Towards port infrastructure adaptation: a global port climate risk analysis

In this paper, a new concept of “port climate risk exposure function along the sea–land boundary axis” is introduced as a critical component towards port adaptation. This concept derived from a global survey which was conducted over 29 countries to assess perceived climate risks to port infrastructure from relevant experts. The methodology used 48 climate scenarios developed based on existing data. Ultimately, this paper serves as a global climate risk indicator to guide further adaptive initiatives in ports.     

An agent‐based simulation model to assess the impacts of introducing a shared‐taxi system: an application to Lisbon (Portugal)

This paper presents a new concept of urban shared‐taxi services. The proposed system has a new organisational design and pricing scheme that aims to use the capacity in traditional taxi services in a more efficient way. In this system, a taxi acting in ‘sharing’ mode offers lower prices to its clients, in exchange for them to accept sharing the vehicle with other persons who have compatible trips (time and space). The paper proposes and tests an agent‐based simulation model in which a set of rules for space and time matching between a request of a client and the candidate shared taxis is identified. It considers that the client is only willing to accept a maximum deviation from his or her direct route and establishes an objective function for selecting the best candidate taxi. The function considers the minimum travel time combination of pickup and drop‐off of all the pool of clients sharing each taxi while allowing to establish a policy of bonuses to competing taxis with certain number of occupants. An experiment for the city of Lisbon is presented with the objectives of testing the proposed simulation conceptual model and showing the potential of sharing taxis for improving mobility management in urban areas. Results show that the proposed system may lead to significant fare and travel time savings to passengers, while not jeopardising that much the taxi revenues. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporating equity into the transit frequency-setting problem

This paper and the proposed formulation contribute to an apparent gap in transit research design by integrating equity considerations into the transit frequency-setting problem. The proposed approach provides a means to design transit service such that equitable access to basic amenities (e.g., employment, supermarkets, medical services) is provided for low-income populations or disadvantaged populations. The overarching purpose is to improve access via transit to basic amenities to: (1) reduce the disproportionate burden faced by transit dependent populations; and (2) create a more feasible transportation option for low-income households as an opportunity to increase financial security by reducing dependence on personal autos. The formulation is applied to data from a mid-sized US metropolitan area. The example application illustrates the formulation successfully increases access to employment opportunities for residents in areas with high percentages of low-income persons, as well as demonstrates the importance of considering uncertainty in the locations of populations and employment.     

A multiple criteria approach for the evaluation of the rail transit networks in Istanbul

The deficiencies in the Istanbul transportation system have led the local authorities to plan several alternative transportation projects. In this paper three alternative rail transit network proposals are evaluated by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple criteria decision support system. The AHP facilitates decision-making by organizing perceptions, experiences, knowledge and judgments, the forces that influence the decision, into a hierarchical framework with a goal, scenarios, criteria and alternatives of choice. Based on this analysis, the decision makers have developed a new alternative as a combination of the most closely competing two alternative rail transit networks. This combination rail transit network is currently under construction.     

Modeling Car Ownership in Turkey Using Fuzzy Regression

Abstract

This article develops a model which can be used to determine car ownership in Turkey. Because of the lack of disaggregated data, the model is based on aggregated data. As owning a car is mainly affected by economic, social and demographic factors, the car ownership model has a multi-variable form. In order to explain the effects of these factors on car ownership in Turkey, a fuzzy multiple-regression model is used. The major reason for applying fuzzy regression is to overcome the intercorrelation problem associated with the independent variables. In this study, the urbanization rate, average family size, gross national product per capita, average car cost, gasoline price and total length of roads are selected as independent variables. The results show that, by applying a multi-variable approach to possibilistic regression, the model provides not only a crisp output but also an output range for car ownership in Turkey between 1970 and 2000.     

URANS prediction of roll damping for a ship hull section at shallow draft

It is analytically difficult to calculate roll damping of ships due to the effects of viscosity. Therefore, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has become a powerful tool in predicting roll damping recently. The unsteady flow around a forced rolling hull section with bilge keels can be calculated using a commercial URANS code which includes the viscous effects. In this study, two-dimensional (2D) roll damping calculations for a S60 midsection with bilge keels including free surface effects are performed for shallow draft case. The first objective of the study is to show whether the URANS code can be used to predict roll damping coefficient correctly. The second one is to show why Ikeda’s estimation method is insufficient at shallow draft case. Sinusoidal forced roll motion calculation method of roll damping moment with the help of a sliding interface and a fixed roll axis is successfully applied to predict roll damping coefficient. The calculations are carried out for different roll motion periods and amplitudes to validate the accuracy of the URANS code for different cases. Numerical results are compared with experiments, which were carried out at the towing tank facility of Osaka Prefecture University (OPU), and Ikeda’s estimation method. The results show that the URANS code is capable of predicting roll damping coefficients in a good agreement with experimental results and can be used further to develop a better model for prediction of roll damping.     

VirMaLab — atelier virtuel de maintenance: un outil d’aide à la décision pour l’optimisation des politiques de maintenance

This article deals with a generic approach called VirMaLab (virtual maintenance laboratory) for reliabilitybased maintenance modeling for complex systems (with multi-components and multi-states). Based on the probabilistic graphical models formalism (also known as Bayesian networks), this stochastic approach takes into account both the degradation process of the considered system (an original semi-Markovian model is proposed) and maintenance strategies (from diagnosis factors to all kinds of maintenance actions). For complete decision support tools, cost parameters should also be considered (maintenance actions, unavailability of the system, running, etc.). In this article, two applications of this approach to rail maintenance are introduced. The first one focuses on the optimization of the compromise refurbishment/repairing of central part of the RER A line. The second one focuses on the comparison and evaluation of various maintenance strategies in the modernization of the command control systems of Paris metro lines.