Terminal investment timing decisions in a competitive setting with uncertainty using a real option approach

This paper uses a real option approach to analyze terminal investment timing decisions for situations in which a port faces competition from its rivals in an uncertain market. We propose a network model to describe carriers’ cargo routing decisions and competition among rival ports. We then transform this model into a multicommodity flow problem and use the column generation algorithm to solve it. After obtaining a port’s possible future annual revenues and the potential net present value (NPV) for its terminal construction project through the network model, we adopt the expanded NPV rule and transform the investment timing decision into an optimal stopping problem. A least squares Monte Carlo simulation algorithm is proposed to find the investing probabilities for future years. The proposed models are applied to a steel cargo terminal investment case in the Port of Bengbu in Anhui province of China. The impacts on the investing probability and the expanded NPV of changes in the demand volatility, the initial investment and the port discharging rate are analyzed to provide managerial insights for port managers.     

Long marine shafting alignment and optimization considering propeller hydrodynamic force in wake field北大核心CSCD

[目的]针对计入螺旋桨水动力的舰船轴系校中计算,传统方法通常容易忽略船体伴流场的影响,使得螺旋桨水动力计算的结果与真实值之间存在较大偏差,从而导致轴系校中精度下降。[方法]以某舰船长轴系为对象,建立桨-轴-船一体化有限元模型及其伴流场流域模型,利用CFD数值仿真的叠模方法计算螺旋桨水动力;采用流固耦合法将流体计算结果作用于螺旋桨表面,进行轴系校中计算,并得到螺旋桨水动力对轴系整体挠曲线及各轴承状态参数的影响规律。在此基础上,引入多目标优化算法开展轴系多目标优化校中,来解决轴系末端四套轴承间载荷差值过大的问题。[结果]考虑螺旋桨水动力后,轴系尾部挠度变化减小,越靠近螺旋桨处的轴承其载荷所受影响越大,载荷值随进速系数的增大而减小;对比多目标优化前后的轴系校中状态,轴系各轴承之间的载荷差值明显减小,轴系运行状态得到改善。[结论]所提方法提高了计入螺旋桨水动力的轴系校中计算精度,可为轴系校中质量的提升提供参考。     

Experimental study of controlling tip clearance flow in a pump-jet propulsor北大核心CSCD

[Objective]This paper aims to suppress the adverse effects of tip clearance flow on the hydrodynamic performance and unsteady excitation force of a pump-jet propulsor. [Method]As for the pre-swirl stator pump-jet propulsor, an annular flexible seal structure closely matched with a rotor tip ring is used to study the validity of suppressing the clearance flow on the rotor tip. The rotor thrust and torque of the propulsor are measured by keeping the shroud approximately rigidly fixed, enabling the rotor open water efficiency to be obtained. In addition, the point of cavitation inception at each design condition is observed and recorded carefully with the help of a high-power stroboscope, and the cavitation inception curves of the propulsor with/without tip clearance are obtained through calculation. Finally, tests of shaft vibration acceleration on the pump-jet propulsor with/without tip clearance are conducted under conditions of cavitation and non-cavitation in order to evaluate the effects of diminishing tip clearance. [Results]The results show that the thrust and torque of the rotor of the pump-jet propulsor with a flexible seal structure are significantly increased, which in turn renders open water efficiency significantly increased at low and medium advance coefficients, unchanged near the design point and slightly decreased at the high advance coefficient. Moreover, the cavitation performance of the pump-jet propulsor without clearance is better at a wide range of advance coefficient, 0.85 相似文献