Transport policy evaluation in metropolitan areas: The role of modelling in decision-making

The adoption of Integrated Urban Models (IUMs) is increasingly being recognized as a tool to support transport policy appraisals in metropolitan areas. In Canada, the ILUTE (Integrated Land Use Transportation Environment) project is an IUM framework currently under development. While model development is undertaken by academics, the implementation of ILUTE is meant to occur within planning organizations thus rendering the success of model application dependent on available resources for modelling and planners’ attitudes towards the role of models. In an attempt to render the ILUTE modelling framework more “policy-sensitive”, a survey was conducted with planners and policy-makers pertaining to the three levels of government (municipal, provincial, and federal) in Canada. The survey collects information with respect to the current evaluation process of transport policy and its associated pitfalls as well as the desired state of policy appraisal and the need for more formal evaluation tools. Results show the presence of numerous challenges working against the proper development, adoption, and refining of models. The most notable of which include a general disbelief in the usefulness of models for decision-making, lack of resources for large-scale modelling exercises, and poor institutional integration among government departments. While local and national planning goals reflect the recent challenges of promoting environmental preservation, reducing social inequities, and improving the quality of life, modelling tools that can assess the impacts of proposed policies on these goals have lagged behind.     

Some insights into competition between low-cost airlines

The phenomenon of the wide world growth in low-cost airlines has resulted in a focus on their pricing strategies, on issues of cost recovery and on their impact on the traffic and market shares of legacy carriers or other low-cost carriers when they are in competition, either directly or at adjacent airports.This paper provides a brief overview of the characteristics of these low-cost carriers as well as their history and geography. It goes on to outline ways in which these carriers compete and manage demand, ranging from price competition to advertising; some of these methods directly reflect their special characteristics. Some empirical evidence is presented which indicates a correlation in fare setting behaviour between competitors and insights are offered on cost recovery.The impact of the start-up of low-cost carriers is also analysed, focusing on their impacts on other low-cost carriers. The case of Ryanair competing with easyJet on London-Venice is examined along with Southwest and Frontier on Denver-Las Vegas.     

矩形盒拉深中特征部位板厚变化的有限元分析

利用有限元方法分析了矩形盒拉深过程中的应力应变分布及特征部位的板厚变化.分析表明,板坯大部分经历了拉压变形过程,靠近凹模口的曲边法兰和侧壁部分、原始直边与曲边交界及短边外缘附近为板厚增厚区,板厚减薄主要产生在凸模肩圆角及侧壁部分;凸模转角肩部为断裂危险区,其最大减薄率超过30%,是拉深断裂的重要原因之一.     

The Prince Edward Islands pelagic ecosystem, south Indian Ocean: a review of achievements, 1976–1990

This review summarizes the main research findings of the multi-year oceanographic and biological studies conducted in the vicinity of the Prince Edward Archipelago during the period 1976 to 1990. The Prince Edward Islands represent a flow-through system on the mainstream of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Although there are no taxonomic differences between the pelagic communities of the upstream, inter-island and downstream regions, these mesoscale subsystems may operate differently. The mesoscale oceanographic and biological processes appear to be affected by the position of the Subantarctic Front (SAF) in the vicinity of the islands. Both the rich benthic community, which is supported by the local enhancement of primary production, and the strong advection of zooplankton/micronekton from the upstream region provide the food resources necessary for the survival of the huge community of land-based predators present on the islands. Collectively this is termed the ‘life-support system'. Future studies should concentrate on the meridional shifts in the position of the SAF and its influence on background productivity upstream and downstream of the Prince Edward Archipelago.     

Seasonal changes in wildlife use of motorway crossing structures and their implication for monitoring programmes

Multiple factors determine the use and effectiveness of wildlife passages and crossings installed in new roads as mitigation measures against the barrier effect. It is unknown whether factors such as seasonality determine the use of these structures. This analyses the seasonality of structure used by vertebrates. Forty-eight transverse structures crossing the A-52 motorway in north-western Spain are studied during the summer and winter of 2002–03. The use of structures by terrestrial vertebrates was monitored by tracks left in marble dust and photographic systems, and comparisons carried out by means of generalized lineal methods for count data. Structural factors mostly determined the differential use of passage types by species but seasonal changes were detected both in the intensity of use and in passage selection by some species.     

Do mergers and alliances influence European shipping and port competition?

In Europe, ports are confronted with a closer integration in the maritime and shipping industries. The co-operation agreements can take several forms such as alliances and mergers among shipping lines, conferences, involvement of shipping companies in terminal management, and extending interests in inland transport of shipping companies. In this paper we give a brief overview of these different types of agreement and we examine the consequences of this evolution of the market structures in which ports and shipping companies have to operate. More specifically, attention goes to the competitive position of the port in this new environment. It is clear that the role of the port and the port authorities has to be redefined to guarantee that it remains a fully fledged player in this fast evolving integrated market.     

Estimation des impacts atmosphériques des projets de gestion de trafic : de l’application des modèles théoriques sur des cas concrets

In addition to its harmful economical and social effects, road traffic congestion is a key contributor of emissions of CO₂ and local pollutants. Many traffic management policies could be implemented to tackle it. However, the impacts of those strategies on air quality and greenhouse effect are poorly predicted by classical assessment procedures. Indeed, current assessment tools are based on aggregated traffic data, which fail to capture the dynamic effects of traffic management policies on traffic flow. This article presents an estimation tool capable of measuring all the effects of traffic management policies. It is based on a commonly used dynamic traffic flow model (AIMSUN) combined with different emission models, in order to identify modelling features leading or not to differences in results. Different models combination have been applied and compared for two traffic regulation strategies: a HOV lane dedicated only to buses and taxis created on the leftmost lane of A1 between Charles de Gaulle airport and Paris, and a reduction of speed limits on a section of motorway A86 in the northwest of Paris. Substantial differences in predictions of different emission models are highlighted. They cannot be entirely explained by differences in emission laws. Other insights with regard to traffic representation and emission models?? inputs are also investigated to explain them.     

On the dynamics of oxygen,phosphorus and cyanobacteria in the Baltic Sea; A model study

Oxygen and phosphorus dynamics and cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea are discussed using results from the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) coupled to the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO). The high-resolution circulation model is used to simulate the time period from 1902 to 1998 using reconstructed physical forcing and climatological nutrient loads of the late 20th century. The analysis of the results covers the last 30 years of the simulation period. The results emphasize the importance of internal phosphorus and oxygen dynamics, the variability of physical conditions and the natural long-term variability of phosphorus supplies from land on the phosphorus content in the Baltic Sea. These mechanisms play an important role on the variability of available surface layer phosphorus in late winter in the Baltic Sea. The content of cyanobacteria increases with the availability of phosphorus in the surface layers of the Baltic proper and the probability for large cyanobacteria blooms in the model is rapidly increased at higher concentrations of excess dissolved inorganic phosphorus in late winter. The natural increase of phosphorus supplies from land due to increased river runoff since the early 1970s may to a large degree explain the increased phosphorus content in the Baltic proper. Another significant fraction of the increase is explained by the release of phosphorus from increased anoxic areas during the period. These results refer to the long-term variability of the phosphorus cycle. In accordance to earlier publications is the short-term (i.e. interannual) variability of the phosphorus content in the Baltic proper mainly explained by oxygen dependent sediment fluxes.