A probabilistic framework for weather-based rerouting and delay estimations within an Airspace Planning model

In this paper, we develop a novel severe weather-modeling paradigm to be applied within the context of a large-scale Airspace Planning and collaborative decision-making model in order to reroute flights with respect to a specified probability threshold of encountering severe weather, subject to collision safety, airline equity, and sector workload considerations. This approach serves as an alternative to the current practice adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) of adjusting flight routes in accordance with the guidelines specified in the National Playbook. Our innovative contributions in this paper include (a) the concept of “Probability-Nets” and the development of discretized representations of various weather phenomena that affect aviation operations; (b) the integration of readily accessible severe weather probabilities from existing weather forecast data provided by the National Weather Service; (c) the generation of flight plans that circumvent severe weather phenomena with specified probability threshold levels, and (d) a probabilistic delay assessment methodology for evaluating planned flight routes that might encounter potentially disruptive weather along its trajectory. Additionally, we conduct an economic benefit analysis using a k-means clustering mechanism in concert with our delay assessment methodology in order to evaluate delay costs and system disruptions associated with variations in probability-net refinement-based information. Computational results and insights are presented based on flight test cases derived from the Enhanced Traffic Management System data provided by the FAA and using weather scenarios derived from the Model Output Statistics forecast data provided by the National Weather Service.     

Inter-firm relationships and shipping services: the case of car carriers and automobile importers to the United States

This paper is an initial exploration of inter-industry relationships and linkages in the context of automobile imports to the United States. It is our contention that the nature and structure of the engagement between automobile importers and shipping lines is central to understanding the evolution of the car carrier trade. Building on the literature on transactions costs, and supply and value chains, we show that the regimes currently governing car carriage services range from markets to vertical integration via network forms of engagement. We illustrate this through a detailed discussion of Japanese inter-firm networks and an examination of automobile import data to the US from 1980 to 2000. The findings raise important questions for future research on the impact of inter-industry relationships in various strategic decisions of steamship lines, shippers and port authorities including port entry, port choice and routeing, technological and investment choices, and trajectories of supply chain development.     

What determines university student’s willingness to pay for bikeways?

Transportation - Inadequate infrastructure is recognized as an important barrier to cycling; therefore, improvements in the provision of bicycle facilities, such as bikeways, are frequently...     

海洋浮体非线性水弹性力学分析--结构非线性的初步考虑

前文^[1-3]分别介绍了二阶非线性水弹性分析中流体非线性的理论与部分典型算例结果。本文则在流体线性假定的前提下，介绍结构非线性的考虑方法。以大变形浮动平板在多向规则波中的运动与变形响应为例，介绍了板垂向位移与流体相互耦合的频域分析方法。讨论了板内薄膜力对结构变形与受力的影响。数值算例表明，薄膜力对变形、弯矩和应力都有一定程度的非线性贡献，在某些情况下是不可忽略的。     

RANS simulation of a container ship using a single-phase level-set method with overset grids and the prognosis for extension to a self-propulsion simulator

Steady flow simulations for the Korean Research Institute for Ships and Ocean Engineering (KRISO) container ship (KCS) were performed for towing and self-propulsion. The main focus in the present article is on the evaluation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) as a tool for hull form design along with application of state-of-the-art technology in the flow simulations. Two Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation solvers were employed, namely CFDShip-Iowa version 4 and Flowpack version 2004e, for the towing and self-propulsion cases, respectively. The new features of CFDShip-Iowa version 4 include a single-phase level-set method to model the free surface and an overset gridding capability to increase resolution in the flow and wave fields. The new features of Flowpack version 2004e are related to a self-propulsion scheme in which the RANS solver is coupled with a propeller performance program based on the infinitely bladed propeller theory. The present work is based on a close interaction between IIHR-Hydroscience and Engineering of the University of Iowa and Osaka Prefecture University. In the following article, overviews are given of the present numerical methods and results are presented and discussed for the KCS in towing and self-propulsion modes, including comparison with available experimental fluid dynamics (EFD) data. Additional evaluation is provided through discussion of the recent CFD Workshop Tokyo 2005, where both methods appeared to yield very promising results.     

An Overview of Spatial Management and Marine Protected Areas in the East China Sea

Marine ecosystems of the East China Sea are rich in biodiversity, with 12,933 species of which approximately 47.7% are endemic. As anthropogenic impacts are intensifying, fishery resources and biodiversity in the East China Sea are under threat from overfishing, habitat loss, pollution, and biological invasions. Marine protected areas (MPAs) and other spatial management measures are believed useful tools to protect and restore biological resources. Seventeen nature reserves, seven special marine reserves, and three fishery resource conservation zones covering a combined area of 102,156 km² have so far been established in the Chinese East China Sea in order to protect fishery resources, biodiversity, and marine landscapes. This article provides a review and inventory of MPAs in the Chinese East China Sea as implemented by the People's Republic of China.     

在不同水质地区实地进行海洋生物膜对SS UNS S32760不锈钢腐蚀行为研究（英文）

In the presence of biofilms, stainless steels(SS) exhibits an increase in corrosion potential, called ennoblement. In the present study, the corrosion potential(Ecorr) behavior of the duplex SS UNS S32760 was recorded simultaneously with the in situ marine biofilm formation in two areas at Arraial do Cabo,Southeastern Brazil. The biofilm at Forno Harbor(an anthropogenically disturbed area) was characterized by higher relative abundances of Bacteria at day 2, followed by diatoms(especially Navicula sp.) on day 10 and dinoflagellates on day 18,whereas no clear trend was recorded at Cabo Frio Island(an undisturbed area). The ennoblement of Ecorr values was site-dependent. In a complementary laboratory assay, biofilms were removed and the Ecorr values registered in sterile conditions for the subsequent 10 days and corroborated in situ results. Understanding biofilms and SS interactions has important implications for materials science and engineering decisions as well as helping to fill in important gaps in this knowledge.     

Numerical simulations of seasonal and interannual variability of the Black Sea thermohaline circulation

The Black Sea general circulation is simulated by a primitive equation model with active free surface. The forcing is seasonally variable and is based on available climatic data. The model reproduces the main features of the Black Sea circulation, including the river discharge effects on the mean sea level and the Bosphorus outflow. Model results show that the simulated sea surface elevation increases in spring over the whole sea, reaching a maximum in the Danube delta area. In the same region, a minimum is observed in winter. The amplitude of the seasonal oscillations (about 8–12 cm over the whole basin) is of the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal variations (about 15–18 cm between the coastal areas and the basin interior). This strong signal formed mostly by river discharges, along with the seasonal variability in the other forcing functions and the local dynamics creates a well-pronounced interannual variability. The performance of the model in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability is critically analyzed, with a special attention on the cold intermediate water formation and the circulation in the upper 150 m. The simulations demonstrate that the source of intermediate waters is on the shelf, and that the water mass in the core of cold intermediate layer changes with time as a response to the periodic forcing at sea surface. This type of variability is characterized by pronounced interannual changes, proving that important differences could exist between water mass structure in different years, even when using identical atmospheric forcings each year.     

Efficient estimation of extreme non-linear roll motions using the first-order reliability method (FORM)

In on-board decision support systems, efficient procedures are needed for real-time estimation of the maximum ship responses to be expected within the next few hours, given online information on the sea state and user-defined ranges of possible headings and speeds. For linear responses, standard frequency domain methods can be applied. For non-linear responses, as exhibited by the roll motion, standard methods such as direct time domain simulations are not feasible due to the required computational time. However, the statistical distribution of non-linear ship responses can be estimated very accurately using the first-order reliability method (FORM), which is well known from structural reliability problems. To illustrate the proposed procedure, the roll motion was modelled by a simplified non-linear procedure taking into account non-linear hydrodynamic damping, time-varying restoring and wave excitation moments, and the heave acceleration. Resonance excitation, parametric roll, and forced roll were all included in the model, albeit with some simplifications. The result is the mean out-crossing rate of the roll angle together with the most probable wave scenarios (critical wave episodes), leading to user-specified specific maximum roll angles. The procedure is computationally very effective and can thus be applied to real-time determination of ship-specific combinations of heading and speed to be avoided in the actual sea state.