Sensitivity analysis on stochastic equilibrium transportation networks using genetic algorithm

This study deals with the sensitivity analysis of an equilibrium transportation networks using genetic algorithm approach and uses the bi‐level iterative sensitivity algorithm. Therefore, integrated Genetic Algorithm‐TRANSYT and Path Flow Estimator (GATPFE) is developed for signalized road networks for various level of perceived travel time in order to test the sensitivity of perceived travel time error in an urban stochastic road networks. Level of information provided to drivers correspondingly affects the signal timing parameters and hence the Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) link flows. When the information on road system is increased, the road users try to avoid conflicting links. Therefore, the stochastic equilibrium assignment concept tends to be user equilibrium. The GATPFE is used to solve the bi‐level problem, where the Area Traffic Control (ATC) is the upper‐level and the SUE assignment is the lower‐level. The GATPFE is tested for six‐junction network taken from literature. The results show that the integrated GATPFE can be applied to carry out sensitivity analysis at the equilibrium network design problems for various level of information and it simultaneously optimize the signal timings (i.e. network common cycle time, signal stage and offsets between junctions).     

工厂火灾,爆炸场所危险度综合评价法

为减少火灾事故，介绍了“工厂火灾、爆炸场所危险度综合评价法”，“道氏法”是该法的基础。分析了“道氏法”的不足，而提出了固定危险和现实补偿的综合性计算方法。还通过实例记述了新方法的优点、基本原理和应用方法。该法能用于评价工厂企业危险设备、装置与场所的火灾、爆炸危险程度。     

Determining the Characteristics of Helical Springs for Application in Suspensions of Railway Vehicles

This study concerns the theoretical calculation of the characteristics of helical springs used, particularly, for the primary and secondary suspensions of railway vehicles: the static characteristics will be determined by an exact method where as the dynamic characteristics will be determined with the help of an approximate method whose precision is, however, sufficient to make a valid evaluation of the dynamic behavior of the vehicles themselves.

The first part of the study is presented here, while a second part will appear in the next issue of “Vehicle System Dynamics”.     

Maintenance of quick fluid rotation in the cores of long-lived oceanic eddies

Observations show a lot of coherent vortices in the World ocean with quick fluid rotation in their cores during long life time. To explain this feature, isopycnal balanced models of a circular vortex evolution with different variants of turbulent closure for isopycnal mixing considered. A linear dependence of the mixing coefficient on the local shear allows to describe damping of mixing in nearly solid body rotating core of the vortex and a gradual erosion of the core. Taking into account the radial motion leads even to increase of angular speed in time near the vortex center. There is a limit of angular speed for anticyclones defined by half of the Coriolis parameter. During the vortex evolution its size decreases in time unlike for usually used parameterization of mixing with the constant coefficient. These conclusions are supported by observational data. Maintenance of quick fluid rotation in the cores of long-lived vortices allow them to survive in their interactions with other flows and Rossby waves.     

A note on the interpretation of the dual variables in estimating traffic capacity at signal- controlled road junctions

The values of the dual variables in a constrained optimisation problem can be used to estimate the sensitivity of the optimal value of the objective function to changes in the constraints. Allsop (1972) used standard methods of linear programming to derive expressions for the sensitivity of the reserve capacity at a signal-controlled road junction to various changes in the traffic engineering constraints. That analysis used the assumption that the maximum reserve capacity would be achieved when the cycle time used is maximal. While this normally occurs, some junctions have come to light where a reduction in the cycle time increases the capacity. Allsop's analysis is extended here to account for this possibility.     

The influence of personal security fears on women's travel patterns

This paper investigates the influence that women's fears and apprehension about attack and harassment have on use of transport facilities. After initial consideration of the factors that most affect perceived risk, the personal security aspects of different modes are reviewed by reference to a survey conducted in Southampton in 1986. High levels of perceived insecurity were found, particularly for walking at night, in parks and subways and when waiting for public transport services in isolated areas. The conclusions argue that personal security is an important but neglected issue, deserving of greater attention by transport planners.     

Aspects of the stability of jack-up spud-can foundations

A three-level procedure for assessing jack-up foundation stability for more or less homogenous soils is described. The objective is to provide a rational framework for these assessments that ensures their safe operation in extended year-round operations and enables their use in deeper waters than at present.

The three levels of the procedure have to be entered successively as long as foundation stability cannot be proven. The first level is a screening exercise and essentially replaces the well-known preload check. The second level compares factored foundation loads resulting from a structural analysis with foundation capacities obtained with ultimate bearing capacity formulae. The most refined third level assesses whether the displacements associated with these loads lead to an acceptable situation, i.e. capacity increase and/or load redistribution that does not result in collapse of the jack-up unit.

Since, for maximum benefit, this third-stage analysis requires a non-linear foundation model to be linked with the structural package used: such a tool is provided in the paper. Examples are given to demonstrate the impact of the assessment procedure.

This procedure forms part of the overall in-house approach to the assessment of jack-ups and has already been offered to the jack-up industry as part of the continuing efforts towards establishing common and accepted standards for jack-up assessments. Further developments have been identified and will be pursued.     

Application of Sensitivity Methods to Analysis and Synthesis of Vehicle Dynamic Systems

The development and application of sensitivity methods for determining the effects of parameter changes on the response of vehicle dynamic systems is presented. The procedures shown can be used to enhance the analysis and synthesis processes of virtually any road or rail vehicle system regardless of its complexity. The parametric sensitivity of vehicle models in time domain, steady state models and vehicle models in frequency domain can be investigated using different types of sensitivity functions, both dimensional and dimensionless including first order standard, percentage, logarithmic, second order standard, and logarithmic and percentage sensitivity measures. These sensitivity functions and measures are determined as functions of partial derivatives of system variables taken with respect to system parameters. In the case of sensitivity functions in the frequency domain the variable values are computed as either the magnitude or phase angle of a complex element of the transfer function matrix. The methods presented enable to determine the influence of all system primary (constant) and secondary (non-constant) parameters on system primary and secondary variables. The primary variables are state variables or elements of the transfer function matrix and the secondary variables may be any functions of primary variables and system parameters. Typical secondary system parameters which can be examined include initial conditions, time variant coefficients, natural frequencies, loads, and typical secondary variables are forces, weight transfers, stability factors and energy components. The analysis of sensitivity results obtained for three vehicle handling models in both linear and nonlinear regimes of vehicle performance and utilizing various types of sensitivity functions is also presented.     

Urban travel demand: The impact of Box-Cox transformations with nonspherical residual errors

We develop an algorithm for solving regression models with Box-Cox transformations on both the dependent and independent variables, while simultaneously taking into account corrections for serial correlation of several orders and for heteroscedasticity. The latter correction is of a general form which contains as special cases most specifications of heteroscedasticity found in practice. We apply the procedure to three urban travel demand functions, two of which are currently used in their linear form by the Montreal Transit Authority, and analyze more than 100 specifications. Our results show that taking into account nonsphericalness of the residuals has a major impact on model parameter estimates, notably on those which determine the functional form of the model, and that, conversely, modifications of the functional form have strong implications for both the structure of autocorrelation and the importance of heteroscedasticity; moreover, we find interactions between autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity structures. We introduce a special measure of elasticity for variables which contain zero observations, particularly dummy variables. Moreover, we find that elasticities of demand and implicit values of time depend to a large extent on the stochastic specification of the model.