Risk management methods for the liner shipping industry: the case of the Bunker Adjustment Factor

Through the implementation of the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF), a shipowner is able to transfer the risk of fuel price fluctuation to the shipper. This and other surcharges are generally undesired by shippers who must pay this fee. The research presented provides an alternative method of risk management that is more effective than the current method, while responding to customer service demands for simplified tariffs. By strategic use of commodity futures, the shipowner is able to better reduce his/her risk exposure, transferring it to willing parties at the futures exchanges, thereby eliminating the need for the bunker surcharge.     

Incumbent responses to low-cost airline entry and exit: A spatial autoregressive panel data analysis

While the US airline industry has been substantially transformed in recent years by the growth of low-cost airlines, the cost-saving benefits of lower airfares are difficult to gauge empirically. There are two important ways in which this paper contributes to the existing literature on the impact of the low-cost carriers (LCCs). First, the availability of route-level panel data allows us to examine the role of the LCCs in the long-run adjustment of airfares as well as the responses of the incumbent carriers to LCC entry and exit in a dynamic setting. Second, we capitalize on recent developments in spatial econometrics and explicitly model the spatial dependence among adjacent airline routes, an issue often ignored by previous studies. Although most of the pro-competitive effects of LCC entry take place after entry, we find evidence that the incumbent carriers also cut airfares in anticipation of entry by the LCCs. Moreover fares remain lower even after Southwest Airlines exits. Our empirical analysis confirms the spatial dependence among airfares in adjacent routes, provides estimates of the consumer benefits from lower airfares in routes affected by LCCs, and shows that there are substantial indirect benefits, i.e. lower fares in spatially-linked, nearby routes.     

Design of Nonlinear Controllers for Active Vehicle Suspensions Using Parameter-Varying Control Synthesis

Nonlinear suspension controllers have the potential to achieve superior performance compared to their linear counterparts. A nonlinear controller can focus on maximizing passenger comfort when the suspension deflection is small compared to its structural limit. As the deflection limit is approached, the controller can shift focus to prevent the suspension deflection from exceeding this limit. This results in superior ride quality over the range of road surfaces, as well as reduced wear of suspension components. This paper presents a novel approach to the design of such nonlinear controllers, based on linear parameter-varying control techniques. Parameter-dependent weighting functions are used to design active suspensions that stiffen as the suspension limits are reached. The controllers use only suspension deflection as a feedback signal. The proposed framework easily extends to the more general case where all the three main performance metrics, i.e., passenger comfort, suspension travel and road holding are considered, and to the design of road adaptive suspensions.     

Panama Canal expansion: fuel economy and logistical risk

Since cargo capacity increases faster than fuel consumption, the significantly larger capacity fleets which will accompany expansion of the Panama Canal will introduce additional fuel economies and cost savings. Enabling larger, more fuel-efficient vessels to carry cargo the entire distance from Asia to US east-coast ports allows vessel operators to realize significant and meaningful savings compared with the alternatives of using smaller Panamax vessels for the whole distance, or sending the cargo over the US land bridge by train or truck. Fuel savings are quantified along with the monetary savings based on various assumptions for the price of fuel. These savings are dramatic and will increase directly with the price of crude petroleum. Finally, microeconomic theory is deployed to determine how cost savings will be distributed between shipping customers and vessel operators.     

An insight into the slamming behaviour of large high-speed catamarans through full-scale measurements

The slamming behaviour of a large high-speed catamaran has been investigated through the analysis of full-scale trials data. The US Navy conducted the trials in the North Sea and North Atlantic region on a 98 m wave piercer catamaran, HSV-2 Swift, designed by Revolution Design Pty Ltd and built by Incat Tasmania. For varying wave headings, vessel speeds and sea states the data records were interrogated to identify slam events. An automatic slam identification algorithm was developed, considering the measured rate of change of stress in the ship’s structure coupled with the vessel’s pitch motion. This has allowed the slam occurrence rates to be found for a range of conditions and the influence of vessel speed, wave environment and heading to be determined. The slam events have been further characterised by assessing the relative vertical velocity at impact between the vessel and the wave. Since the ship was equipped with a ride control system, its influence on the slam occurrence rates has also been assessed.     

一次磨耗轮在美国铁路市场的运用情况

从一次磨耗轮的安全性、经济性和采用一次磨耗轮的益处3方面,介绍了一次磨耗轮在美国铁路货车上的应用效果。     

Using demand elasticities from disaggregate mode choice models

Three of the most highly regarded disaggregate mode split models incorporate very different estimates of the responsiveness, or elasticity, of mode choice to changes in auto travel times and costs. These differences appear to be due in part to the varying specifications used by the model, and particularly whether certain variables (such as a dummy variable for CBD destinations or automobile ownership) are included in addition to the more traditional variables (such as travel time, cost, and household income). More research is needed on the implications of the theory of traveler choices for model specification and the effect of alternative, but theoretically justifiable, specifications on elasticity estimates. Until this research reduces our uncertainty about the elasticity of demand, analysts evaluating transportation policies should assess the sensitivity of their results to the range of plausible elasticities or models.     

Interactions between driver information,route choice,and optimal signal timing on a simple network

The interaction between driver information, route choice, and optimal traffic signal settings was investigated using a simple two-route system with a single “T” intersection and a fixed O-D demand. The logit model and the method of successive averages (MSA) were used to calculate the route choice probabilities and the stochastic equilibrium assignment. Given an assignment, signal settings which minimized average intersection delay were calculated; flow reassignment and new optimal signal settings were then obtained and this iterative process continued until convergence. The calculations were performed either directly in a combined assignment/signal optimization model or in stages using the output flows of an assignment model as inputs to TRANSYT-7F and iterating between the two models. Results show that a unique joint signal timing/assignment equilibrium is reached in all cases provided that a certain precision in drivers' perceptions is not reached. If driver information increases to this precision (bifurcation point) and beyond, results show clearly that the unique joint signal timing/assignment equilibrium no longer exists. In fact, three joint equilibria points exist after the bifurcation point. Two of these points are stable and one is not. It was found that the system yields the lowest total intersection delay when the joint equilibrium is such that all traffic and hence the major part of green time is assigned to only one of the two routes. Although this may not be feasible to implement in practice, the results indicate clearly for this simple example that there is a trade-off between a system with minimum total delay but no unique joint signal-settings/assignment equilibrium (achieved when drivers have nearly perfect information about the system) and a system with a unique joint equilibrium but with higher total delay (achieved when drivers have reasonably good but somewhat limited information). In most cases the second system seems appropriate for a number of practical reasons.     

Risk management methods for the liner shipping industry: the case of the Bunker Adjustment Factor

Through the implementation of the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF), a shipowner is able to transfer the risk of fuel price fluctuation to the shipper. This and other surcharges are generally undesired by shippers who must pay this fee. The research presented provides an alternative method of risk management that is more effective than the current method, while responding to customer service demands for simplified tariffs. By strategic use of commodity futures, the shipowner is able to better reduce his/her risk exposure, transferring it to willing parties at the futures exchanges, thereby eliminating the need for the bunker surcharge.