An analysis of seasonality of non-OPEC supply

The purpose of this study is first to find out whether quarterly averages of non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply follow a seasonal pattern. If that is mathematically established, then, second, it is attempted to estimate the best seasonal factors to decompose the forecast yearly average into quarterly averages. A set of historical data consisting of quarterly supply averages of individual countries, regional subtotals and the aggregate non-OPEC supply for the period 1973-2002 forms the basis of the analysis. The study applies Fourier analysis to quarterly supply series to test for seasonality, and provides estimates of seasonal factors for the years 2000-2002 by applying the so-called X-11 decomposition method to the historical annual averages. The accuracy of the results of the application of X-11 is then tested. It is demonstrated that the combination of the Fourier and X-11 methods provides mostly acceptable and in some cases, such as that of China, impressively accurate forecast quarterly supply averages.     

Development of an Anti-Lock Brake System for Motorcycle

An Anti-Lock Brake System (ABS) system is developed for motorcycles using different control laws to improve the safety during emergent braking conditions. The mechanical design problem is first investigated so as to modify a scooter to be equipped with the proposed ABS brake system and to set up experimental test stand. For ABS control, the slip control, P1R3, and P2R4 methods are used to implement the controller using an Intel 80196KC single chip microcomputer. The hard-ware-in-the-loop (HITL) simulation is also performed in PC to check the performance in various road conditions including dry and wet roads. It is found experimentally that both P1R3 and P2R4 can both achieve ABS function, but P2R4 performs more desirably than P1R3 method.     

低同步串级调速系统转差功率反馈方式的研究

绕线式异步电机转差功率反馈到电网进行调速的方法已在许多工业部门得到广泛应用,但由于调速过程中转子电势将低于电网电压,因而这种调速方式需要在电网与逆变器之间接入一个升压变压器。本文提出了一种省去升压变压器和直接将转差功率反馈到定子绕组的新的串级调速方法。文中对定子绕组反馈点的选择、等效电路数模及主要参数作了分析,并在一台改制的绕线式异步电机上作了试验,结果表明这种调速方法除经济简便外,仍具有优良的调速性能。     

What are we going to do about public transportation?

Traffic congestion in the world's metropolitan areas is going from bad to worse. Urban/suburban transportation has become like the weather; people talk a lot about it but shrug it away as something they can't do much about. This is a world-wide phenomenon, as motor vehicle use grows, and as urban sprawl continues.     

An investigation of passenger interchange and train standing time at LRT stations: (ii) Estimation of standing time

The standing-time of trains at urban rail stations is pertinent to determining the line capacity and fleet size. The assumption of uniform boarding and alighting leads to under-estimation of the standing time. It is shown that the train standing-time is related to the fraction of boarders and the maximum demand for boarding and alighting at a door. It is further shown that the probability distribution of passengers at a door depends on the platform entrance locations. A methodology that takes into account the above factors is proposed for estimating the train standing-time.     

The compressive behavior of advanced double hull structure—A review of current research at David Taylor

It has long been recognized that the compressive behavior of primary ship structural components plays a vital role in the design of surface ship hulls. This is equally as true for the new advanced double hull concept as it is for the more conventional surface ship configurations. What is different, however, is the nature of the structural mechanics phenomena which must be addressed due to the double hull's more radical departure from conventional design and construction practices. With increasing interest and attention being shown in this new concept, the David Taylor Model Basin has over the past few years initiated a number of research efforts which have and are continuing to address various aspects of the behavior of double hulls and their components to primary compressive loadings. These studies have as their ultimate goal the development of practical, user oriented design methods for double hull structure and as such currently focus on more approximate, rather than mathematically rigorous, approaches to the various structural phenomena being considered. This paper is in essence a progress report on a selected number of these efforts and describes the results achieved to date as well as the ongoing efforts and those planned for the future. This report focuses primarily on three recent studies: (1) a preliminary look at the relative significance of local versus general instability failure of double hull structure; (2) small scale experimental analysis of double hull sections using rigid vinyl modelling; and (3) the application of beam-on-elastic-foundation analysis methods for high aspect stiffened plates as it relates to double hull structure. In addition to these major topics, the report also includes a brief discussion of other ongoing and planned efforts relevant to the advanced double hull.     

The port-routeing behaviour of short-sea ship operators; theory and practice

This paper provides an interpretation of a port-routeing pattern of short-sea shipping services which has emerged in recent years. After basic definition. a macro theory of port routeing is presented together with an examination of the business environment of operation. Greater refinement is subsequently added with reference to the behavioural characteristics displayed by a number of individual ship operating companies in port routeing as revealed by a series of in-depth interviews. Specific illustration is provided by the Great Britian-Frances market and the paper concludes by suggesting some factors to influence the development of the future port-routeing pattern.     

A note on using Davidson's function in equilibrium assignment

This paper describes the use of the Davidson congestion function in modelling network flows using equilibrium assignment. A modification to the function is given, which defines the function over all flows values, and consequently removes computational difficulties noted in earlier studies. The modification requires the inclusion of an additional model parameter, and the selection of a suitable value for this parameter is studied for two sets of data. The modified Davidson function is also compared to two alternative functions; a step-wise linear function and a quartic polynomial function, which have both been proposed as congestion functions. Comparisons are made between observed link volumes and the assigned volumes from these models. It is concluded that the modified Davidson function is useful for inclusion in an equilibrium assignment model, given its ability to reflect differences in network link type (e.g. capacity and speed) and environment through its parameters, the conceptual advantage of the function through its derivation from queueing theory, and the previous discovery of reliable methods for estimating its parameters. A value of about 0.8–0.9 is suggested for the parameter (μ, 0 < μ < 1) introduced in the modification.     

Wheel/Rail Contact: Geometrical Study*

Before trying to ascertain the precise nature of the Wheel-Rail contact (internal stresses and strains, wear and friction, security against a derailment, dynamic behaviour of the vehicle, etc.) the geometrical problem must necessarily be solved. That is, for each position of the wheelset (this is defined by 6 parameters, of which only 4 are independent) the two dependent parameters and the coordinates of the points of contact of each wheel, and rail must be obtained. A new method is proposed of obtaining the spatial position of a wheelset with reference to the rails, from the most general point of view.