Oil spill risk analysis of routeing heavy ship traffic in Norwegian waters

Norwegian authorities have for a long time been concerned about the risk of oil spills outside the Norwegian coast. One of the key measures adopted has been to reduce the risk of ship accidents by imposing sailing routes for heavy ship traffic (over 5,000 gross tonnages) with high environmental risk potential farther away from part of the coast. This article is based upon two reports which conducted risk assessments of imposing such sailing routes outside the entire Norwegian coast. These routes were proposed by an expert group consisting of relevant stakeholders. Data of traffic pattern and number of sailing were collected for the year 2008 using the universal Automatic Identification System (AIS). The proposed route was compared with 2008 traffic pattern in regard to the accident frequencies and the expected oil spills per year. An accident and oil spilling simulation program called MARCS was used to simulate these results. After conducting a traffic forecast for the year 2025, the simulation was again run and the results compared with the year 2008. In total, the proposed route is expected to reduce oil spills by 590 t per year in 2008 and by 3670?t in 2025. The main reason for this substantial reduction is that the number of groundings is reduced because of the distance from the shore being increased. The reduction was particularly strong for tankers.     

From Titanic to Costa Concordia—a century of lessons not learned

The recent foundering of the Costa Concordia in January 2012 demonstrated that accidents can occur even with ships that are considered masterpieces of modern technology and despite more than 100?years of regulatory and technological progress in maritime safety. The purpose of this paper is, however, not to speculate about the concrete causes of the Costa Concordia accident, but rather to consider some human and organizational factors that were present in the Costa Concordia accident as well as in the foundering of the Titanic a century ago, and which can be found in many other maritime accidents over the years. The paper argues that these factors do not work in isolation but in combination and often together with other underlying factors. The paper critically reviews the focus of maritime accident investigations and points out that these factors do not receive sufficient attention. It is argued that the widespread confidence in the efficacy of new or improved technical regulations, that characterizes the recommendations from most maritime accident investigations, has led to a lack of awareness of complex interactions of factors and components in socio-technical systems. If maritime safety is to be sustainably improved, a systemic focus must be adopted in future accident investigations.     

The applicability of hydrofoils as a ship control device

Centrifugal forces are commonly created when ships turn, which may cause a ship to capsize in a critical situation. A mathematical model has been developed to optimize the stability coefficients for ship, with the aim to prevent capsizing and to increase ship maneuverability in high-speed water craft. This model can be used to develop algorithms for control system improvement. The mathematical model presented in this paper optimized the use of multipurpose hydrofoils to reduce heeling and the trimming moment, maintaining an upright ship’s position and lessening the resistance via transverse force. Conventionally, the trimming and heeling of a ship are controlled using ballast water; however, under variable sea conditions it is sometimes difficult to control a ship’s motion using ballast water. In this case, a hydrofoil would be more stable and maneuverable than a ballast tank controlled vessel. A movable hydrofoil could theoretically be adapted from moveable aerofoil technology. This study proves the merit of further investigation into this possibility.     

Dynamic adaptive finite element analysis of acoustic wave propagation due to underwater explosion for fluid-structure interaction problems

In this paper, an investigation into the propagation of far field explosion waves in water and their effects on nearby structures are carried out. For the far field structure, the motion of the fluid surrounding the structure may be assumed small, allowing linearization of the governing fluid equations. A complete analysis of the problem must involve simultaneous solution of the dynamic response of the structure and the propagation of explosion wave in the surrounding fluid. In this study, a dynamic adaptive finite element procedure is proposed. Its application to the solution of a 2D fluid-structure interaction is investigated in the time domain. The research includes: a) calculation of the far-field scatter wave due to underwater explosion including solution of the time-depended acoustic wave equation, b) fluid-structure interaction analysis using coupled Euler-Lagrangian approach, and c) adaptive finite element procedures employing error estimates, and re-meshing. The temporal mesh adaptation is achieved by local regeneration of the grid using a time-dependent error indicator based on curvature of pressure function. As a result, the overall response is better predicted by a moving mesh than an equivalent uniform mesh. In addition, the cost of computation for large problems is reduced while the accuracy is improved.     

Modelling forward freight rate dynamics—empirical evidence from time charter rates

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of forward freight rate dynamics. We specify our model in a Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework. This model was originally developed for interest rate markets and, in subsequent work, the model has been applied to various commodity markets. We analyse ten years of weekly time charter (TC) rates for a Panamax 65,000?dwt bulk carrier. Our data set consists of 6-, 12- and 36-month TC rates. We use this data to construct, each day, a forward rate function using a smoothing algorithm. We use the smooth data to investigate the factors governing the dynamics of the forward freight rate curve. We find a strange volatility structure in the data. Out results show that the volatility of the forward curve is bumped, with volatility reaching a peak for freight rates with roughly one year to maturity. Also, correlations between different parts of the term structure are in general low and even negative.     

A cost performance analysis of transport infrastructure construction in Slovenia

Due to limited data availability only a few studies have been able to provide statistically significant evidence on cost overruns in transport infrastructure investments and their systematic nature, and fewer still for road infrastructure investments. The body of available evidence refers to the most economically developed countries, while very little evidence was found regarding other countries. In this article the authors focus on cost performance of road infrastructure constructed through the National Motorway Construction Programme in Slovenia. Methodologically the study departs from other studies in this field by building on detailed expenditure data and not aggregate reports from the relevant institution. This enabled the analysis of four individual project cost categories (construction cost, land acquisition damages and others) and comparably more accurate results. A representative sample of randomly selected completed projects in the period 1995–2007 revealed that the cost overruns (19%; SD = 46.10%) in the entire period studied do not appear to be higher than in other comparable studies. At the same time the study results showed that cost overruns were unstable, i.e. much higher for older projects.     

Acoustic excitation of hull surfaces by propeller sources

We present preliminary results from our new ship motion model that includes both strong and weak three-dimensional interactions between environmental surface waves and ship bodies in arbitrary water depth. The linear solutions of steady flow using the new model agree well with those obtained using the Green function methods. When the Froude number Fn is large, the fully nonlinear solutions of our model are significantly different from linear solutions, even in calm water. The interactions between the ship and incident gravity waves are completely different from those in linear solutions even with small Fn and moderate-amplitude surface waves (e.g., Fn = 0.25 and a significant wave height of about 1–3m).     

New generic mathematical model to predict hydrodynamic interaction effects for overtaking maneuvers in simulators

To improve the formulation of ship–ship interaction forces and moments in a mathematical model of a ship maneuvring simulator, we developed a new generic mathematical model for the overtaking maneuver. This process involves using the numerical results, which provide a potentially complete set of data from which (within the constraints of the numerical modelling) everything necessary can be acquired. We found that the new generic mathematical model is as accurate as the numerical model. It is also more accessible to a navigator, master, or pilot, who could use it on a palmtop computer by keying in a few numberical estimates of the size, position, and speed of the neighboring ship and receive almost instant aneous results, giving time for a refined strategy to be validated if necessary. These results can also readily be used by simulation program developers to simulate the worst possible scenarios.     

Hydrodynamic optimization of ship hull forms in shallow water

A computational method for improving hull form in shallow water with respect to wave resistance is presented. The method involves coupling ideas from two distinct research fields: numerical ship hydrodynamics and nonlinear programming techniques. The wave resistance is estimated by means of Morinos panel method, which is extended to free surface flow and considers the influence of finite depth on the wave resistance of ships. This is linked to the optimization procedure of the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) technique, and an optimum hull form can be obtained through a series of iterations giving some design constraints. Sinkage is an important factor in shallow water, and this method considers sinkage as a hydrodynamic design constraint. The optimization procedure developed is demonstrated by selecting a Wigley (C _B = 0.444) hull and the Series 60 (C _B = 0.60) hull, and new hull forms are obtained at Froude number 0.316. The Froude number specified corresponds to a lower than critical speed since most of the ships operating in shallow water move below their critical speed. The numerical results of the optimization procedure indicate that the optimized hull forms yields a reduction in wave resistance.     

Numerical modeling of breaking waves generated by a ship’s hull

A new model for the simulation of spilling breaking waves in naval flows is presented. The hydrostatic pressure is used in order to mimic the weight of the breaker on the underlying flow, as in the model of Cointe and Tulin, whereas the algorithm for detecting the breaking inception and the definition of its geometry are completely new and are suitable for the simulation of three–dimensional flows around ships hulls. The model has been implemented in a finite-volume code developed for naval flows, and its performances have been validated against experimental data for a submerged profile, an S60 hull in drift motion, and the US Combatant DTMB 5415 model on a straight course.