that the tendency of the vehicle to jackknife can be reduced with a geometric modification of the fifth wheel.