Development of Beach Analysis Tools for Caribbean Small Islands

Beach erosion presents a hazard to coastal tourism facilities, which provide the main economic thrust for most Caribbean small islands (CSIs). Ad hoc approaches to addressing this problem have given way to the integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) approach, which recommends data collection, analysis of coastal processes, and assessment of impacts. UNESCO's Coast and Beach Stability in the Caribbean (COSALC) project has provided most CSIs with an opportunity to monitor their beaches and collect over 10 years of data. Research has been directed at integrating these data with geographic information systems (GIS) and other information technologies to develop a prototype beach analysis and management system (BAMS) for CSIs. This article presents the results of phase I development of this effort, which includes the development of tools for integrating spatial and non-spatial coastal data, estimating long-term beach erosion/accretion and sand volume change trends at individual beaches, identifying erosion-sensitive beaches, and mapping beach erosion hazards. The Southeast Peninsula, St. Kitts, is used as a case study to develop these tools and demonstrate system functionality.     

Shoreline Management Plans and Coastal Cells in Scotland

Coastal sediment cells have been identified for the Scottish coast and, following the example of England and Wales, a trend is emerging towards the production of shoreline management plans (SMPs) for parts the Scottish coast. However, much of the Scottish coast does not have the degree of intracoastal sediment exchange that gives coastal sediment cells their integrity, and so a cell-based strategy for coastal management may not be a suitable response. This article examines the nature of the sediment cells in Scotland, questions whether the adoption of SMPs for all sections of the coastline is an appropriate management response, and suggests alternatives that may better link to integrated coastal zone management.     

Impacts of Terrestrial and Shoreline Stressors on Eelgrass in Puget Sound: An Expert Elicitation

We used expert elicitation to examine potential responses of eelgrass to several restoration strategies in Puget Sound. Restoration strategies included shoreline armor removal and modification, removal and modification of overwater structures, and efforts to improve water clarity via reductions in anthropogenic nutrient and sediment loadings. Expert responses indicated a general belief that reducing stressors would increase eelgrass cover; however, responses varied greatly among stressors. Our analyses revealed that removal of overwater structures, nutrient loading and shoreline armoring will have significantly larger effects on eelgrass recovery than would removal of sediment loading, with removal of overwater structures having the largest effect. We then used a probabilistic model to estimate what actions, singularly or in combination, could yield a large increase in eelgrass cover. Reducing single stressors could, in theory, result in recovery of eelgrass in Puget Sound; however, the magnitude of actions required would be so great that it is likely not practical. In contrast, we identified combinations of smaller reductions of stressors that could achieve significant eelgrass recovery. For example, a 40% reduction in overwater structures, combined with 20% reductions in shoreline armor, and nutrient and sediment loadings, was predicted to be one of the more feasible combinations of actions for meeting the target. The importance of eelgrass to Puget requires prompt input of scientific advice, and this work fills an important knowledge gap in the face of rapidly approaching legislative deadlines. While coded expert opinion of the sort we use here is a weak substitute for data, our work clarifies the current extent of scientific uncertainty that can guide management action in the near term and scientific research in the long term.     

Risk assessment: An introduction and critique

Abstract

Risk assessment is a methodology which has been used to evaluate the safety of major public projects, notably aerospace programs, liquefied natural gas import facilities, and nuclear power plants.

This article begins with a review of public attitudes toward risk and then describes the basic components of a risk assessment. Subsequent critical analysis suggests the pitfalls inherent in the technique, especially in regard to the establishing of a criterion of safety against which the results of a risk assessment will be compared. The author identifies three such criteria and rejects two of them, including the one most commonly used in federal government agency decision‐making, as unreliable or philosophically unacceptable.

The article concludes with comments on the applicability of risk assessment in coastal zone management.     

Public involvement in offshore oil development: Lessons from New England

Abstract

Public perceptions of the risks and benefits of offshore oil development off the New England coast are examined. The influence of these perceptions on state policies toward federal actions is analyzed. A distinct trend of issue identification, critical analysis, consensus building, and state or regional action is observed. Throughout this interactive process between the region and the federal government, even though divergent state positions have evolved, there is a growing regional acceptance of coastal zone management concepts.     

Identification and assessment of aquatic resources for power plant sites on Maryland's Eastern shore

Abstract

A power plant siting procedure which accounts for the protection and preservation of aquatic resources, defined as sensitive life forms and life stages of economically valuable species of finfish and shellfish, is presented as it was executed on Maryland's Eastern Shore. Negative effects of power plant development and operation are generated principally by the cooling water intake and discharge system. The site‐selection procedure is thus presented as a two‐faceted process, termed regional screening, requiring the separate but simultaneous identification of land‐based sites and cooling systems. Criteria included in regional screening for cooling systems reflected life‐sustaining processes essential to the maintenance of aquatic resources. Major sources of effects of power plants on aquatic resources and siting principles as they affect aquatic resources are defined. Information‐gathering techniques included extensive interviews with key research scientists, state personnel, and numerous Chesapeake Bay watermen.     

The opinions and attitudes of Louisiana's Coastal Zone residents toward outdoor recreational development: A perspective for planning and management

Abstract

In 1967, a new road facilitated access to a number of small, impoverished, rural communities in a marshy region along Mexico's Pacific coast. One of these—the only one situated on the Pacific shore—began to be visited by an increasing stream of tourists. This article discusses the severe sociocultural problems which the initial phase of tourism development caused in Teacapán, and argues that these are part of a syndrome which is manifest in similar situations worldwide. By anticipating this syndrome before tourism development gets underway, planners and managers of coastal tourism development in Third World nations would be better prepared to mitigate most of its severe effects.     

The demand for local access to coastal recreation in southern New England

Coastal lands provide popular outdoor recreation opportunities including beach recreation, fishing, boating, and wildlife viewing. Published studies measuring the demand for access to coastal lands generally have focused on the recreational value of intensively used beaches, which comprise only a portion of the New England coastline. This article examines the recreational demand for coastal access to a local, free‐access site in southern New England. The study uses data obtained from on‐site interviews conducted during the summer of 1995 at Gooseberry Island, Massachusetts. The estimated average value of a visitor‐day during the summer season is $3.06 for weekdays and $4.18 for weekends and holidays. While these values are at the low end of the range of values published in existing literature addressing beach recreation, the aggregate value of recreation benefits derived from public access to undeveloped coastal areas likely are significant.     

Optimal ship tracking on a navigation route between two ports: a hydrodynamics approach

The optimal trajectory from Calcutta port to Mumbai port is charted for a tanker transshipping from the East coast to the West coast of India during rough weather. Rough weather is simulated over Indian seas using the state-of-the-art WAM numerical wave model (WAMDI Group in J Phys Oceanogr 18:1775–1810, 1988), assimilating satellite (IRS-P4) wind fields. These simulated wave fields and two-dimensional (2D) directional wave spectrum are an absolute representation of the irregular seaway. Hence, the same for the monsoon month of August 2000 formed the input basis for this study. Loss of ship speed due to the wave field (i.e., nonlinear motion of the tanker in waves) and associated sea-keeping characteristics in the seaway are estimated (Bhattacharya in Dynamics of marine vehicles, Wiley, New York, 1978). The approach adopted in this paper is unique in that it takes into account both voluntary and involuntary speed reductions of the ship. It helps in ship tracking by the optimum route using inverse velocity as the weight function for the path in an efficient way. Dijkstra’s algorithm [Numer Math 1(3):269–271, 1959] is applied in an iterative manner for determining the optimum track. The optimum track information has broad scope for use in modern shipping industry for obtaining safe and least-time routing by avoiding schedule delays with economic fuel consumption.     

产能扩张带来质量隐患

从2009年中国取代美国成为世界上最大的汽车市场以来,汽车制造商已然进入了一场激烈的扩张竞赛。在过去两年里,数万亿元人民币涌入汽车制造行业。汽车制造商开始疯狂地扩大产能。按照这种扩张速度,中国的汽车年产能到201 3年将增至31 00万辆,达到2009年产能的两倍。而在中国开展业务的国际汽车制造商则显得保守一些。过去四年里,在占据全国乘用车一半产量的情况下,