An application of variance reduction techniques in freeway simulation

Computer simulation models are used in a variety of applications in transportation engineering and have become a prime aid in decision making. The applications range from evaluating traffic control strategies for single intersections to such complex decision processes as evaluating the impact of removing toll facilities at the George Washington Bridge in New York City. While it is widely accepted that simulation offers an unmatchable capability of evaluating alternate control policies, the high variance of the output variable presents a critical problem in such comparative analyses. The simulation models with high output variance must be run longer or replicated many times to achieve a desired precision level, and that corresponds to increased cost of computer resources. This paper describes and illustrates the application of variance reduction concepts that can improve the reliability and efficiency of the simulation experimental process by taking advantage of the simulation model structure. The two variance reduction concepts (common random numbers and antithetic variates) reduce the variance of the output variable by replacing the original sampling procedure with a new procedure that yields the same expected value but with a smaller variance. The application of the variance reduction concept was illustrated using results from experiments with a freeway simulation model. The results indicate that both common random numbers and antithetic variates sampling procedures appreciably reduce the variance of the simulation output measure.     

The design of liner shipping serives: the problem of feeder services versus multi-port-calls

In this paper, the authors outline the structure of liner shipping systems with special emphasis on the question of whether feeder services are superior in economic terms to the more traditional and commonly-used multi-port-calling system. They describe the theoretical advantages of the former over the latter, and develop a model by which the optimal conditions both operate in may be determined. This model is then applied to a real situation to ascertain whether the theory works in practice. They conclude that the shuuttle/feeder system is worthwhile only in exceptional circumstances when specific route characteristics—low trade density; hinterland generated cargo; inland position of port; and heavy congestion—coexist. Despite the expense of multi-port-calling, it remains the most practical solution to the thin trade problem.     

Roll Dynamics of Commercial Vehicles

An analytical model is developed here for studying the roll dynamics of commercial vehicles. Large displacements and rotations are accounted for in this nonlinear model so that it can be used for the study of roll dynamics well beyond the limits of wheel lift-off. The model is used to illustrate some of the dynamic phenomena in vehicle rollover, especially the interactive coupling between the roll and the vertical modes of motion. The influence of suspension backlash on rollover resistance is demonstrated, and the phenomenon of roll motion resonance is illustrated to suggest new means for evaluating vehicle rollover sensitivity.     

Home-based trip end models — A comparison between category analysis and regression analysis procedures

The trip end models which have been used in past transportation studies are briefly summarised. Problems associated with the use of zone-based models are outlined and reasons are given to support the development of models at the household rather than zonal level.It is suggested that recent developments which have taken place in household-based models have not been entirely logical. In particular, arguments between regression models and category analysis models have been confused with the use of aggregate (zonal) as against disaggregate (household) data — regression models being associated with the use of zonal data and category analysis models with household data. Misunderstood arguments and false notions regarding sample sizes have directed attention from the regression analysis approach.A detailed comparison of the category analysis and regression analysis methods for developing household-based trip end models is given. Both methods have been applied using data from the Monmouthshire Land Use Transportation Study. The regression results reported are from a very preliminary analysis and contain a number of anomalies, although it is thought that sufficient work has been done to provide an objective evaluation of the two methods.It is recommended that the household regression approach should be further investigated since it has advantages as a modelbuilding procedure and makes better use of sample data. A certain amount of categorisation of household types is necessary and the investigations would attempt to determine the best balance between categorisation and regression fitting. Further development will be restricted if the trend towards minimum sample sizes of about 1000 households is continued. Larger samples should be taken in certain circumstances to pursue development work.     

RMS Values of Force, Stroke and Tyre Deflection in a Half-Car Model with Preview Controlled Active Suspension

Summary Matrix expressions are developed for the direct computation of rms values for the optimal control forces, front and rear suspension strokes and dynamic tyre deflections in a half-car model on a random road of given roughness. A quadratic performance index is employed with assumed weighting factors and evaluated in the same computation.     

Engine performance and toxic gas analysis of biobutanol-blended gasoline as a vehicle fuel

A comprehensive study evaluating the performance of biobutanol-blended gasoline in passenger cars was conducted because biobutanol is considered a better biofuel than bioethanol as it has no water solubility and it has a higher caloric value, giving it a higher energy value. Several kinds of samples—suboctane gasoline, 8 volume percentage and 16 volume percentage biobutanol—blended gasoline, and a 10 volume percentage MTBE-blended market sample (as the oxygencontaining gasoline)-were tested to evaluate the engine performance in terms of the detergency of the intake valves and combustion chambers, power, emissions, and fuel efficiency. Additionally, the toxicity of the emissions from these biobutanolblended samples was tested in order to assess the viability of biobutanol as one of the competitive potential substitutes for MTBE as an oxygenator in the near future. The results show that biobutanol-blended gasoline samples had relatively better detergency, relatively higher power, and similar levels of emissions compared with those of MTBE-blended gasoline. Formaldehyde was emitted from all of the samples at almost the same levels and within the error range, whereas biobutanolblended gasoline samples emitted approximately three times the amount of acetaldehyde than did the suboctane gasoline. This study shows that biobutanol is one of the best alternative bioalcohol fuels for use in the near future.     

Towards integrated traveller information

Traveller information provision has become a key government priority in the UK following the publication of its Transport White Paper in July 1998. Developments are already underway for the integration of information systems across different public transport modes and between public transport information systems covering different regions. The Highways Agency (which is responsible for managing the strategic road network in the UK) is also advancing in its development of information databases and systems for the motorist. This paper considers the prospect of providing travellers with multimodal information with integration of driver information with public transport information. If such integration can be achieved then travellers, and in particular drivers, have the prospect of being presented with comparable information on travel options across modes. An integrated information service has a great potential to inform and influence travel choices. The paper considers the issue of travel choices and the role that information can play particularly in the context of mode choice. The political (UK) and technological climate for information provision is outlined. The paper identifies issues that will need to be addressed to identify the requirements from, and potential benefits of, integrated information, and the obstacles and challenges likely to be faced in moving towards it. Driver reactions, in particular, to the prospect of integrated information provision are fundamental to the assessment of its potential importance and value.