黎明的喧嚣——历史时期过渡的模式

通常历史学家用生日、死亡、政治大事或单一的文化事件等突然的标记来为历史分期,这使历史时间发生断裂,时代错误成为尴尬的问题.本文认为,时期的划分不应将鲜活的时间隔断.不同时期应连接流动的时间里相互联系的事件.基于赫尔德的比喻,作者提出将黎明的喧嚣作为一个历史时期过渡到下一个历史时期的模式.本文旨在从"时期"这一概念的词源、音乐及诗歌对黎明的喧嚣这一模式的再现等角度重新思考分期化问题,以说明多样性是历史时期过渡的界定性特征.时期点缀时间的流动,崭新重叠的组合并不为了真理而竞争,而是为了提供互补的含义.     

Measuring user benefits of changes in the transport system when traveler awareness is limited

This paper derives and illustrates measures for the ex ante evaluation of user benefits associated with improvements in the transport system. In contrast with conventional analyses, we assume that awareness among travelers of changes in the transport system is limited and grows over time. Specifically, we postulate that each day (trip) provides travelers with an opportunity to learn about changes that occurred recently in the transport system. This learning process may involve learning through direct experience and indirect learning through for example social networks or information provision. Our measure of user benefits incorporates the conventional logsum-measure as a special case (when full awareness is assumed) and has a closed form solution under reasonable error term assumptions. A numerical illustration provides a first sign of face validity. We derive and discuss a number of practical implications, and discuss possible model extensions.     

Variability of the western Galician upwelling system (NW Spain) during an intensively sampled annual cycle. An EOF analysis approach

The key features of the western Galician shelf hydrography and dynamics are analyzed on a solid statistical and experimental basis. The results allowed us to gather together information dispersed in previous oceanographic works of the region. Empirical orthogonal functions analysis and a canonical correlation analysis were applied to a high-resolution dataset collected from 47 surveys done on a weekly frequency from May 2001 to May 2002. The main results of these analyses are summarized bellow. Salinity, temperature and the meridional component of the residual current are correlated with the relevant local forcings (the meridional coastal wind component and the continental run-off) and with a remote forcing (the meridional temperature gradient at latitude 37°N). About 80% of the salinity and temperature total variability over the shelf, and 37% of the residual meridional current total variability are explained by two EOFs for each variable. Up to 22% of the temperature total variability and 14% of the residual meridional current total variability is devoted to the set up of cross-shore gradients of the thermohaline properties caused by the wind-induced Ekman transport. Up to 11% and 10%, respectively, is related to the variability of the meridional temperature gradient at the Western Iberian Winter Front. About 30% of the temperature total variability can be explained by the development and erosion of the seasonal thermocline and by the seasonal variability of the thermohaline properties of the central waters. This thermocline presented unexpected low salinity values due to the trapping during spring and summer of the high continental inputs from the River Miño recorded in 2001. The low salinity plumes can be traced on the Galician shelf during almost all the annual cycle; they tend to be extended throughout the entire water column under downwelling conditions and concentrate in the surface layer when upwelling favourable winds blow. Our evidences point to the meridional temperature gradient acting as an important controlling factor of the central waters thermohaline properties and in the development and decay of the Iberian Poleward Current.     

Multi‐criteria analysis for evaluating the impacts of intelligent speed adaptation

Road safety is a policy priority due to the high casualties and costs associated with road accidents. Since speed is a major cause of road accidents, in‐vehicle speed limiters or Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA), seems a promising solution. ISA implementation, however, is hindered by large uncertainties, for example about the impacts of ISA, the way users might respond to ISA, and the relationship between speed and accidents. Traditional Multi‐Criteria Analysis (MCA) has limitations in handling these uncertainties. We present an MCA approach based on exploratory modeling, which uses computational experiments to explore the multiple outcomes of ISA policies (safety, emissions, throughput, and cost) across a range of future demand scenarios, functional relationships for performance criteria, and user responses to ISA. As an illustration, by testing the impacts of different ISA penetration levels on two driver groups, we show that when compliance with ISA is expected to be low, a policy aimed only at novice drivers outperforms other ISA policies on safety improvement.     

Tanker safety: Regulatory change

There are many regulatory changes being imposed on tanker operators of new and existing ships. This paper provides a brief on the main changes and their practical impact on design and operation i.e. the significant recent and upcoming revisions to IMO MARPOL Annexes I, II and VI, SOLAS and other regulations and the IACS Common Structural Rules.     

Modelling dual carriageway lane changing using neural networks

Neural networks offer a potential alternative method of modelling driver behaviour within road traffic systems. This paper explores the application of neural networks to modelling the lane-changing decisions of drivers on dual carriageways. Two approaches are considered. The first, preliminary approach uses a prediction type of neural network with a single hidden layer and the back propagation learning algorithm to model the behaviour of an individual driver. A series of consecutive time-scan traffic patterns, which describe the driver's environment and changes over time as the selected vehicle travels along a link, are input to the neural network, which then predicts the new lane and position of the vehicle. Training data are collected from a human subject using an interactive driving simulation. The trained neural network successfully exhibited the rudiments of driving behaviour in terms of lane and speed changes. A major disadvantage of this approach was the difficulty in recording real-life data, which are required to train the neural network, for individual drivers. The second approach concentrates specifically on lane changing and makes use of a learning vector quantization classification type of neural network. Input to the neural network still consists primarily of time-scan traffic patterns, but the format is changed to facilitate the possibility of data acquisition using image processing. The neural network output classifies the input data by determining the new lane for the vehicle concerned. Performance in both testing and training was very good for data generated by the rule-based driver-decision model of a microscopic simulation. Performance in testing was less satisfactory for data taken directly from a road and highlighted the need for extensive data sets for successful training.     

Multidisciplinary marine environmental database for the Aral Sea

Special unique database management and processing system (Oceanbase) have been developed to work with the large sets of multivariable interdisciplinary oceanographic and environmental data. AralBase system developed to work with the Aral Sea interdisciplinary data is a variety of the OceanBase. AralBase is a special database application with the expanded functionality designed to explore large multidisciplinary oceanographic and environmental data sets. It provides many possibilities for data loading, selection, access, processing, analysis, preview and export. The AralBase has a customizing user-friendly multi-windows interface. A user can create his/her own desktops and open and arrange as many windows as he/she needs.The most valuable feature of AralBase is the integration of many service tools that allow the user to carry out almost all data processing without any additional software. At the moment, the database is loaded with the oceanographic and meteorological data provided by the participants of the Inco-Copernicus Aral-Kum Project.The OceanBase system and the AralBase, in particular, are the very flexible systems, and they can be used in any environmental and oceanographic project or institution dealing with the water environment (ocean, lakes, rivers) data. The preloaded data bases with the Data Explorer system module can be distributed among the interested scientists and experts to simplify drastically their work with data.     

Reducing car dependence in the heart of Europe: lessons from Germany,Austria, and Switzerland

Munich, Berlin, Hamburg, Vienna, and Zurich – the largest cities in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland – have significantly reduced the car share of trips over the past 25 years in spite of high motorisation rates. The key to their success has been a coordinated package of mutually reinforcing transport and land-use policies that have made car use slower, less convenient, and more costly, while increasing the safety, convenience, and feasibility of walking, cycling, and public transport. The mix of policies implemented in each city has been somewhat different. The German cities have done far more to promote cycling, while Zurich and Vienna offer more public transport service per capita at lower fares. All five of the cities have implemented roughly the same policies to promote walking, foster compact mixed-use development, and discourage car use. Of the car-restrictive policies, parking management has been by far the most important. The five case study cities demonstrate that it is possible to reduce car dependence even in affluent societies with high levels of car ownership and high expectations for quality of travel.     

Transport studies research in U.K. universities

British universities have entered a period of crisis. The outward manifestation of the current malady has appeared as a general cut-back in university spending. Until two or three years ago, most universities looked forward to a modest growth in activity. This has now been changed and the expectations of growth have been replaced by the reality of consolidation and modest decline. However, the universities are not alone in their dilemma. The general downturn in economic prosperity has left few institutions unscathed. Most universities, both in Britain and abroad, have therefore been forced to review their expectations and their ongoing commitments in teaching and research. The review of university activity goes much deeper than the immediate problems of finance. The current soul-searching has been sparked off by the crisis of finance, but has roots which go much deeper and touch on the very fundamentals of university education itself. In a sense, one is witnessing a belated form of public accountability: what is the purpose of a university; should its subjects be demonstrably relevant (both in themselves, as well as in their capacity to prepare students for a career); should universities engage in research and, if so, should it complement their teaching functions or be additional to it? These, and many other issues, are currently being discussed, and it is specifically with reference to their role in the field of transport research that this paper is addressed.