Allowing for heterogeneous decision rules in discrete choice models: an approach and four case studies

The study of respondent heterogeneity is one of the main areas of research in the field of choice modelling. The general emphasis is on variations across respondents in relative taste parameters while maintaining the assumption of homogeneous utility maximising decision rules. While recent work has allowed for differences in the utility specification across respondents in the context of looking at heterogeneous information processing strategies, the underlying assumption that all respondents employ the same choice paradigm remains. This is despite evidence in the literature that different paradigms work differently well on given datasets. In this article, we argue that such differences may in fact extend to respondents within a single dataset. We accommodate these differences in a latent class model, where individual classes make use of different underlying paradigms. We present four applications using three different datasets, showing mixtures between “standard” random utility maximisation models and lexicography based models, models with multiple reference points, elimination by aspects models and random regret minimisation models. In each of the case studies, the behavioural mixing model obtains significant gains in fit over the base structure where all respondents are hypothesised to use the same rule. The findings offer important further insights into the behavioural patterns of respondents. There is also evidence that what is retrieved as taste heterogeneity in standard models may in fact be heterogeneity in decision rules.     

Modeling heterogeneous parking choice behavior on university campuses

Studies on campus parking indicate more severe problems and a wider range of characteristics than commercial parking because of limited parking places, special conditions, specific policies and enclosed space on university campuses. Heterogeneous characteristics are usually ignored in analyses of campus parking behavior. In this paper, a mixed logit model is applied to analyze parking choice behavior on a campus using data collected from a stated-preference survey of Tongji University, Shanghai, China. The heterogeneity of individuals with various sociodemographic characteristics is evaluated by interaction terms and random parameters. Comparison between the proposed approach and the conditional logit model shows that the results of the mixed logit model are more interpretable because they are not limited by the independence from irrelevant alternatives assumption. Key factors that have considerable effects on campus parking choices are identified and analyzed. Important regularities are also concluded from elasticity analyses. Finally, the campus is divided into two areas according to the walking distance to a new parking lot, and the modeling results show that area-specific policies should be established because the two areas have quite distinct parking choice features.     

Corporate social responsibility and service quality provision in shipping firms: financial synergies or trade-offs?

This study examines whether the implementation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) and provision of service quality (SQ) to satisfy shippers result in financial synergies or trade-offs for shipping firms. To address this question, a contingency framework was introduced in this study. The literature was first reviewed for hypotheses development, followed by interviews with eight industry practitioners. Subsequently, an internet survey was administered to 156 shipping firms in Singapore, and the obtained data were analysed using path model analysis and simple slope analysis. The results indicate that CSR complements SQ and provides additional but modest financial contribution to shipping firms via customer satisfaction. In addition, synergistic interactions between SQ and CSR were found. Although there are financial synergies from the implementation of CSR and provision of SQ, the analysis reveals that CSR should only be engaged when a shipping firm is fairly competent at delivering quality shipping services. This paper contributes to both theory and practice by framing business decisions on implementing CSR under contingency theory and offering a strategic approach to managing SQ as well as CSR of shipping firms.     

Climate change projections for variables affecting road networks in Europe

Global climate change will affect road networks during this century. The effects will be different in various parts of the world due to differences in local climate change and in the structure and properties of roads. In this paper, climate change projections are presented for climate variables that are most likely to affect the long-term performance of road networks in Europe. We apply four regional climate simulations up to the year 2100 using two plausible future emission scenarios. The results show that the changing climate will require significant adaptation measures in the near future in order to maintain the operability of the European road network.     

Forecasting road traffic conditions using a context-based random forest algorithm

With the ability to accurately forecast road traffic conditions several hours, days and even months ahead of time, both travellers and network managers can take pro-active measures to minimise congestion, saving time, money and emissions. This study evaluates a previously developed random forest algorithm, RoadCast, which was designed to achieve this task. RoadCast incorporates contexts using machine learning to forecast more accurately contexts such as public holidays, sporting events and school term dates. This paper evaluates the potential of RoadCast as a traffic forecasting algorithm for use in Intelligent Transport System applications. Tests are undertaken using a number of different forecast horizons and varying amounts of training data, and an implementation procedure is recommended.     

"虎豹"的塔塔时代预测

公司简介 CSM Worldwide公司（www．csmauto．com）,为全球650多个汽车整车制造商,汽车零部件供应商和其他经济组织提供全球汽车市场咨询和预测服务。公司总部位于北美底特律,在全球12个地区设有分公司或附属机构。中国公司总部设在上海。     

Reliable logistics networks design with facility disruptions

This paper studies a strategic supply chain management problem to design reliable networks that perform as well as possible under normal conditions, while also performing relatively well when disruptions strike. We present a mixed-integer programming model whose objective is to minimize the nominal cost (the cost when no disruptions occur) while reducing the disruption risk using the p-robustness criterion (which bounds the cost in disruption scenarios). We propose a hybrid metaheuristic algorithm that is based on genetic algorithms, local improvement, and the shortest augmenting path method. Numerical tests show that the heuristic greatly outperforms CPLEX in terms of solution speed, while still delivering excellent solution quality. We demonstrate the tradeoff between the nominal cost and system reliability, showing that substantial improvements in reliability are often possible with minimal increases in cost. We also show that our model produces solutions that are less conservative than those generated by common robustness measures.     

Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport: The Sixth International Conference,Cape Town,South Africa,September 1999 - Part 1

The ability of conventional South African travel analysis practices to analyse adequately the travel needs of the poor is examined. The origins and nature of conventional practices are described, and it is observed that typically their scope has been limited to motorized modes, commutes and peaks. The paper reports on the findings of an activity diary survey administered in Cape Town that extended the conventional scope of analysis. An activity‐based survey method was selected because it typically yields higher rates of trip recall than other methods and is therefore relatively well suited to investigating travel behaviour in its fuller complexity. Selected findings of the survey are presented to demonstrate that travel occurring by non‐motorized modes, for non‐work purposes and during off‐peak periods, is considerable. It is argued that the conventional limitation in analytical scope can create serious misconceptions of the true nature of travel behaviour, particularly of low‐income households. By restricting the focus of analysis to motorized, work and peak period trip‐making, there is a risk of a routine bias being introduced in the way the urban passenger transport problem is understood, and in the nature of the interventions that are implemented as a result.     

Procurement methods for automated guideway transit systems

Procurement of an Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) system is a relatively new process for many procuring agencies worldwide. Outside of large airports, no single transit market sector has enough experience to establish well proven procurement methodologies for innovative transit technologies. Several methods, however, have emerged recently which, together with more conventional approaches, make the decision making process quite complex. The objective of this article is to review currently used and recently considered procurement methods and recommend a methodology for their selection depending on specific project requirements.     

大型集装箱船和新巴拿马型船舶（NPX）

集装箱贸易显著的增长不仅表现在集装箱船队的总箱数已超过1100万箱，还表现在船的大小上。今天使用中的最大的集装箱船已超过1万箱。