Airline industry deregulation and changes in systematic risk

Deregulation of U.S. Airline Industry may have lowered systematic risk because pricing freedom and route flexibility improved airline management reaction to various economic conditions. Reduced systematic risk offers lower cost of equity capital for the industry as a whole as well as for individual carriers. Previous research has had mixed results in identifying a relationship between deregulation and airline industry cost of capital. This study plots airline industry Beta coefficients across the years 1963 to 1987 and clears up previously conflicting research findings. Beta coefficients had been falling since the fuel crisis of 1974 and continued to fall through 1980. Fluctuations since deregulation have been relatively minor and systematic risk has leveled off at a significantly lower value than before deregulation. Studies which concentrate on the fluctuation in Beta since 1978 are dependent on the exact time period of analysis, and their conclusions that deregulation raised or lowered systematic risk are likewise suspect. A broader view of systematic risk changes in the deregulatory era shows airline Betas peaking from 1971 to 1973 and a gradual decrease as deregulation was being discussed, implemented, and legally mandated. This gradual decline from 1974 to 1980 may be attributed to such factors as fuel prices, interest rates, general inflation as well as deregulation. In any case systematic risk of the U.S. Airline industry has been lower since deregulation than in decades before.     

Real-Time Fuzzy Obstacle Avoidance Using Directional Visual Perception

This paper presents a novel vision-based obstacle avoidance approach for the Autonomous Mobile Robot (AMR) with a PanTilt-Zoom (PTZ) camera as its only sensing modality. The approach combines the morphological closing operation based on Sobel Edge Detection Operation and the (μ-kσ) thresholding technique to detect obstacles to soften the various lighting and ground floor effects. Both the morphology method and thresholding technique are computationaUy simple. The processing speed of the algorithm is fast enough to avoid some active obstacles. In addition, this approach takes into account the history obstacle effects on the current state. Fuzzy logic is used to control the behaviors of AMR as it navigates in the environment. All behaviors run concurrendy and generate motor response solely based on vision perception. A priority based on subsumption coordinator selects the most appropriate response to direct the AMR away from obstacles. Validation of the proposed approach is done on a Pioneer 1 mobile robot.     

Applying Human Systems Integration to the Rapid Acquisition Process

The rapidly changing complexity of the Global War on Terrorism has changed the approach to equipping forward-deployed military forces. Combatant Commanders conducting operations now require timely materiel solutions to enhance mission capabilities and reduce the risk for individual soldiers. To address this challenge, the US Army established the Rapid Equipping Force to assess emerging requirements, to propose solutions to those requirements, and to implement those solutions in an expedient time frame. Unfortunately, the REF lacks a consistent analytical methodology for assessing alternative materiel solutions. To address the need for a human systems integration (HSI) analysis method, the authors developed an Assessment-Based Rapid Acquisition HSI Analysis Method (ABRAHAM) capable of generating tailored surveys and evaluating these surveys for unacceptable risks to soldiers. To validate ABRAHAM's concept and content, ABRAHAM was showcased in three Department of Defense settings: the Human Factors Engineering Technical Advisory Group, the REF, and the US Marine Corps' Operational Test and Evaluation Activity. The ABRAHAM appears to fill a gap in the current library of HSI tools. Based on the feedback provided during the product showcases, there is sufficient interest and technological maturity to further develop ABRAHAM to serve both the traditional and rapid acquisition processes.     

Economic appraisal of European transport projects: The state-of-the-art revisited

Substantial investment has been made at national and European level in transport infrastructure over the past 50 years and is likely to continue in the future. The need to appraise transport projects in economic and social terms has developed alongside this in both scope and complexity. The state-of-the-art in the economic appraisal of transport projects is reviewed, progress is assessed and future challenges are identified. The review addresses the general framework, treatment of major impacts, presentation of outputs and issues such as uncertainty. It draws on national practice in Western European countries, which varies substantially reflecting a range of cultural and economic differences. Some points of commonality exist and the principle of monetizing direct transport impacts is generally accepted. Progress has been made towards the measurement of environmental impacts, but the assessment of the wider impacts remains under-developed. Increased sophistication and complexity has brought increasing data and presentation requirements, where computerized decision support methods have potential. Many challenges exist for the future of appraisal and the review is concluded with a discussion of some key issues. At the heart of these is the continuing debate over the relative roles of national and European government in decision-making and resource allocation.     

Book reviews

THE U.S. AIRFREIGHT INDUSTRY, by Nawal K. Taneja. Lexington Books, Lexington, Mass., 1979. 244 pp.

TRAFFIC, OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, FUTUROLOGY, by Arne Jensen. North Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1980. 321 pp. ($39.00)

PROBLEMS OF THE CARLESS, by R. E. Paaswell and W. W. Recker. Praeger Publishers, New York, 1978. 190 pp.

TRANSPORTATION AND THE ELDERLY, by Martin Wachs. University of California Press, Berkeley, 1980.

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: PLANNING, OPERATIONS AND MANAGEMENT, edited by George E. Gray and Lester A Hoel. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1979. 749 pp.

ETHYL ALCOHOL PRODUCTION AND USE AS A MOTOR FUEL, edited by J. K. Paul. Noyes Data Corporation, New Jersy, 1979. 354 pp ($48.00).

URBAN PLANNING AND PUBLIC TRANSPORT, edited by Roy Cresswell. The Construction Press, London, 1980. 172 pp. (£15.00)     

Scenario construction for transport planning

This paper argues that the types of uncertainty having the most serious consequences for transport planning are not captured by existing modelling procedures, which typically rely on a limited amount of sensitivity testing of plans based on extrapolative forecasts. It recommends as an alternative scenario‐based planning, an approach which is finding increasing application in private sector policy formation. The paper summarises the origins of scenario planning and the gradual broadening in its range of application, before going on to suggest methods of scenario construction suitable for transport planning applications. It considers the arguments for and against associating probabilities with scenarios and also addresses the problems of formulating transport strategies and evaluating them within the context of a scenario‐based approach to strategy choice.     

The wind-forced response on a buoyant coastal current: Observations of the western Gulf of Maine plume

The freshwater plume in the western Gulf of Maine is being studied as part of an interdisciplinary investigation of the physical transport of a toxic alga. A field program was conducted in the springs of 1993 and 1994 to map the spatial and temporal patterns of salinity, currents and algal toxicity. The observations suggest that the plume's cross-shore structure varies markedly as a function of fluctuations in alongshore wind forcing. Consistent with Ekman drift dynamics, upwelling favorable winds spread the plume offshore, at times widening it to over 50 km in offshore extent, while downwelling favorable winds narrow the plume width to as little as 10 km.Using a simple slab model, we find qualitative agreement between the observed variations of plume width and those predicted by Ekman theory for short time scales of integration. Near surface current meters show significant correlations between cross-shore currents and alongshore wind stress, consistent with Ekman theory. Estimates of the terms in the alongshore momentum equation calculated from moored current meter arrays also indicate a dominant Ekman balance within the plume. A significant correlation between alongshore currents and winds suggests that interfacial drag may be important, although inclusion of a Raleigh drag term does not significantly improve the alongshore momentum balance.     

纽约州交通局的桥梁检查计划

在过去20年里,纽约州交通运输部(NYSDOT)已对全州1.74万公路桥梁的桥梁状况的检查和评价计划进行了管理和监督.该计划的首要目标是确保纽约的桥梁保持结构和运营安全,数据收集和报告是为桥梁所有者提供评估桥梁的状态和维护需求的主要信息来源.本文概述了纽约州交通部的桥梁检查和评价计划,包括项目范围、主要要求和特点、资源和数据应用.     

Discussing the “positive utilities” of autonomous vehicles: will travellers really use their time productively?

ABSTRACT

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to reshape travel behaviour and demand in part by enabling productive uses of travel time—a primary component of the “positive utility of travel” concept—thus reducing subjective values of travel time savings (VOT). Many studies from industry and academia have assumed significant increases in travel time use and reductions in VOT for AVs. In this position paper, I argue that AVs’ VOT impacts may be more modest than anticipated and derive from a different source. Vehicle designs and operations may limit activity engagement during travel, with AV users feeling more like car passengers than train riders. Furthermore, shared AVs may attenuate travel time use benefits, and productivity gains could be limited to long-distance trips. Although AV riders will likely have greater activity participation during travel, many in-vehicle activities today may be more about coping with commuting burdens than productively using travel time. Instead, VOT reductions may be more likely to arise from a different “positive utility”—subjective well-being improvements through reduced stresses of driving or the ability to relax and mentally transition. Given high uncertainty, further empirical research on the experiential, time use, and VOT impacts of AVs is needed.