Modelling the investment decision of the entrepreneur in the tanker sector: choosing between a second-hand vessel and a newly built one

It is often the case that the investor in the shipping sector faces the dilemma of investing in a second-hand vessel or building a new one. This happens because an active second-hand market for almost all kinds of vessels exists. We argue that one of the prime considerations for the investment decision should not be the price of the vessel per se, second-hand (SH) or newly built (NP) but

• ?(a)?the relative price ratio (SH/NP) second-hand price over the new building price and

• ?(b)?the movement of this ratio.

We investigate the determinants of this ratio across different vessel sizes in the tanker sector and show that it can be used as an effective tool in investment decision as well as in asset appraisal.

We employ monthly data between 1995 and 2006 for four different ship sizes–VLCC, Suezmax, Aframax and Handysize–and implement an error correction model.

The investment decision depends on a number of risk and return variables as well as the perceived speed of adjustment of the price ratio to its equilibrium level.

Overall we claim that the cyclicality of the shipping sector together with expectations formed by the agents operating in it (the entrepreneur, the ship-owner and the broker), determine the movement of the ratio and hence the decision of the entrepreneur.     

Risk analysis for RoPax vessels

The paper presents the results of a recent risk analysis study for RoPax vessels, carried out as part of the activities of the SAFEDOR Integrated Project. The objective of this study was to investigate the causes of hazards during RoPax operation and quantify, to the extent possible, their frequencies and consequences. Potential scenarios initially identified and prioritised during a Hazard Identification (HAZID) session were used in the process.     

Formulating and solving the network design problem by decomposition

The optimal transportation network design problem is formulated as a convex nonlinear programming problem and a solution method based on standard traffic assignment algorithms is presented. The technique can deal with network improvements which introduce new links, which increase the capacity of existing links, or which decrease the free-flow (uncongested) travel time on existing links (with or without simultaneously increasing link capacity). Preliminary computational experience with the method demonstrates that it is capable of solving very large problems with reasonable amounts of computer time.     

邦德座驾 电影中的一抹“亮色”

相信很多人都注意到了,在007系列电影中,詹姆斯·邦德最常开的座驾应该是Aston和Lotus。当然,这些可不是唯一的007座驾,从1953年第一部007电影《诺博士》(Dr.No)开始,詹姆斯·邦德的每一部座驾可谓都是大众瞩目的焦点。在接下来的时间里,我们将为您重点介绍那些出神入化、帮助这位英国特工完成任务的超级"帮手"。     

水泥混凝土路面的现场碎石化处理

本主要介绍在北美正在处于应用和研究阶段的旧水泥混凝土路面的现场碎石化处理技术。根据水泥混凝土路面的损坏类型和严重程度，在技术上可以有几种不同的修复方法。作为一种重建方法，现场碎石化处理技术适合于大面积严重损坏的或失去结构承载力的水泥混凝土路面。目的之一是消除沥青混凝土加铺面的无法扼制的反射裂缝。这一技术在北美工程项目中不断使用的同时，仍在不断完善研究总结。国内有许多旧混凝土路面，包括机场跑道，量多面广，年久失修，有许多路面可以用现场碎石化加加铺层来重建。笔借助本与国内同行交流一些有关这一修复技术的心得，使得这一技术在国内得以被正确地认识和使用。     

沥青路面的全厚式再生暨泡沫沥青稳定(续)

泡沫沥青并不是一项新技术,早在四十多年前就已经被发现。但是直到过去一、二十年间才逐渐被人们重视而逐渐普及起来。其主要原因有以下几个方面：一是最初没有合适的设备有效而经济地提供这项技术;二是这项技术最初时属于私有专利,限制了技术的发展;第三由于近些年来对资源及环境保护的重视,人们更多地对旧有材料回收利用,从而促进了人们重新利用及开发这项技术,现在新的设备及工艺使得泡沫沥青这项技术得以更容易地实现和运用,从而在工业发达国家越来越普遍地使用。     

Multi-objective optimization of oil tanker design

Parametric optimization was applied to a double-hull AFRAMAX tanker design in order to reduce oil-outflow probability and increase cargo carrying capacity, and the results are presented here. A multi-criteria optimization procedure was set up in modeFrontier ^® using the cargo volume, the mean oil-outflow parameter and the steel weight of the cargo block as the objective functions. Calculations are based on a parametric geometric model of the ship created in NAPA ^®, and on a structural model created in POSEIDON ^®. Integration of the above software packages leads to an automated optimization procedure that provides improved feedback to the designer regarding the trade-off between the various design parameters and optimization criteria involved. The results obtained suggest notable improvements in transport capacity and oil-outflow performance for known, well-established yard designs. The presented work derives from a joint industrial project between Germanischer Lloyd (GL) and the Ship Design Laboratory of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA-SDL), which continues the work done and coordinated by NTUA-SDL within the SAFEDOR project on the same subject.     

Which factors lead to driving errors? A structural equation model analysis through a driving simulator experiment

As driving error is a main contributory factor of road accidents, its causes and consequences are of great interest in the road safety decision making process. This paper investigates several factors (including driver distraction, driver characteristics and road environment) that affect overall driving error behaviour and estimates a new unobserved variable which underlines driving errors. This estimation is performed with data obtained from a driving simulation experiment in which 95 participants covering all ages were asked to drive under different types of distraction (no distraction, conversation with passenger, cell phone use) in rural and urban road environment, as well as in both low and high traffic conditions. Driving error was then modeled as a latent variable based on several individual driving simulator parameters. Subsequently, the impact of several risk factors such as distraction, driver characteristics as well as road environment on driving error were estimated directly. The results of this complex model reveal that the impact of driver characteristics and area type are the only statistically significant factors affecting the probability of driving errors. Interestingly, neither conversing with a passenger nor talking on the cell phone have a statistically significant impact on driving error behaviour which highlights the importance of the present analysis and more specifically the development of a measure that represents overall driving error behaviour instead of individual driving errors variables.     

纽约州交通局的桥梁检查计划

在过去20年里,纽约州交通运输部(NYSDOT)已对全州1.74万公路桥梁的桥梁状况的检查和评价计划进行了管理和监督.该计划的首要目标是确保纽约的桥梁保持结构和运营安全,数据收集和报告是为桥梁所有者提供评估桥梁的状态和维护需求的主要信息来源.本文概述了纽约州交通部的桥梁检查和评价计划,包括项目范围、主要要求和特点、资源和数据应用.     

船舶遭劫持与船员国籍的非关联性探析

文中在分析索马里海域状况和索马里海盗袭击商船的历史和现状的基础上,对国际海事组织(IMO)和国际海事局(IMB)提供的有关索马里地区调查数据进行了分析,尤其是对被海盗所劫持船舶的船员构成作了详细的分析,并由此证明船员国籍和船舶劫持之间是否存在某种关系,船员是否会因为种族或者文化的原因更容易(或不容易)成为索马里海盗的受害者等。论文的研究为认识海盗的真实原因和采取对海盗的打击和预防措施提供了依据。