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551.
The nature of the global economy is one of dynamic change. Shipping is a service industry with its demand related to changes in international trade levels and patterns. As a consequence shipping is subject to sometimes unpredictable swings in demand so that the operator is required to make strategic planning decisions while navigating through boom or bust environments. While boom economies generate rising freight rates which are welcomed and encourage investment, ship operators may also have to face falling freight demand and declining freight rates that may have significant impact on profitability, often falling to uneconomic levels for extended periods. In such a period of uncertainty and declining profitability management will make operational decisions to reduce costs. However, shipping lines operate in a market environment so any decisions made to rationalize the trade may have significant long-term competitive implications. For example, traditional micro economic theory might suggest that the prudent strategy to adopt would be to close down the operation and reopen when the market conditions improve. In a world of certainty or when costs of taking this action are zero, this would be a valid strategy. However, because of fear of competitors taking up a line's market share if the shipping company exits, even temporarily, this strategy cannot be valued simply in terms of shut-down and start-up costs. A further consideration is the fact that standard capital budgeting techniques, such as Net Present Value (NPV), cannot incorporate the flexibility to respond to new information and strategic responses explicitly into their investment analysis. This paper will demonstrate the use of Real Option Analysis (ROA) to provide guidelines for decisions about closing operations in adverse market conditions. 相似文献
552.
The maritime industry operates in a dynamic global environment subject to a great number of variables. In this context, the investment challenge facing shipowners is correctly to value alternate mutually exclusive investment strategies before proceeding with confidence to commit to a project which will add the greatest value to the firm. To survive in the competitive market environment shipping companies must be flexible. Companies that rely solely on traditional discounted cash flow analysis may be underestimating the true value of their investment by not valuing any embedded real options specifically. To avoid misallocation of resources, the true value of these embedded options (strategies) should be recognised and quantified where possible for inclusion in the capital budgeting process. Using real options analysis, (ROA), as a development of the financial pricing advances of the 1970s, flexibility is valued like a financial option using non-arbitrage and added to the present value of the original strategy to derive the present value of the flexible strategy. The more uncertainty (risk) present, the greater will be the value of the real options. Similarly, the larger the shipowner's portfolio of options (strategies) from which to choose, the greater will be the valuation of the project. Real options give the shipowner the flexibility to exchange one risky income stream associated with one strategy for that of another. The analysis shows that if managers have the flexibility of more than one embedded option (in this paper, a European put associated with a replacement investment and an option on the maximum of two operating strategies, trading or chartering out) then the project will have greater value than if the there was no choice or if it was limited to one or the other strategy. Sensitivity analysis extends the analysis to demonstrate that if the volatilities of the risky income streams are highly correlated then the additional value of this flexibility will diminish. 相似文献
553.
公交普线规划因服务对象时间、空间的分散性,是大城市公交系统中最难规划的部分。本文分析了大规模多中心城市地区公交网络分层级功能及规划次序,重点针对普线网提出基于运营商和用户广义成本最低的连续体近似法模型搭建方法。通过确定区域网络的普线总服务距离,总停靠站数,以及发车间隔等决策变量的最佳值,使公交运营企业和乘客在单位时间内的广义预期成本最小化。利用本文提出的方法,对北京市进行区域划分,重新优化普线网,并基于北京市路网和兴趣点分布,校核规划的理想网络,得到能够实施的设计网络。相比现状网络,优化后的方案在成本控制和乘客出行体验方面都得到明显提升,分别减少企业运营成本5%,减少乘客出行时间21%,达到了降本增效的目标。 相似文献
554.