Effect of Seismic Parameters on the Safety Factor for an Underground Cavern北大核心CSCD

In order to quantitatively evaluate the safety of the surrounding rock of an underground cavern under seis-mic load, a comprehensive evaluation method for the stability of surrounding rock is proposed based on the general safety factor and point safety factor. A calculation method for the general safety factor of a cavern based on the prin-ciple of shear strength reduction of a rock mass is given, the run-through of the plastic zone between the main power-house and main transformer room is presented as a critical criterion for the overall instability of the cavern, and the general safety factor is obtained by searching for the reduction coefficient. A point safety factor calculation method based on the Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion is given. The influence of different seismic input parameters on the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions are studied based on an underground power-house cavern of a hydropower station in Southwest China. The results show that the quantitative evaluation method for the stability of the surrounding rock based on the safety factor is feasible and can reflect the general safety de-gree and local safety degree of different positions of the cavern for different working conditions. It is found that the general safety factor of the cavern and the point safety factor of key positions decrease with an increase of the ampli-tude and duration of a seismic wave while they increase with an increase of the incident angle; additionally, the low frequency of a seismic wave has a great influence on the cavern while the high frequency has little effect. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.     

Activity patterns,time use,and travel of millennials: a generation in transition?

Millennials, defined in this study as those born between 1979 and 2000, became the largest population segment in the United States in 2015. Compared to recent previous generations, they have been found to travel less, own fewer cars, have lower driver’s licensure rates, and use alternative modes more. But to what extent will these differences in behaviour persist as millennials move through various phases of the lifecycle? To address this question, this paper presents the results of a longitudinal analysis of the 2003–2013 American Time Use Survey data series. In early adulthood, younger millennials (born 1988–1994) are found to spend significantly more time in-home than older millennials (born 1979–1985), which indicates that there are substantial differences in activity-time use patterns across generations in early adulthood. Older millennials are, however, showing activity-time use patterns similar to their prior generation counterparts as they age, although some differences – particularly in time spent as a car driver – persist. Millennials appear to exhibit a lag in adopting the activity patterns of predecessor generations due to delayed lifecycle milestones (e.g. completing their education, getting jobs, marrying, and having children) and lingering effects of the economic recession, suggesting that travel demand will resume growth in the future.     

Contracting in highway maintenance and rehabilitation: Are spatial effects important?

Highway agencies around the world strive to improve practices for infrastructure maintenance and rehabilitation, using project delivery policies that range from total ‘in-house’ responsibility to complete privatization, with a number of flexible contracting policies such as performance-based contracting, variants of design-build-maintain, and lane rentals among others between these two extremes. In this paper, we present a methodology that duly accounts for underlying spatial effects and estimates the expected cost savings of innovative contracting policies for highway maintenance and rehabilitation relative to in-house execution of these activities. Spatial econometric modeling is used to analyze highway contract data from 49 countries. We also investigate the marginal effects of key explanatory variables on contract cost savings using spatial multipliers. Our findings show that there are significant relationships between cost savings and contract characteristics, and that there is an apparent direct relationship between the average cost savings of contracts in a country and contract average cost savings and contract sizes in neighboring countries.     

Red-light cameras at intersections: Estimating preferences using a stated choice model

Red-light cameras placed at intersections have the potential to increase safety, but they are often viewed as an invasion of privacy. Preferences for these cameras were explored using a stated choice model that presents key attributes of camera placements. Stated choice models involve careful experimental design, akin to experimental control in laboratory settings. A variety of design approaches were used, settling on a composition of the choice sets people face in the survey. To illustrate the approach, an internet survey was used with a convenience sample containing a high percentage of college students. The results show that while not the case independently, as the number of cameras and fines for violators are simultaneously increased, the preferences for one particular red light cameras program are likely to improve.     

Prospects for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in the United States and Japan: A general equilibrium analysis

The plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) may offer a potential near term, low-carbon alternative to today’s gasoline- and diesel-powered vehicles. A representative vehicle technology that runs on electricity in addition to conventional fuels was introduced into the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model as a perfect substitute for internal combustion engine (ICE-only) vehicles in two likely early-adopting markets, the United States and Japan. We investigate the effect of relative vehicle cost and all-electric range on the timing of PHEV market entry in the presence and absence of an advanced cellulosic biofuels technology and a strong (450 ppm) economy-wide carbon constraint. Vehicle cost could be a significant barrier to PHEV entry unless fairly aggressive goals for reducing battery costs are met. If a low-cost PHEV is available we find that its adoption has the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions, refined oil demand, and under a carbon policy the required CO₂ price in both the United States and Japan. The emissions reduction potential of PHEV adoption depends on the carbon intensity of electric power generation. Thus, the technology is much more effective in reducing CO₂ emissions if adoption occurs under an economy-wide cap and trade system that also encourages low-carbon electricity generation.     

Assessing the CO2 impact of current and future rail track in the UK

This paper investigates the CO₂ impact of current and future UK rail track and estimates the material, process and transport emissions associated with construction, maintenance and end-of-life activities for designs at high and low traffic loads. Analysis shows that for current track configurations, track with concrete sleepers has the lowest CO₂ impact, followed by steel, hardwood and softwood. Several potential future rail track designs have been analysed including embedded rail and double and quadruple-headed rail. All future track designs have a lower impact than current designs, but this improvement is more marked at high traffic loads. Up to a 40% reduction in CO₂ impact could be achieved if the UK rail network was to move from conventional track design to a double-headed embedded rail design. Key levers for reducing the CO₂ impact of track are identified as service life extension, traffic load reduction and the selection of low impact track designs.     

Estimation of the effects of aircraft noise on residential satisfaction

This study assesses the effects of aircraft noise on residential satisfaction, an important indicator of subjective well-being. A structural equation model is specified that estimates the relationships between objective variables, noise annoyance variables and residential satisfaction. Secondary data-analysis is used to estimate the model. The survey was conducted in 1996/1997 among the population living within a 25-km radius of Amsterdam Schiphol, the largest airport in the Netherlands. The effect of aircraft noise annoyance is found to be relatively small. In addition, the objective level of aircraft noise exposure is found to be a better predictor of residential satisfaction than its subjective counterpart. The most important determinants of residential satisfaction are found to be road traffic noise annoyance, age and neighbor noise annoyance.     

Non-trading,lexicographic and inconsistent behaviour in stated choice data

This paper discusses a number of issues relating to the pre-analysis and cleaning of stated choice data, where we look specifically at the problems caused by non-trading, lexicographic and inconsistent response patterns. We argue that this process is considerably more complex and challenging than many in the field have hitherto acknowledged, with the standard practice being the use of rather ad hoc procedures for the identification of these phenomena. A detailed analysis on four different stated choice datasets highlights the potential impacts of these methods on model estimation results.     

A hybrid model for better predicting capabilities under parallel wind conditions for NOx concentrations from highways in Ireland

Atmospheric dispersion models based on the Gaussian line source formulation tend to give poor results for low wind speed and parallel wind directions. Certain dispersion models like HIWAY-2 have an inbuilt dispersion algorithm to adjust in such situations but no correction exists for mathematical based Gaussian dispersion models. We evaluate the performance of a hybrid model a mathematical model, to assess its suitability as an alternative to the Gaussian based models.