Experiential Incrementalism: On the Theory and Technique to Implement Transport Plans and Policies

The paper describes an approach to the vexing problem of transport planning and policy. It deals jointly with three questions, which in today's practice are addressed separately: How are hypotheses about transport problems and alternatives to their solution developed? How can a good plan or policy be identified? What is the process of implementing a transport plan or policy? In doing this the paper has the ambitious objective of proposing a new model and process for transport planning and policy. It is applicable in developed and developing countries and is not restricted to the transport sector. The paper builds on, and is a reinterpretation of two cornerstone transport planning and decision-making models – the CATS (Chicago Area Transportation Study) Planning and Design Model and Braybrooke and Lindblom's Disjointed Incrementalism. It advances a technique of experiential incrementalism (termed polisanalysis) to develop and implement plans and policies. It proposes that problems should be diagnosed by observation and continuous data collection; that their continuous analysis, finding the “cure”, and implementation take place through the method of experiential incrementalism. In this method interventions are grounded on the theories of neoinstitutional economics and psychoanalysis and derived using contact function, explained in the paper, which renders the method scientific replicability. Experiential incrementalism can employ a wider array of options in planning and policy than is presently thought possible. Like other scientific methods, its application requires rigorous training.     

Dual extended Kalman filter for vehicle state and parameter estimation

The article demonstrates the implementation of a model-based vehicle estimator, which can be used for combined estimation of vehicle states and parameters. The estimator is realised using the dual extended Kalman filter (DEKF) technique, which makes use of two Kalman filters running in parallel, thus 'splitting' the state and parameter estimation problems. Note that the two problems cannot be entirely separated due to their inherent interdependencies. This technique provides several advantages, such as the possibility to switch off the parameter estimator, once a sufficiently good set of estimates has been obtained. The estimator is based on a four-wheel vehicle model with four degrees of freedom, which accommodates the dominant modes only, and is designed to make use of several interchangeable tyre models. The paper demonstrates the appropriateness of the DEKF. Results to date indicate that this is an effective approach, which is considered to be of potential benefit to the automotive industry.     

Simulation Tools, Modelling and Identification, for an Automotive Shock Absorber in the Context of Vehicle Dynamics

For purpose of simulation of vehicle dynamics, a physical model of an automotive shock absorber has been developed and implemented in several software packages for multibody simulations. In the present paper, the damper model structure is shortly elaborated together with some measurement and estimation techniques to retrieve the model parameters, possibly from dynamometer measurements only. These techniques are illustrated on a shock absorber normally used on the front suspension of a BMW series 7.     

A direct demand model for downtown work trips

This article documents the development of a direct travel demand model for bus and rail modes. In the model, the number of interzonal work trips is dependent on travel times and travel costs on each available mode, size and socioeconomic characteristics of the labor force, and the number of jobs. In estimating the models’ coefficients constraints are imposed to insure that the travel demand elasticities behave according to the economic theory of consumer behavior. The direct access time elasticities for both transit modes are estimated to be approximately minus two, and the direct linehaul time elasticities approximately minus one. The cross-elasticities with respect to the travel time components are estimated to be less than the corresponding direct elasticities. In general, the time cross-elasticities are such that rail trip characteristics but not car trip characteristics affect bus travel, and car trip characteristics but not bus trip characteristics affect rail travel. The cost elasticities lie between zero and one-half. Thus, the success of mass transit serving a strong downtown appears to depend on good access arrangements. This success can be confirmed with competitive linehaul speeds. The cost of travel appears to assume a minor role in choice of mode and tripmaking decisions. In the paper, a comparison is also made between the predictive performance of the models developed and that of a traditional transit model. The results indicate that the econometric models developed attain both lower percent error and lower variation of the error than the traditional model.     

Public transit subsidies, output effect and total factor productivity

This paper extends previous works on total factor productivity decomposition when firms receive both operating and capital subsidies. It shows that previous works considered either the lump-sum or substitution effects of these subsidies but not together. Using constrained cost minimization as the framework it offers formal proofs to show that cost increases are inevitable if the total effects of the subsidies are considered, and that total factor productivity growth results from increasing amounts of subsidies under economies of scale and in the absence of technical change. Applications of the decomposition equations derived to a sample of transit systems finds near constant returns to scale and negative contributions of these subsidies to total factor productivity growth. Technical change reverses this decline and results in total factor productivity growth. Further, it finds that the lump-sum effects of the subsidies reduce total factor productivity more than does the substitution effect.     

Optimal synthesis of function generation in steering linkages

This paper presents an approach to optimize planar mechanisms for function generation synthesis. It is applied to the design of different steering linkages used in road vehicles where the Ackermann condition is formulated as the objective function. Four different mechanisms are kinematically defined and synthesized in terms of the proposed method. Limitations of the size of the elements are also considered by means of inequality constraints. Solutions are presented as the difference between desired behaviour, established by Ackermann, and actual generated performance. The results show that the accuracy achieved by the proposed procedure is satisfactory for working conditions in this type of linkages.     

Benthic sediment composition and nutrient cycling in an Intermittently Closed and Open Lake Lagoon

Surfical sediments within Corunna Lake, a moderate size Intermittently Closed and Open Lake Lagoon (ICOLL), were examined for solid phase nutrient concentrations (TN, TP, TOC,) and solute exchange rates between the sediment and water column (O₂, NO₃–N, NH₄–N, FRP, and N₂). The surfical sediments in Corunna Lake contained high concentrations of TN (5 mg/g dry mass), total phosphorus (0.6 mg/g dry mass), and TOC (~ 5% dry mass). The carbon stable isotope ratio (δ¹³C) and TOC:TN ratios (δ¹³C ~ ? 24, TOC:TN ~ 11–14) demonstrated that the composition of the organic matter in the sediment was a mixture derived primarily of degraded planktonic matter. The close association between TP and Fe concentrations highlighted the potential role Fe plays in mediating Filterable Reactive Phosphorus (FRP) concentrations in the water column of Corunna Lake. In situ benthic chamber incubations were used to measure benthic fluxes. Solute exchange rates between the sediment and water column in Corunna Lake were similar to other reported studies (O₂ = ? 469 to ? 1765 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1, NH₄–N = 0.1–63 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1, NO₂/NO₃–N = 0 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1, FRP = ? 4–1.6 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1and N₂ = 12–356 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1). As more carbon was deposited and mineralized the efficiency of the bacterial population to denitrify nitrogen in the sediment decreases. The linkage between land use and benthic biogeochemistry was also explored. A dairy farm exists in the middle catchment of Corunna Lake, and the receiving bay sediment consistently demonstrated the highest oxygen consumption rates in winter and spring (? 1408 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1 in winter, ? 1691 µmol m^? 2 h^? 1 in spring) and lowest denitrification efficiencies during summer (~ 3%). Nitrate/nitrite fluxes were not observed during any of the chamber incubations, with the concentrations of nitrate/nitrite being below detection limits (< 10 μg/L). Seasonal changes influenced the rates of solute exchange between the sediment and water column. Critical measures of solute exchange for NH₄–N and biogenic N₂ indicated that seasonal temperature changes play a significant role in mediating the reaction rates of sedimentary based biogeochemical processes. Measurable FRP fluxes were small but greater in the benthic sediments which received higher carbon inputs. Sediments have a high capacity to adsorb P which is released as sediment oxygen demand increases as a result of increases in labile carbon loads.     

Modelling journey‐to‐work fuel consumption: a case study of Bayridge subdivision

Fuel consumption is calculated using a modelling procedure for automobiles travelling on three alternative street patterns designed for a subdivision in Kingston Township, Ontario. The modelling procedure is described. The results indicate that grid and solar superblock street patterns, compared to the existing street pattern, offer small fuel savings to a tripmaker in the portion of the work trip travelled in the subdivision.