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301.
This paper presents a multiple discrete-continuous econometric structure to model the daily time-investment decisions of couples
in solo- and joint-discretionary activities incorporating intra-personal and inter-personal inter-dependencies. The empirical
model was estimated using data from the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey. The results indicate evidence of the positive impact
of vehicle availability on independent activity participation and the negative impacts of the presence of children and mandatory
time investments on the joint discretionary-activity engagement of the spouses. In addition, we also find the mandatory- and
maintenance-activity-participation characteristics of the spouse to influence the discretionary activity choices of individuals.
Finally, the analysis also indicates a strong impact of common unobserved factors on the decisions of couples. From a policy
analysis perspective, these results imply that demand-management actions directly impacting one adult could also result in
changes to the activity patterns of his/her spouse and to changes in joint activity participation characteristics.
Dr. Sivaramakrishnan Srinivasan is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil and Coastal Engineering at the University of Florida. His research interests
include travel-behavior analysis, activity-based travel-demand modeling, and the application of advanced econometric methods
for transportation problems.
Dr. Chandra R. Bhat has contributed toward the development of advanced econometric techniques for travel behavior analysis, in recognition of
which he received the 2004 Walter L. Huber Award and the 2005 James Laurie Prize from the American Society of Civil Engineers
(ASCE). 相似文献
302.
Should we abandon activity type analysis? Redefining activities by their salient attributes 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Sean T. Doherty 《Transportation》2006,33(6):517-536
This paper poses a challenge and begins a search. The challenge is to reconsider the usefulness of traditional activity types (“work”, “shopping”, etc.) in the understanding and modelling of travel behaviour. The search is for the more salient attributes of activities that may serve to better explain complex travel behaviours—such as activity scheduling and tour formation. In particular, this paper focuses on explicit measures of the spatial, temporal and interpersonal flexibility of activities, along with several traditional attributes (frequency, duration, involved persons, travel time, and location). Data from a recent in-depth week-long activity scheduling survey was used to define and compare these attributes. Results show that considerable variability in the attributes between and within traditional activity groups is evident. This casts considerable uncertainty on assumptions that statically assign levels of spatial, temporal, and interpersonal flexibility to any given activity type. A Principal Components Analysis further revealed eight new distinct clusters of activities that share like attributes. The relative role of each attribute in each component is examined, and subjective interpretations emerged (e.g., “Long and frequent”, “Space and time flexible” “Social networking”). The implications of these results for future model development and research are discussed. Future research should continue to expand the search for salient attributes and link them more directly to decision processes. 相似文献
303.
The need for acquiring the current-year traffic data is a problem for transport planners since such data may not be available
for on-going transport studies. A method is proposed in this paper to predict hourly traffic flows up to and into the near
future, using historical data collected from the Hong Kong Annual Traffic Census (ATC). Two parametric and two non-parametric
models have been employed and evaluated in this study. The results show that the non-parametric models (Non-Parametric Regression
(NPR) and Gaussian Maximum Likelihood (GML)) were more promising for predicting hourly traffic flows at the selected ATC station.
Further analysis encompassing 87 ATC stations revealed that the NPR is likely to react to unexpected changes more effectively
than the GML method, while the GML model performs better under steady traffic flows. Taking into consideration the dynamic
nature of the common traffic patterns in Hong Kong and the advantages/disadvantages of the various models, the NPR model is
recommended for predicting the hourly traffic flows in that region. 相似文献
304.
T. A. Wenzel K. J. Burnham M. V. Blundell R. A. Williams 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》2006,44(2):153-171
The article demonstrates the implementation of a model-based vehicle estimator, which can be used for combined estimation of vehicle states and parameters. The estimator is realised using the dual extended Kalman filter (DEKF) technique, which makes use of two Kalman filters running in parallel, thus 'splitting' the state and parameter estimation problems. Note that the two problems cannot be entirely separated due to their inherent interdependencies. This technique provides several advantages, such as the possibility to switch off the parameter estimator, once a sufficiently good set of estimates has been obtained. The estimator is based on a four-wheel vehicle model with four degrees of freedom, which accommodates the dominant modes only, and is designed to make use of several interchangeable tyre models. The paper demonstrates the appropriateness of the DEKF. Results to date indicate that this is an effective approach, which is considered to be of potential benefit to the automotive industry. 相似文献
305.
Michaë l J. M. M. Steenbergen 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》2006,44(10):763-787
A classification of wheel-rail contact is given. Difference is made between modelling of a running wheel with continuous single-point-contact, as is common practice in wheel-rail contact analysis, and a wheel with transient double- or multi-point-contact, which may occur for rail irregularities with curvatures larger than that of the wheel circumference. It is shown that application of the first model for these irregularities will strongly underestimate the contact forces as it does not describe occurring mechanisms correctly. Further, it is shown that in principle it is not possible to describe the second type of contact fully correct with a lumped wheel model. Both wheel models are formulated mathematically for some basic contact cases. Afterwards, results are applied to a linear track model. Analytical closed-form solutions are found in the frequency domain for arbitrary type of contact and numerically transformed to the time domain. Finally, the necessity is shown to avoid situations where transient multiple-point-contact may occur (like rail joints) in practice. 相似文献
306.
Mohammad Biglarbegian Jean W. Zu 《Vehicle System Dynamics: International Journal of Vehicle Mechanics and Mobility》2006,44(11):871-885
This article presents a model for solving solid-fluid interactions in vehicles carrying liquids. A tractor-semitrailer model is developed by incorporating suspension systems and tire dynamics. Owing to the solid-fluid interaction, equations of motion for the vehicle system are coupled. To simplify the complicated solution procedure, the coupled equations are solved separately using two different codes. Each code is analyzed separately; but as the parameters of the two codes depend on each other, the codes must be connected at the end of each time step. To determine the dynamic behavior of the system, different braking moments are applied. As the braking moments increase, braking time decreases. However, it turns out that increasing the braking moment to more than a certain level produces no significant results. It is also shown that vehicles carrying fluids need a greater amount of braking moments in comparison to vehicles carrying solids during braking. In addition, as the level of the fluid inside the tanker increases, from one-third to two-third of the tanker's volume, the sloshing forces applied to the tanker's walls increase. It was also concluded that the strategy used in this article to solve for the solid-fluid interaction by incorporating vehicle dynamic effects represents an effective method for determining the dynamic behavior of vehicles carrying fluids in other critical maneuvers. 相似文献
307.
In this work, laboratory experiment was conducted in order to evaluate the effect of feedback on decision-making under uncertainty,
with and without provided information about travel times. We discuss the prediction of travelers’ response to uncertainty
in two route–choice situations. In the first situation travelers are faced with a route–choice problem in which travel times
are uncertain but some external information about routes’ travel times is provided. The second situation takes place in a
more uncertain environment in which external information about travel times is not provided, and the travelers’ only source
of information is their own experience. Experimental results are in conflict with the paradigm about traveler information
systems: As a consequence of information, the propensity of travelers to minimize expected travel time is not necessarily
increased. Providing travelers with static information about expected travel times reveals an increase in the heterogeneity
of travelers’ choices and reduces the maximization rate. 相似文献
308.
Shih-Che Lo Randolph W. Hall 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2006,40(10):903-917
In this paper we investigate the effect of the Los Angeles transit strike on highway congestion through analysis of highway sensor data, using both a before-and-after comparison, and a control group comparison. We found that average 5:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. traffic speeds declined by as much as 20% during the strike, and the average length of the rush period increased by as much as 200%, even though increases in traffic were small, despite the fact that transit riders constitute a small fraction of the traveling population. Speeds declined the most at locations upstream from the places where queues normally end. We believe that highways are especially susceptible to congestion during strikes because travelers have little opportunity to adjust and equilibrate their travel patterns, as is possible during ordinary periods of traffic growth. 相似文献
309.
310.