New routes on old railways: increasing rail’s mode share within the constraints of the existing railway network

This paper describes an integrated methodology for identifying potential ‘quick wins’ for mode shift from road to passenger rail transport. Firstly, a procedure for analysing rail’s relative competitiveness in the market for passenger transport between large urban areas is developed and then applied to a UK case study. The purpose of such analysis is to allow the identification of flows where rail is currently relatively uncompetitive (in terms of journey time in particular) and to assess the reasons for this poor performance, so that the issues which suppress rail use may be addressed. In parallel, a framework, methodology and tool for the assessment of existing and potential capacity (trains, seats, TEUs, etc.) is developed for both passenger and freight traffic, to identify and address network constraints. An illustrative example of the use of these demand and capacity assessment tools is then presented, with the tools used to identify and evaluate flows where rail demand is suppressed by poor service quality and where spare capacity exists which would allow the passenger rail service to be improved without requiring significant investments in infrastructure. The effects of such improvements on demand are predicted, and the cost implications of operating such additional services are discussed. The analysis suggests that there may be significant potential for increasing rail’s mode share by providing additional inter-urban services where rail currently offers an inferior service.     

智慧治理理念下公交都市创建路径探究——以湛江市为例

"公交都市"是为了缓解小汽车的快速增长和交通拥堵问题所采取的城市交通战略.本文以湛江市为例,分析得出该市公交发展还存在着基础服务水平低、城市建设与公交发展不协调、公交优先战略未真正落实、智慧公交驱动力不足等问题,阻碍着城市与交通体系建设的有序发展.本文将智慧治理理念与公交都市创建在价值层面与技术层面进行结合,并借鉴新加坡与山东青岛的公交都市发展经验,从理念层面、技术层面与智慧管理层面提出适合湛江市公交都市创建的路径,推动城市公交的人性化、智慧化发展.     

国内外公交社区规划研究及经验借鉴

本文通过研究国内外相关文献,对公交社区涵义进行解读和界定,依据国内外公交社区的分类和形式,研究国内外公交社区的发展状况,尤其一些经典的优秀案例,最后总结公交社区规划的三大要素。     

Willingness to accept commuting time within the household: stated preference evidence

In this study, stated preference data is used to derive estimated values of commuting time (VOCT). Both spouses in two-earner households are individually making trade-offs between commuting time and wage; both with regard to their own commuting time and wage only, as well as when both their own commuting time and wage and their spouse’s commuting time and wage are simultaneously changed. Thus, we are able to compare how male spouses and female spouses value each other’s commuting time. When only ones own commuting time and wage are attributes, the empirical results show that the estimated VOCT is plausible with a tendency towards high values compared to other studies, and that VOCT does not differ significantly between men and women. When decisions affecting commuting time and wage of both spouses are analyzed, both spouses value the commuting time of the wife highest. Further analysis show that this result is driven by households where the man has the highest income. If VOCT were to be gender specific in policy implications, the value might be higher for women than for men in two-earner households.     

Wanting to travel,more or less: Exploring the determinants of the deficit and surfeit of personal travel

This study investigates the determinants of peoples desire to increase or decrease the amount of travel they do. We use data from 1,357 working commuters, residents of three different neighborhoods in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. The dependent variables are indicators of Relative Desired Mobility for ten categories of travel (short- and long-distance overall and by several mode- and purpose-specific categories). These variables are measured on a five-point ordinal scale ranging from much less to much more, through which the respondents indicated the amount of travel they want to do (in the category in question) compared to what they are doing now. Censored ordered probit models were developed for these variables, with explanatory variables including general travel attitudes, specific liking for travel in each of the same separate categories, objective and subjective measures of the amount currently traveled in each category, and personality, lifestyle, and socio-demographic characteristics. The results support the hypotheses that the liking for travel has a strong positive impact, and subjective qualitative assessments of mobility have a strong negative impact, on the desire to increase ones travel. Finally, a number of general types of effects on Relative Desired Mobility were identified, among them complementarity and substitution effects. The results of this study can provide policy makers and researchers with new and valuable insight into key principles that affect individual travel demand.     

Network performance improvement under stochastic events with long-term effects

This paper is devoted to the problem of improving network performance to withstand incidents such as earthquakes, which have long-term adverse-effect upon the networks. A measure of link importance is presented based on consumers surplus. This measure is then used to define and solve a network improvement problem. Computational complexities are reduced by introducing an approximate measure of link importance which performs almost as good, and hence may be used for solving large scale problems. Several example networks are used to clarify the discussion numerically.     

Modelling behavioural rules for daily activity scheduling using fuzzy logic

The paper focuses on how trip time variability affects re-scheduling of daily activities. A delay in a trip or an early arrival can contribute to changes in the timing, location of the next activity, and to the deletion/addition of some activities. We propose the idea of using fuzzy logic rules to explain the effect of variability in travel time on the benefits perceived by an individual with the changes, and to model different actions that the individuals take in order to re-establish the steadiness of the existing timetable. The fuzzy model is used to handle the imprecision of the data which is unstructured text. The results show that large deviations in trip duration are more likely to induce significant changes in the timetable whereas small deviations are either ignored or translated into modified timing of the next activity. In choosing an action, greater importance is assigned to the flexibility of the following activity, to the magnitude of the trip time saving/delay, and to the duration of the next activity. Time savings are not favoured unless they can be readily transferred into additional activity time allocated to the next activity or to a new activity. The fuzzy rules based system is capable of predicting satisfactorily the strategy of coping with uncertainty in travel times and the satisfaction sensed with the change.     

Effect of width-to-thickness ratio and thickness profile changing on the critical instable shape during cold strip rolling

Based on the volume constancy with equal flow-per-second and elastic sheet stability theory, a coupling relationship among lateral thickness difference, width-to-thickness ratio of cold rolling strip steel under ideal and actual working conditions, and shape is concluded according to the comprehensive influence principle of various factors on the critical instable shape analyzed in-depth. Firstly, the influence model under actual working condition is developed by referring to the basic relationship between lateral thickness difference and shape under ideal condition. The test results prove that for thin strips with thickness below 0.3 mm, their lateral thickness differences have significant effect on the shape. After then, the combined influence of lateral thickness difference and width-to-thickness ratio on the critical instable shape is concluded according to the elastic sheet stability model, with the synthetic effect of these three factors analyzed. Test data indicate that for cold rolling strip steel with width-to-thickness ratio above 3 000, the critical instability stress difference decreases significantly. Actual measurements are conducted on the lateral thickness differences of two rolls of typical strip manufactured by a sixhigh cold mill, with the influence law of lateral thickness variation and width-to-thickness ratio comprehensively investigated. It is demonstrated that during the production of ultrathin strip steel with different width-to-thickness ratios, the loading roll shapes should be fine adjusted according to the lateral thickness difference of input strips.Therefore, the variation of lateral thickness difference of output strips can meet the requirement of shape stability,so as to obtain fine shape.     

Regression analysis of initial stress field around faults based on fault throw by displacement discontinuity method

The back analysis of initial stress is usually based on measured stress values, but the measuring of initial stress demands substantial investment. Therefore, amounts of underground engineering have no measured initial stress data, such as tunneling engineering. Focusing on this problem, a new back analysis method which does not need measured initial stress data is developed. The fault is assumed to be caused by initial load, the displacement discontinuity method (DDM) which considered non-linear fault is adopted to establish a numerical model of the engineering site, and the multivariable regression analysis of the initial stress field around the faults is carried out based on the fault throw. The result shows that the initial stress field around the faults is disturbed significantly, stress concentration appears in the tip zone, the regressive fault throw matches the measured values well, and the regressive initial stress field is reliable.     

PM10 concentrations and the size distribution of Cu and Fe-containing particles in Istanbul’s subway system

In this study, PM₁₀ concentrations, as well as the size distributions of Fe-containing and Cu-containing particles are measured in six subway stations in Istanbul. The average daily PM₁₀ concentrations are found to vary considerably. They were also found to be significantly higher than the levels found at urban air quality stations. Further, the relative abundance of Fe-containing particles among the particles of size >2.1 μm collected in the metro stations is 3.5-8 times higher than in the in the Istanbul atmosphere.