A dynamic analysis of household car ownership

This paper examines the determinants of household car ownership, using Irish longitudinal data for the period 1995–2001. This was a period of rapid economic and social change in Ireland, with the proportion of households with one or more cars growing from 74.6% to 80.8%. Understanding the determinants of household car ownership, a key determinant of household travel behaviour more generally, is particularly important in the context of current policy developments which seek to encourage more sustainable means of travel. In this paper, we use longitudinal data to estimate dynamic models of household car ownership, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity and state dependence. We find income and previous car ownership to be the strongest determinants of differences in household car ownership, with the effect of permanent income having a stronger and more significant effect on the probability of household car ownership than current income. In addition, income elasticities differ by previous car ownership status, with income elasticities higher for those households with no car in the initial period. Other important influences include household composition (in particular, the presence of young children) and lifecycle effects, which create challenges for policymakers in seeking to change travel behaviour.     

Delivering Value for Money to Government through Efficient and Effective Public Transit Service Continuity: Some Thoughts

Abstract

This paper documents some thoughts on the reform agenda in public transit that is occurring throughout the world. The specific focus is on a growing commitment to competitive regulation through competitive tendering, and the efforts by a few governments (notably in Australia) to take control of the tangible assets used by private operators as a mechanism to exercise the opportunity, if so taken, to put services out to competitive tender. The paper reviews the theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on contracting regimes and asset ownership, and the role that government and the operator might play in a setting in which building trusting and collaborative partnerships has merit in delivering services that are in the main funded from the public purse.     

Impacts of combining partial and general equilibrium modelling in freight transport analyses – a forest sector case study from Norway

Abstract

The forest sector in Norway is very transport intensive, accounting for approximately 14% of total domestic freight transport traffic on Norwegian roads. This paper presents an analysis linking a general equilibrium freight transport modelling tool with a partial equilibrium model of the forest sector. The freight transport model predicts transport costs, modal split and transport patterns, and the results are treated as inputs to the forest sector model. The objective of the paper is to analyse the modelling effect of taking forest sector model effects back into the freight transport model and treated as new demand. Compared to a base scenario for the year 2020, we compare analyses with and without this new demand from the forest sector model back into the freight transport modelling tool.     

The role of habit and residential location in travel behavior change programs,a field experiment

Transportation - Early evaluations of travel change programs demonstrated dramatic success in shifting people out of cars and into transit and active travel. Yet methodological shortcomings of...     

Measuring Truck Travel Time Reliability Using Truck Probe GPS Data

Truck probe data collected by global positioning system (GPS) devices has gained increased attention as a source of truck mobility data, including measuring truck travel time reliability. Most reliability studies that apply GPS data are based on travel time observations retrieved from GPS data. The major challenges to using GPS data are small, nonrandom observation sets and low reading frequency. In contrast, using GPS spot speed (instantaneous speed recorded by GPS devices) directly can address these concerns. However, a recently introduced GPS spot-speed-based reliability metric that uses speed distribution does not provide a numerical value that would allow for a quantitative evaluation. In light of this, the research described in this article improves the current GPS spot speed distribution-based reliability approach by calculating the speed distribution coefficient of variation. An empirical investigation of truck travel time reliability on Interstate 5 in Seattle, WA, is performed. In addition, correlations are provided between the improved approach and a number of commonly used reliability measures. The reliability measures are not highly correlated, demonstrating that different measures provide different conclusions for the same underlying data and traffic conditions. The advantages and disadvantages of each measure are discussed and recommendations of the appropriate measures for different applications are presented.     

An Airport Experience Framework from a Tourism Perspective

This study, by integrating the perspectives of sociological, psychological, and service marketing and management, all of which affect the passenger experience, proposes a theoretical framework for the creation of the airport experience in relation to tourism. This research responds to the current phenomenon in which airports are offering other types of experiences within the airport terminal, expanding the role of an airport from being a utility for transportation into a place where various and different values can be offered. This research explores the current airport experience and adds to research on airport experience by clarifying ten key components necessary for airport passenger experience propositions based on existing research, the current industry phenomena, and the empirical study. The paper also underlines those components that can enhance passenger experience in relation to tourism and highlights the role that airports contribute to a destination.     

Car-deficit households: determinants and implications for household travel in the U.S.

Transportation - In the U.S., households with less than one car per driver (auto-deficit households) are more than twice as common as zero-vehicle households. Yet we know very little about these...     

The estimation of transport cost functions: a methodological review

Abstract

The ex‐post facto cost of using private finance in roads is examined using a case study approach. The paper focuses on the first eight design, build, finance and operate (DBFO) roads commissioned by the UK Government’s Highways Agency and paid for through a system of shadow tolls. It carries out a financial analysis of the publicly available accounting information from the Highways Agency and its private sector partners for the first 6 years since the start of the 30‐year schemes in 1997. Publicly available financial information about the schemes was found to be limited and opaque. In 3 years, the Highways Agency had paid more than the construction cost. It was unclear whether the payments were higher than expected at financial close. Its private sector partners reported a post‐tax return on capital of 29% and an effective cost of capital of 11% in 2002, twice the cost of public finance. However, operating through a complex web of subcontracting creates additional, undisclosed sources of profit for their parent companies that make it difficult to establish the total cost of using private finance. The paper questions the wisdom of using private finance by providing evidence about the cost, including the cost of risk transfer.     

The History of the Transport Future—Evaluating Dutch Transport Scenarios of the Past

Abstract

This paper examines 42 business‐as‐usual (BAU) scenarios for future transport and traffic development in the Netherlands from the period 1970 to 2000. An important aspect of these scenarios is that they indicate the potential future state of the transport system if the policies in place at the time continue unchanged, thus raising issues which may require a policy response. This paper shows that in most of the important BAU transport scenario results of the past in the Netherlands, such as future car use and transport emissions, the policy makers were not misled. The prognoses for traffic congestion are an important exception as they underestimated the congestion problems that would arise. This paper shows that, based on the research it examines, BAU transport forecasting is an inaccurate practice. It is recommended that the BAU scenario designer communicates this high inaccuracy, enabling the policy maker to include the inherent future uncertainty in their decision‐making.     

Evaluating CO2 emissions, cost, and service quality trade-offs in an urban delivery system case study

Growing pressure to limit greenhouse gas emissions is changing the way businesses operate. This paper presents the trade-offs between cost, service quality (represented by time window guarantees), and emissions of an urban pickup and delivery system under these changing pressures. A model, developed by the authors in ArcGIS, is used to evaluate these trade-offs for a specific case study involving a real fleet with specific operational characteristics. The problem is modeled as an emissions minimization vehicle routing problem with time windows. Analyses of different external policies and internal operational changes provide insight into the impact of these changes on cost, service quality, and emissions. Specific consideration of the influence of time windows, customer density, and vehicle choice are included.The results show a stable relationship between monetary cost and kilograms of CO₂, with each kilogram of CO₂ associated with a $3.50 increase in cost, illustrating the influence of fuel use on both cost and emissions. In addition, customer density and time window length are strongly correlated with monetary cost and kilograms of CO₂ per order. The addition of 80 customers or extending the time window 100 minutes would save approximately $3.50 and 1 kilogram of CO₂ per order. Lastly, the evaluation of four different fleets illustrates significant environmental and monetary gains can be achieved through the use of hybrid vehicles.The results demonstrate there is not a trade-off between CO₂ emissions and cost, but that these two metrics trend together. This suggests the most effective way to encourage fleet operators to limit emissions is to increase the cost of fuel or CO₂ production, as this is consistent with current incentives that exist to reduce cost, and therefore emissions.