Wanting to travel,more or less: Exploring the determinants of the deficit and surfeit of personal travel

This study investigates the determinants of peoples desire to increase or decrease the amount of travel they do. We use data from 1,357 working commuters, residents of three different neighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. The dependent variables are indicators of Relative Desired Mobility for ten categories of travel (short- and long-distance overall and by several mode- and purpose-specific categories). These variables are measured on a five-point ordinal scale ranging from much less to much more, through which the respondents indicated the amount of travel they want to do (in the category in question) compared to what they are doing now. Censored ordered probit models were developed for these variables, with explanatory variables including general travel attitudes, specific liking for travel in each of the same separate categories, objective and subjective measures of the amount currently traveled in each category, and personality, lifestyle, and socio-demographic characteristics. The results support the hypotheses that the liking for travel has a strong positive impact, and subjective qualitative assessments of mobility have a strong negative impact, on the desire to increase ones travel. Finally, a number of general types of effects on Relative Desired Mobility were identified, among them complementarity and substitution effects. The results of this study can provide policy makers and researchers with new and valuable insight into key principles that affect individual travel demand.     

The importance of being early

This research quantifies the relationship between the cost of earliness and lateness by empirically observing commute trips from two different sources. The first empirical analysis uses individual level travel survey data from six metropolitan regions while the second analysis uses traffic data from the Twin Cities freeway network. The analysis conducted in this research provides a method to estimate the ratio of the costs of earliness to lateness for different datasets. This can be a useful tool for traffic engineers and planners, to assist them in the development and implementation of improved control strategies for congested cities. The results also corroborates the hypothesis of earliness being less expensive than lateness and show that the finding holds steady over time and across different regions and levels.     

Ship selection using a multiple-criteria synthesis approach

A method is presented for selecting a preferred ship from a group of candidates as a reference ship for a new design. The method is based on a recently developed approach for multiple-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty, the evidential reasoning approach. Using this method, both quantitative and qualitative attributes of a complicated nature can be considered in the selection process. The method consists of three phases: identifying suitable candidate ships, evaluating them in terms of both conventional techno-economical and qualitative attributes, and aggregating all the attributes using the evidential reasoning approach. This three-phase procedure is illustrated by means of an oil tanker selection example. The results of this study show that the evidential reasoning approach can support multiple-criteria ship selection processes when both qualitative and quantitative information with or without uncertainties have to be taken into account. The outcomes generated by the method include the ranking of the candidate ships and indications of their strengths and weaknesses in the format of performance distributions over different assessment grades. Such information is vital in helping decision makers to make an informed selection and be aware of any risk implication associated with the selection.     

Influence of tacking sequence on residual stress and distortion of single sided fillet submerged arc welded joint

Submerged arc welding (SAW) is advantageous for joining high thickness materials in large structure due to high material deposition rate. The non-uniform heating and cooling generates the thermal stresses and subsequently the residual stresses and distortion. The longitudinal and transverse residual stresses and angular distortion are generally measured in large panel structure of submerged arc welded fillet joints. Hence, the objective of this present work is to quantify the amount of residual stress and distortion in and around the weld joint due to positioning of stiffeners tack. The tacking sequence influences the level of residual stress and proper controlling of tacking sequences is required to minimize the stress. In present study, an elasto-plastic material behavior is considered to develop the thermo mechanical model which predicts the residual stress and angular distortion with varying tacking sequences. The simulated result reveals that the tacking sequence heavily influences the residual stress and deformation pattern of the single sided fillet joint. The finite element based numerical model is calibrated by comparing the experimental data from published literature. Henceforth, the angular distortions are measured from an in-house developed experimental set-up. A fair agreement between the predicted and experimental results indicates the robustness of the developed numerical model. However, the most significant conclusion from present study states that tack weld position should be placed opposite to the fillet weld side to minimize the residual stress.     

Installation strength analysis of subsea flowline jumpers

Subsea flowline jumper (FJ) is basic connection component for the wet oil tree, the subsea pipeline and the riser base, playing an irreplaceable role in the subsea production system. During the installation of FJ, collisions often happen between FJ and other equipment, which may cause serious damage. Besides, as the operating water depth increases, the demand for the installation equipments like the crane and winch will increase. The research of deepwater FJ installation in China is still in the primary stage, so an installation method for deepwater FJ is proposed in this paper. Finite element models of a typical M-shape FJ installation system were built to simulate the installation procedures. Analysis results showed that the installation steps designed for the FJ are feasible and valid for deepwater FJ. In order to ensure the safety of the installation process, the collision-sensitive analysis for the FJ was conducted, and results show that it is necessary to set the pick up speed at a proper value, in order to avoid collision in installation process. Besides, the mechanical characteristics of FJ during the installation were investigated under a range of environmental conditions and it was found that the maximum stress of the FJ always happens at its central position. The basic requirements for the installation equipment were also obtained through the analysis of the main installation steps.     

PM10 concentrations and the size distribution of Cu and Fe-containing particles in Istanbul’s subway system

In this study, PM₁₀ concentrations, as well as the size distributions of Fe-containing and Cu-containing particles are measured in six subway stations in Istanbul. The average daily PM₁₀ concentrations are found to vary considerably. They were also found to be significantly higher than the levels found at urban air quality stations. Further, the relative abundance of Fe-containing particles among the particles of size >2.1 μm collected in the metro stations is 3.5-8 times higher than in the in the Istanbul atmosphere.     

Financial lessons from Asian experience in constructing and operating high speed train networks

A serious interest in high speed train has been increasing all over the world. However, recent experiences in Asian countries show that high speed rail projects are not financially viable even in areas seemingly favorable to rail operations. Considering the existing intensive highway and airline network, putting public subsidies to high speed rail projects are barely justifiable from a purely economic point of view. What is required of any government which contemplates high speed rail construction as a policy option is to show taxpayers the cost/revenues difference between constructing a high speed rail line and expanding a capacity of other means, before proceeding.     

Uncertain benefits: Application of Bayesian melding to the Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle

Uncertainty is inherent in major infrastructure projects, but public decision-making for such projects ignores it. We investigate the uncertainty about the future effects of tearing down the Alaskan Way Viaduct in downtown Seattle, using an integrated model of housing, jobs, land use and transportation, on outcomes including average commute times. Our methodology combines the urban simulation model UrbanSim with the regional transportation model. We assess uncertainty using Bayesian melding, yielding a full predictive distribution of average commute times on 22 different routes in 2020. Of these routes, 14 do not include the viaduct and eight do. For the 14 base routes that do not include the viaduct, the predictive distributions overlap substantially, and so there is no indication that removing the viaduct would increase commute times for these routes. For each of the eight routes that do include the viaduct, the 95% predictive interval for the difference in average travel times between the two scenarios includes zero, so there is not strong statistical support for the conclusion that removing the viaduct would lead to any increase in travel times. However, the median predicted increase is positive for each of these routes, with an average of 6 min, suggesting that there may be some measurable increase in travel time for drivers that use the viaduct as a core component of their commute.     

Wave impact underneath horizontal decks

The problem of water impact on a fixed horizontal platform deck from regular incident waves was studied. Two-dimensional potential flow was assumed, and the resulting boundary-value problem was solved by three alternative numerical methods, a method based on a generalization of the impact theory by Wagner, and two different nonlinear boundary-element methods. The Wagner-based method used a von Karman approach during the water exit phase, i.e., when the wetted surface decreases. Experiments of the impact on an idealized platform deck have been performed to validate the theory. Comparisons show that the Wagner-based method yields good results for the water entry phase, when the wetted deck area increases, but poor results when the wetted area diminishes. The boundary-element methods compare well with experiments for the entire impact process. A Kutta condition is necessary at the aft body–free surface intersection during water exit and when the flow separates from the aft edge. Gravity effects matter for the water exit phase.