The cost of second best pricing and the value of risk premium

Private provision of public infrastructure (PPP) is meant to give incentives to increased efficiency in construction as well in operation and maintenance of the infrastructure e.g. within the transport sector. Efficiency is not only (private) economic efficiency, but also social efficiency e.g. social marginal cost pricing of use of the infrastructure.Is it possible to design contracts concerning payment mechanisms and financial instruments for transport infrastructure that will stimulate social efficiency and optimal allocation of risks between parties? The paper discusses whether different targets can be met and whether compromises may lead to acceptable second best solutions.PPP implies an opportunity to let the user-payment give desired incentives in the form of Social Marginal Cost Pricing (SMCP). A PPP project is a set of contracts and agreements between several parties, including the Government, the private contractor, subcontractors, banks and infrastructure users. These contracts should be designed to give the right incentives to the parties to achieve optimal risk allocation and utilising of resources.Long contract-periods are a common feature of PPPs. The paper examines the way that financial solutions should be designed to achieve the goals for the PPP-projects concerning economic and social efficiency. The expected size and variation of the income stream from the project will influence the loan conditions offered by banks concerning interest rates, guarantees and repayment and also the ability to attract investors. The balance between equity and loans again influences the conditions of the loans. An additional problem is asymmetric information between parties. The private contractor usually knows more about the task than the Government (hidden knowledge), and the Government cannot have full knowledge of the efforts of the contractor (hidden actions).     

Gulf of Gdansk spring bloom physical, bio-optical, biological modelling and contact data assimilation

In this study we propose a model of phytoplankton population dynamics in the marine ecosystem, which includes physical, biological and bio-optical parts. As an example we simulate the abnormal 1993 Gulf of Gdansk spring bloom, when extremely high chlorophyll concentrations were observed. For the one-dimensional model we use two different methods of contact chlorophyll observation assimilation to fit a model of “in situ” data. The results are compared with two-dimensional ecosystem modelling based on a barotropic model of wind-driven circulation without assimilation.     

Inter-firm relationships and shipping services: the case of car carriers and automobile importers to the United States

This paper is an initial exploration of inter-industry relationships and linkages in the context of automobile imports to the United States. It is our contention that the nature and structure of the engagement between automobile importers and shipping lines is central to understanding the evolution of the car carrier trade. Building on the literature on transactions costs, and supply and value chains, we show that the regimes currently governing car carriage services range from markets to vertical integration via network forms of engagement. We illustrate this through a detailed discussion of Japanese inter-firm networks and an examination of automobile import data to the US from 1980 to 2000. The findings raise important questions for future research on the impact of inter-industry relationships in various strategic decisions of steamship lines, shippers and port authorities including port entry, port choice and routeing, technological and investment choices, and trajectories of supply chain development.     

Numerical simulations of seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea thermohaline circulation

The Black Sea general circulation is simulated by a primitive equation model with active free surface. The forcing is seasonally variable and is based on available climatic data. The model reproduces the main features of the Black Sea circulation, including the river discharge effects on the mean sea level and the Bosphorus outflow. Model results show that the simulated sea surface elevation increases in spring over the whole sea, reaching a maximum in the Danube delta area. In the same region, a minimum is observed in winter. The amplitude of the seasonal oscillations (about 8–12 cm over the whole basin) is of the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal variations (about 15–18 cm between the coastal areas and the basin interior). This strong signal formed mostly by river discharges, along with the seasonal variability in the other forcing functions and the local dynamics creates a well-pronounced interannual variability. The performance of the model in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability is critically analyzed, with a special attention on the cold intermediate water formation and the circulation in the upper 150 m. The simulations demonstrate that the source of intermediate waters is on the shelf, and that the water mass in the core of cold intermediate layer changes with time as a response to the periodic forcing at sea surface. This type of variability is characterized by pronounced interannual changes, proving that important differences could exist between water mass structure in different years, even when using identical atmospheric forcings each year.     

What determines university student’s willingness to pay for bikeways?

Transportation - Inadequate infrastructure is recognized as an important barrier to cycling; therefore, improvements in the provision of bicycle facilities, such as bikeways, are frequently...     

Influencing factors and heterogeneity in ridership of traditional and app-based taxi systems

The growth of app-based taxi services has disrupted the urban taxi market. It has seen significant demand shift between the traditional and emerging app-based taxi services. This study explores the influencing factors for determining the ridership distribution of taxi services. Considering the spatial, temporal, and modal heterogeneity, we propose a mixture modeling structure of spatial lag and simultaneous equation model. A case study is designed with 6-month trip records of two traditional taxi services and one app-based taxi service in New York City. The case study provides insights on not only the influencing factors for taxi daily ridership but also the appropriate settings for model estimation. In specific, the hypothesis testing demonstrates a method for determining the spatial weight matrix, estimation strategies for heterogeneous spatial and temporal units, and the minimum sample size required for reliable parameter estimates. Moreover, the study identifies that daily ridership is mainly influenced by number of employees, vehicle ownership, density of developed area, density of transit stations, density of parking space, bike-rack density, day of the week, and gasoline price. The empirical analyses are expected to be useful not only for researchers while developing and estimating models of taxi ridership but also for policy makers while understanding interactions between the traditional and emerging app-based taxi services.

     

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研究印度城市道路上设置公交专用道后小汽车出行向公交转移的可能性. 借助新的混合交通流仿真模型测定设置公交专用道后公交服务水平改善状况. 基于陈述偏好入户调查的抽样数据,本文还引入其他影响出行方式转移的变量,标定出行方式选择二元Logit模型. 根据实际和预测数据,确定了公交服务水平改善条件下小汽车出行向公交转移的一系列主要影响因素. 基于两种方式出行时间差,绘制出行方式转换概率曲线,并为多变量宽值域条件下交通方式转移的预测提供一种易于操作的方法.     

Bees-algorithm-based optimization of component size and control strategy parameters for parallel hybrid electric vehicles

This paper presents the optimization of key component sizes and control strategy for parallel hybrid electric vehicles (parallel HEVs) using the bees algorithm (BA). The BA is an intelligent optimization tool that mimics the food foraging behavior of honey bees. Parallel HEV configuration and electric assist control strategy were used to conduct the research. The values of the key component size and the control strategy parameters were adjusted according to the BA to minimize the weighted sum of fuel consumption (FC) and emissions, while the vehicle performance satisfies the PNGV constraints. In this research, the software ADVISOR was used as the simulation tool, and the driving cycles FTP, ECE-EUDC and UDDS were employed to evaluate FC, emission and dynamic performance. The results demonstrate that the BA is a powerful tool in parallel HEV optimization to determine the optimal parameters of component sizes and control strategy, resulting in the improvement of FC and emissions without sacrificing vehicle performance. In addition, the BA is able to define a global solution with a high rate of convergence.     

海洋浮体非线性水弹性力学分析--结构非线性的初步考虑

前文^[1-3]分别介绍了二阶非线性水弹性分析中流体非线性的理论与部分典型算例结果。本文则在流体线性假定的前提下，介绍结构非线性的考虑方法。以大变形浮动平板在多向规则波中的运动与变形响应为例，介绍了板垂向位移与流体相互耦合的频域分析方法。讨论了板内薄膜力对结构变形与受力的影响。数值算例表明，薄膜力对变形、弯矩和应力都有一定程度的非线性贡献，在某些情况下是不可忽略的。     

Counting people in the crowd using social media images for crowd management in city events

Transportation - City events are getting popular and are attracting a large number of people. This increase needs for methods and tools to provide stakeholders with crowd size information for crowd...