Description of a flexible and extendable physical–biogeochemical model system for the water column

A modelling system for coupled physical–biogeochemical simulations in the water column is presented here. The physical model component allows for a number of different statistical turbulence closure schemes, ranging from simple algebraic closures to two-equation turbulence models with algebraic second-moment closures. The biogeochemical module consists of models which are based on a number of state variables represented by their ensemble averaged concentrations. Specific biogeochemical models may range from simple NPZ (nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton) to complex ecosystem models. Recently developed modified Patankar solvers for ordinary differential equations allow for stable discretisations of the production and destruction terms guaranteeing conservative and non-negative solutions. The increased stability of these new solvers over explicit solvers is demonstrated for a plankton spring bloom simulation. The model system is applied to marine ecosystem dynamics the Northern North Sea and the Central Gotland Sea. Two different biogeochemical models are applied, a conservative nitrogen-based model to the North Sea, and a more complex model including an oxygen equation to the Baltic Sea, allowing for the reproduction of chemical processes under anoxic conditions. For both applications, earlier model results obtained with slightly different model setups could be basically reproduced. It became however clear that the choice for ecosystem model parameters such as maximum phytoplankton growth rates does strongly depend on the physical model parameters (such as turbulence closure models or external forcing).     

Modelling and forecasting the demolition market in shipping

ABSTRACT

We model the demolition market, an integral part of the international shipping industry. It is shown through the implementation of a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model that international steel-scrap prices contribute decisively towards price discovery in the ship-demolition industry. Our finding is explained and attributed to the fact that the growth models of Southeast Asian countries, where the ship-demolition market is primarily located, rely on scrap metal imports. These are mainly obtained from the developed economies rather than the recycling of vessels. We then proceed to test the forecasting ability of our model and use it for price prediction in the ship-demolition market. We establish that it provides the decision-makers with a useful prediction tool which enables all stakeholders involved, the ship owner, the recycler and the cash buyer alike, to gain valuable insights of the underlying trend in the sector.     

Phytodetritus deposited on the Antarctic shelf and upper slope: its relevance for the benthic system

Underwater photography was used to ascertain regional, seasonal, interannual or depth dependent variations in the occurrence of phytodetritus on the Antarctic seafloor in order to explain the patchy distribution patterns of the benthos. The information was obtained from an average of 63 photographs taken at each of 76 stations in the Weddell and Lazarev Sea along a 2300 km coastline during four austral summers between 1986 and 1991. In areas where the shelf was broader than 80 km, the sediment showed a significantly higher phytodetritus cover than on the narrower shelf. This can probably be explained by the lower current velocity on the broader shelf. Significantly higher percentages of phytodetritus cover were also found on the seafloor in areas where the megabenthos cover was relatively low. These results indicate that in areas with a low current velocity, organic particles sink relatively fast onto the seafloor where they are available mainly for deposit feeders. The generally more abundant filter feeders are better adapted to a higher current velocity which transports the particles mainly horizontally over longer periods. No significant relationships were found between other physical parameters and the occurrence of phytodetritus. Therefore, the results are also discussed under the aspect of a weak pelagic–benthic coupling, effected by the long-term development of the benthic system.     

Importance of ocean circulation in ecological modeling: An example from the North Sea

There is an increasing number of ecological models for the North Sea around. Skogen and Moll (2000) [Skogen, M.D., Moll, A. 2000. Interannual variability of the North Sea primary production: comparison from two model studies. Continental Shelf Research 20 (2), 129–151] compared the interannual variability of the North Sea primary production using two state-of-the-art ecological models, NORWECOM and ECOHAM1. Their conclusion was that the two models agreed on an annual mean primary production, its variability and the timing and size of the peak production. On the other hand, there was a low (even negative dependent of area) correlation in the production in different years between the two models.In the present work, these conclusions are brought further. To try to better understand the observed differences between the two models, the two ecological models are run in an identical physical setting. With such a set-up also the interannual variability between the two models is in agreement, and it is concluded that the single most important factor for a reliable modeling of phytoplankton and nutrient distributions and transports within the North Sea is a proper physical model.     

Modelling and analysis of a gyrostat elastically attached to a vehicle

In recent studies, the dynamic response of a passenger car to a gyrostat was investigated for a series of driving manoeuvres, but the gyrostat was assumed to be rigidly supported, thus neglecting the effect of rotor precession. The aim of the present study is the modelling and investigation of the gyrostat-vehicle interaction for elastically mounted gyrostats. For this purpose, a general model describing the motion of a gyrostat elastically supported by a moving platform is derived. Emphasis is placed on the mathematical derivation, where all considerations that are necessary to arrive at the final result are included. Thus, the presented considerations and results can be easily adopted and are suitable to serve beyond their actual purpose as a reference work for other applications. The derived model is tested with the aid of vehicle dynamics simulations and the simulation results prove to be consistent with the results of the rigid attachment model, provided that the elastic approach is subjected to high-bearing stiffnesses. However, it is shown that at lower bearing stiffnesses the solutions are progressively different, since low-bearing stiffnesses enable the gyrostat to move, due to the compliance of the bearings itself, relative to the vehicle chassis with high-angular velocities.     

Use of methylation filtration and Cot fractionation for analysis of genome composition and comparative genomics in bread wheat

We investigated the compositional and structural differences in sequences derived from different fractions of wheat genomic DNA obtained using methylation filtration and Cot fractionation. Comparative ...     

Relationships between fares, trip length and market competition

This paper analyses equilibrium fares that arise from Collusion, Cournot, Stackelberg, Bertrand and Sequential Price Competition when two profit maximising transport firms produce symmetrically differentiable services and have identical costs. Special focus is placed on how different equilibrium fares are linked to trip length. Higher operator costs and higher demand from the authorities regarding the quality of transport supply result in steeper relationships (larger rate of change) between all fares and travel distance. Also, a higher degree of substitutability between the services will in most cases make these relationships steeper. The competitive situation has less influence on fares, both absolutely and relatively, the longer routes the operators compete on.     

Reducing CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> from cars in the European Union

The European Union (EU) recently adopted CO₂ emissions mandates for new passenger cars, requiring steady reductions to 95 gCO₂/km in 2021. We use a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which includes a private transportation sector with an empirically-based parameterization of the relationship between income growth and demand for vehicle miles traveled. The model also includes representation of fleet turnover, and opportunities for fuel use and emissions abatement, including representation of electric vehicles. We analyze the impact of the mandates on oil demand, CO₂ emissions, and economic welfare, and compare the results to an emission trading scenario that achieves identical emissions reductions. We find that vehicle emission standards reduce CO₂ emissions from transportation by about 50 MtCO₂ and lower the oil expenditures by about €6 billion, but at a net added cost of €12 billion in 2020. Tightening CO₂ standards further after 2021 would cost the EU economy an additional €24–63 billion in 2025, compared with an emission trading system that achieves the same economy-wide CO₂ reduction. We offer a discussion of the design features for incorporating transport into the emission trading system.     

Estimating the inefficiency in the Norwegian bus industry from stochastic cost frontier models

A stochastic cost frontier function based on data from 170 of the 175 Norwegian subsidized bus companies is estimated under two alternative presumptions regarding the distribution of the inefficency among the bus operators. When the inefficiency is assumed to be half-normally distributed, the average inefficiency in the industry is estimated to be 13.7 per cent. This calculated value is nearly halved (7.2 per cent) when the exponential distribution is applied, while the ranking of the companies according to inefficiency is unchanged. By regressing the estimated inefficiency values for each company on some exogenous variables describing its ownership structure and the subsidy policy which it faces, it is seen that inefficiency of the companies which negotiate with the public authorities over the subsidy amounts is slightly higher than the inefficiency of the companies which face a subsidy policy based on cost norms. Our analysis gives, however, no significant differences in the efficiency between privately owned bus companies and publicly owned bus operators, and shows only minor economies of scale.