The traffic and behavioral effects of the I-35W Mississippi River bridge collapse

On August 1, 2007, the collapse of the I-35W bridge over the Mississippi River in Minneapolis abruptly interrupted the usual route of about 140,000 daily vehicle trips, which substantially disturbed regular traffic flow patterns on the network. It took several weeks for the network to re-equilibrate, during which period travelers continued to learn and adjust their travel decisions. A good understanding of this process is crucial for traffic management and the design of mitigation schemes. Data from loop-detectors, bus ridership statistics, and a survey are analyzed and compared, revealing the evolving traffic reactions to the bridge collapse and how individual choices could help to explain such dynamics. Findings on short-term traffic dynamics and behavioral reactions to this major network disruption have important implications for traffic management in response to future scenarios.     

Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling

This study reviews the 50-year history of travel demand forecasting models, concentrating on their accuracy and relevance for public decision-making. Only a few studies of model accuracy have been performed, but they find that the likely inaccuracy in the 20-year forecast of major road projects is ±30 % at minimum, with some estimates as high as ±40–50 % over even shorter time horizons. There is a significant tendency to over-estimate traffic and underestimate costs, particularly for toll roads. Forecasts of transit costs and ridership are even more uncertain and also significantly optimistic. The greatest knowledge gap in US travel demand modeling is the unknown accuracy of US urban road traffic forecasts. Modeling weaknesses leading to these problems (non-behavioral content, inaccuracy of inputs and key assumptions, policy insensitivity, and excessive complexity) are identified. In addition, the institutional and political environments that encourage optimism bias and low risk assessment in forecasts are also reviewed. Major institutional factors, particularly low local funding matches and competitive grants, confound scenario modeling efforts and dampen the hope that technical modeling improvements alone can improve forecasting accuracy. The fundamental problems are not technical but institutional: high non-local funding shares for large projects warp local perceptions of project benefit versus costs, leading to both input errors and political pressure to fund projects. To deal with these issues, the paper outlines two different approaches. The first, termed ‘hubris’, proposes a multi-decade effort to substantially improve model forecasting accuracy over time by monitoring performance and improving data, methods and understanding of travel, but also by deliberately modifying the institutional arrangements that lead to optimism bias. The second, termed ‘humility’, proposes to openly quantify and recognize the inherent uncertainty in travel demand forecasts and deliberately reduce their influence on project decision-making. However to be successful either approach would require monitoring and reporting accuracy, standards for modeling and forecasting, greater model transparency, educational initiatives, coordinated research, strengthened ethics and reduction of non-local funding ratios so that localities have more at stake.     

Active Roll Control of Single Unit Heavy Road Vehicles

Summary Strategies are investigated for controlling active anti-roll systems in single unit heavy road vehicles, so as to maximise roll stability. The achievable roll stability improvements that can be obtained by applying active anti-roll torques to truck suspensions are discussed. Active roll control strategies are developed, based on linear quadratic controllers. It is shown that an effective controller can be designed using the LQG approach, combined with the loop transfer recovery method to ensure adequate stability margins. A roll controller is designed for a torsionally flexible single unit vehicle, and the vehicle response to steady-state and transient cornering manoeuvres is simulated. It is concluded that roll stability can be improved by between 26% and 46% depending on the manoeuvre. Handling stability is also improved significantly.     

The EEZ and the progress of fisheries negotiations January to May 1977

This paper discusses negotiations, relative to sea fisheries, in terms of international arrangements—arrangements between the European Economic Community (EEC) and Third Countries; and those between member states of the EEC.     

Legal and institutional factors affecting mariculture in texas

Abstract

Aquaculture and its specialized cousin, mariculture, provide some potential additional food sources and economic revenues. Technological barriers to increased mariculture production are being removed, but many legal and institutional barriers remain. Examples of the current and potential regulation of mariculture in Texas by state and federal authorities are examined. The effect of various state and federal regulations on the development of mariculture is discussed from a legal and institutional viewpoint. The potential for growth of mariculture is considered questionable without regulatory reforms, particularly at the federal level.     

Scheduling short-term marine transport of bulk products

A multinational company uses a personal computer to schedule a fleet of coastal tankers and barges transporting liquid bulk products among plants, distribution centres (tank farms), and industrial customers. A simple spreadsheet interface cloaks a sophisticated optimization-based decision support system and makes this system useable via a varity of natural languages. The dispatchers, whose native language is not English, and some of whom presumably speak no English at all, communicate via the spreadsheet, and view recommended schedules displayed in Gantt charts both internationally familiar tools. Inside the spreadsheet, a highly detailed simulation can generate every feasible alternate vessel employment schedule, and an integer linear set partitioning model selects one schedule for each vessel so that all loads and deliveries are completed at minimal cost while satisfying all operational requirements. The optimized fleet employment schedule is displyed graphically with hourly time resolution over a planning horizon of 2-3 weeks. Each vessel will customarily make several voyages and many port calls to load and unload products during this time.     

Empirical approaches to combining revealed and stated preference data: Some recent developments with reference to urban mode choice

This paper replaces the nested logit ‘trick’ used in estimation of a modal choice model, when stated preference (SP) and revealed preference (RP) data are pooled, with an error component mixed logit model that can (i) relax the IID condition attached to subsets of alternatives in nested logit models, (ii) accommodate correlated observations, and (iii) reveal the relevant scale parameter for subsets of alternatives. Such a model can also incorporate state dependence between data types and preference heterogeneity on observed attributes. An example of choice among bus, train and car modes illustrates the difference in empirical evidence, especially elasticity outputs.     

Method for obtaining the wheel–rail contact location and its application to the normal problem calculation through ‘CONTACT’

This work presents a robust methodology for calculating inter-penetration areas between railway wheel and rail surfaces, the profiles of which are defined by a series of points. The method allows general three-dimensional displacements of the wheelset to be considered, and its characteristics make it especially suitable for dynamic simulations where the wheel–rail contact is assumed to be flexible. The technique is based on the discretisation of the geometries of the surfaces in contact, considering the wheel as a set of truncated cones and the rail as points. By means of this approach, it is possible to reduce the problem to the calculation of the intersections between cones and lines, the solution for which has a closed-form expression. The method has been used in conjunction with the CONTACT algorithm in order to solve the static normal contact problem when the lateral displacement of the wheelset, its yaw angle and the vertical force applied in the wheelset centroid are prescribed. The results consist of smooth functions when the dependent coordinates are represented as a function of the independent ones, lacking the jump discontinuities that are present when a rigid contact model is adopted. Example results are shown and assessed for the normal contact problem for different lateral and yaw positions of the wheelset on the track.