How optimal was the Sydney Metro contract?: Comparison with international best practice

The New South Wales (NSW) government created the Sydney Metro Authority to design, build and operate a completely separate underground Metro rail system to supplement the existing public transport network in Sydney. By the time the NSW government abruptly cancelled the entire Metro project in early 2010, the Authority had conceived and designed a contract that was proceeding to procurement. This paper compares the elements of the proposed Sydney Metro contract to findings of the literature on optimal contracting and optimal incentives and on PPP best practice. The paper concludes that the Metro seems to have at least implicitly drawn fairly heavily on best practices and principles, but that its ultimate failure to be implemented is an instructive lesson about how operating environment can impede integration of useful knowledge and experience.     

A sequential approach to exploiting the combined strengths of SP and RP data: Application to freight shipper choice

The possibility of and procedure for pooling RP and SP data have been discussed in recent research work. In that literature, the RP data has been viewed as the yardstick against which the SP data must be compared. In this paper we take a fresh look at the two data types. Based on the peculiar strengths and weaknesses of each we propose a new, sequential approach to exploiting the strengths and avoiding the weaknesses of each data source. This approach is based on the premise that SP data, characterized by a well-conditioned design matrix and a less constrained decision environment than the real world, is able to capture respondents' tradeoffs more robustly than is possible in RP data. (This, in turn, results in more robust estimates of share changes due to changes in independent variables.) The RP data, however, represent the current market situation better than the SP data, hence should be used to establish the aggregate equilibrium level represented by the final model. The approachfixes the RP parameters for independent variables at the estimated SP parameters but uses the RP data to establish alternative-specific constants. Simultaneously, the RP data are rescaled to correct for error-in-variables problems in the RP design matrixvis-à- vis the SP design matrix. All specifications tested are Multinomial Logit (MNL) models.The approach is tested with freight shippers' choice of carrier in three major North American cities. It is shown that the proposed sequential approach to using SP and RP data has the same or better predictive power as the model calibrated solely on the RP data (which is the best possible model for that data, in terms of goodness-of-fit figures of merit), when measured in terms of Pearson's Chi-squared ratio and the percent correctly predicted statistic. The sequential approach is also shown to produce predictions with lower error than produced by the more usual method of pooling the RP and SP data.     

Reducing the climate change impacts of aviation by restricting cruise altitudes

Two of the ways in which air travel affects climate are the emission of carbon dioxide and the creation of high-altitude contrails. One possible impact reduction strategy is to significantly reduce the formation of contrails. This could be achieved by limiting the cruise altitude of aircraft. If implemented, this could severely constrain air space capacity, especially in parts of Europe. In addition, carbon emissions would likely be higher due to less efficient aircraft operation at lower cruise altitudes. This paper describes an analysis of these trade-offs using an air space simulation model as applied to European airspace. The model simulates the flight paths and altitudes of each aircraft and is here used to calculate emissions of carbon dioxide and changes in the journey time. For a one-day Western European traffic sample, calculations suggest annual mean CO₂ emissions would increase by only 4% if cruise altitudes were restricted to prevent contrail formation. The change in journey time depended on aircraft type and route, but average changes were less than 1 min. Our analysis demonstrates that altitude restrictions on commercial aircraft could be an effective means of reducing climate change impacts, though it will be necessary to mitigate the increased controller workload conflicts that this will generate.     

Impact of proposed federal limits on US bagged food aid shipments: reduction in MSF carrier profits—a risk assessment 1

This paper is a stochastic risk simulation of the impact of proposed federal tonnage limits on US Maritime Security Fleet (MSF) bagged food aid shipments. Only MSF (i.e. federally subsidized carriers/vessels for war, or emergencies) and non-MSF US carriers (therefore, at competitive disadvantage) can compete for such shipments—representing an indirect subsidy to both groups. To compensate, US Congress proposed a financial penalty (loss of voyage subsidy) on MSF carriers for food aid above a certain limit. Accordingly, certain carriers will be policy 'winners' (non-MSF—larger food aid shipments), and others 'losers' (MSF). By simulating loss-minimizing economic behaviour by MSF carriers—using five stochastic factors—I obtain losses substantially below those claimed by the MSF owners.

Simulated annual-average MSF profits reduction is $3.5 million—within a large confidence interval; if no carriers surrender their subsidies (as claimed by MSF owners), a reduction of $6.0 million. Only 16% of annual MSF voyages are affected by a 2,500-ton limit (3%; 5,000-ton limit). Minimizing losses, 25 (of 41 affected) annual MSF voyages replace 38,000 tons of food aid with 23,000 tons of other cargo—forgoing $2.1 million in yearly direct subsidies. Two assumptions explain most of this simulated loss reduction.     

Active Suspension Control to Improve Vehicle Ride and Handling

In practice most active vehicle suspension work can be traced to two sources, Lotus' modal control and Karnopp's skyhook damper. A model is developed which allows comparison of different active suspension control algorithms. The Lotus modal control algorithm is reviewed, and compared with Karnopp's skyhook damper. It is shown that a tight inner closed loop allows the Lotus algorithm to achieve the inertial damping described by Kamopp for a single comer or quarter car. It is suggested that to achieve simultaneously high inertial damping and good disturbance rejection an inner force loop is desirable. A vehicle control scheme is presented which combines the Lotus modal decomposition with Karnopp's skyhook damper, allowing nearly optimal ride and simultaneously permitting modification of vehicle handling properties.     

Impacts of Terrestrial and Shoreline Stressors on Eelgrass in Puget Sound: An Expert Elicitation

We used expert elicitation to examine potential responses of eelgrass to several restoration strategies in Puget Sound. Restoration strategies included shoreline armor removal and modification, removal and modification of overwater structures, and efforts to improve water clarity via reductions in anthropogenic nutrient and sediment loadings. Expert responses indicated a general belief that reducing stressors would increase eelgrass cover; however, responses varied greatly among stressors. Our analyses revealed that removal of overwater structures, nutrient loading and shoreline armoring will have significantly larger effects on eelgrass recovery than would removal of sediment loading, with removal of overwater structures having the largest effect. We then used a probabilistic model to estimate what actions, singularly or in combination, could yield a large increase in eelgrass cover. Reducing single stressors could, in theory, result in recovery of eelgrass in Puget Sound; however, the magnitude of actions required would be so great that it is likely not practical. In contrast, we identified combinations of smaller reductions of stressors that could achieve significant eelgrass recovery. For example, a 40% reduction in overwater structures, combined with 20% reductions in shoreline armor, and nutrient and sediment loadings, was predicted to be one of the more feasible combinations of actions for meeting the target. The importance of eelgrass to Puget requires prompt input of scientific advice, and this work fills an important knowledge gap in the face of rapidly approaching legislative deadlines. While coded expert opinion of the sort we use here is a weak substitute for data, our work clarifies the current extent of scientific uncertainty that can guide management action in the near term and scientific research in the long term.     

重载货车车轮热负荷问题的探讨

讨论了重载货车制动热负荷对车轮的影响,简要回顾在这方面已经取得的研究成果,并提供了计算机仿真分析的几个典型热制动工况下的应力和温度场结果,包括坡道制动工况和停车制动工况。对手制动作用于运行车轮的工况进行了分析,检验了不同闸瓦作用位置对温度场的影响,并介绍了与热负荷相关的车轮更换问题。