The future of trucking technology in Brazil: results of a technology forecasting model

Abstract

The aim of this article is to identify a set of technological events related to the Brazilian truck fleet that are well placed hierarchically regarding their possibility of occurrence and pertinence for the horizon year of 2021. For this we propose and apply a Technology Forecasting Model for trucks (called TFM/Trucks) based on the Delphi technique, considering 28 technological events associated with six internal forecasting dimensions: safety, efficient use of energy and alternative fuels, materials technology, operational schemes, comfort and environment. The ranking of the technological events, considering hypothetical situations for analysis, indicate significant concern over the safety dimension, with four of the five events (passive safety and active safety) classified among the 10 events with the greatest chance of occurring and pertinence, irrespective of the panelists' degree of specialization. The environmental dimension, with respect to the predominance of electric powered trucks with lower level of atmospheric pollutants, was always in one of the first two positions, regardless of the situation studied. In the final ranking, the five best-classified events represented the dimensions of safety, environment, materials technology and comfort, with environment and passive safety predominating.     

基于势流的水下滑翔机的飞行模拟器(英文)

Underwater gliders are recent innovative types of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) used in ocean exploration and observation. They adjust their buoyancy to dive and to return to the ocean surface. During the change of altitude, they use the hydrodynamic forces developed by their wings to move forward. Their flights are controlled by changing the position of their centers of gravity and their buoyancy to adjust their trim and heel angles. For better flight control, the understanding of the hydrodynamic behavior and the flight mechanics of the underwater glider is necessary. A 6-DOF motion simulator is coupled with an unsteady potential flow model for this purpose. In some specific cases, the numerical study demonstrates that an inappropriate stabilizer dimension can cause counter-steering behavior. The simulator can be used to improve the automatic flight control. It can also be used for the hydrodynamic design optimization of the devices.     

Centrality indicators as an instrument to evaluate the integration of urban equipment in the area of influence of a rail corridor

The objective of this work is to formulate a structure of procedures to support projects to integrate neighborhoods in the area of influence of railway corridors and the urban facilities around each station. Based on the concept of centrality, formulated mathematically by graph theory and with the support of a geographic information system (GIS), we propose interventions aiming to create a more harmonious urban environment better in tune with sustainable mobility. We highlight the relevance of quantitative approaches in the study of urban concepts to foster integration between transportation and urban development, as well as the potential of their application in various Brazilian metropolises having commuter rail systems that are currently underutilized and in the process of revitalization.     

Design and Evaluation of Robust Cooperative Adaptive Cruise Control Systems in Parameter Space

This paper is on the design of cooperative adaptive cruise control systems for automated driving of platoons of vehicles in the longitudinal direction. Longitudinal models of vehicles with simple dynamics, an uncertain first order time constant and vehicle to vehicle communication with a communication delay are used in the vehicle modeling. A robust parameter space approach is developed and applied to the design of the cooperative adaptive cruise control system. D-stability is chosen as the robust performance goal and the feedback PD controller is designed in controller parameter space to achieve this D-stability goal for a range of possible longitudinal dynamics time constants and different values of time gap. Preceding vehicle acceleration is sent to the ego vehicle using vehicle to vehicle communication and a feedforward controller is used in this inter-vehicle loop to improve performance. Simulation results of an eight vehicle platoon of heterogeneous vehicles are presented and evaluated to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed design method. Also, the proposed method is compared with a benchmark controller and the feedback only controller. Time gap regulation and string stability are used to assess performance and the effect of the vehicle to vehicle communication frequency on control system performance is also investigated.     

The Added Value of Accounting For Users’ Flexibility and Information on the Potential of a Station-Based One-Way Car-Sharing System: An Application in Lisbon,Portugal

Car-sharing systems are an alternative to private transportation whereby a person may use an automobile without having to own the vehicle. The classical systems in Europe are organized in stations scattered around the city where a person may pick up a vehicle and afterward return it to the same station (round trip). Allowing a person to drop off the vehicle at any station, called one-way system, poses a significant logistics problem because it creates a significant stock imbalance at the stations, which means that there will be times when users will not have a vehicle available for their trip. Previous mathematical programming formulations have tried to overcome this limitation by optimizing trip selection and station location in a city in order to capture the best trips for balancing the system. But there was one main limitation: The users were assumed to be inflexible with respect to their choice of a station, and held to use only the one closest to their origin and destination. If the user is willing to use the second or even the third closest station the user could benefit from using real-time information on vehicle stocks at each station and be able to select the one with available capacity. In this article we extend a previous model for trip selection and station location that takes that aspect into account by considering more vehicle pick-up and drop-off station options and then apply it to a trip origin–destination matrix from the Lisbon region in Portugal. Through the extended formulation we were able to conclude that user flexibility allied with having information on vehicle stocks increases the profit of the company, as people will go directly to a station with a vehicle available, thus making the use of the fleet more efficient. Observing the size of the stations resulting from the model, we also concluded that the effect of information is enhanced by large car-sharing systems consisting of many small stations.     

The numerical friction line

This paper presents a study on the numerical calculation of the friction resistance coefficient of an infinitely thin plate as a function of the Reynolds number. Seven eddy-viscosity models have been selected: the one-equation turbulence models of Menter and Spalart–Allmaras; the k-ω two-equation model proposed by Wilcox and its TNT, BSL and SST variants and the two-equation model. The flow has been computed at 14 Reynolds numbers in sets of seven geometrically similar Cartesian grids to allow a reliable estimation of the numerical uncertainty. The effect of the computational domain size has been reduced to negligible levels (below the numerical uncertainty). And the same holds for the iterative and round-off errors. In the finest grids of each set, the numerical uncertainty of the friction resistance coefficient is always below 1%. Special attention has further been given to the solution behaviour in the laminar-to-turbulent transition region. Curve fits have been applied to the data obtained at the 14 Reynolds numbers and the numerical friction lines are compared with four proposals from the open literature: the 1957 ITTC line, the Schoenherr line and the lines suggested by Grigson and Katsui et al. The differences between the numerical friction lines obtained with the seven turbulence models are smaller than the differences between the four lines proposed in the open literature.     

Numerical modeling of exhaust smoke dispersion for a generic frigate and comparisons with experiments

The exhaust smoke dispersion for a generic frigate is investigated numerically through the numerical solution of the governing fluid flow, energy, species and turbulence equations. The main objective of this work is to obtain the effects of the yaw angle velocity ratio and buoyancy on the dispersion of the exhaust smoke The numerical method is based on the fully conserved control-volume representation of the fully elliptic Navier-Stokes equations. Turbulence is modeled using a two-equation （k-ε） model The flow visualization tests using a 1/100 scale model of the frigate in the wind tunnel were also carried out to determine the exhaust plume path and to validatc the computational results. The results show that down wash phenomena occurs for the yaw angles between ψ=10° and 20°. The results with different exhaust gas temperatures show that the buoyancy effect increases with the increasing of the exhaust gas temperature. However, its effect on the plume rise is less significant in comparison with its momentum. A good agreement between the predictions and experiment results is obtained.     

Applying a structured simulation-based methodology to assess carpooling time–space potential

Abstract

Increasing urban traffic congestion calls for the study of alternative measures. One such measure is carpooling, a system in which a person shares his private vehicle with one or more people in a commuter trip. In principle, this system could lead to potentially significant reductions in the use of private vehicles; however, in practice it has achieved limited success. In this paper, we apply a simulation-based methodology that uses aggregated data from commuter trips in an urban area to create compatible and feasible random trips. These are then analyzed through a heuristic process recursively to find grouping possibilities, thus producing indicators of carpooling potential such as the percentage of matched trips. Using this methodology, simulations are run for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (Portugal) and results show that an increase in the number of participants in a carpooling scheme will only increase the probability of matching up to a certain point, and that this probability varies significantly with time–space trip attributes.     

Emission-robust operation of diesel HEV considering transient emissions

In this paper, we consider a method to create an engine emission simulation model for cycle and customer driving of a vehicle. The emission model results from an empiric approach, also taking into account the effects of engine dynamics on emissions. We analysed transient engine emissions in driving cycles and during representative customer driving profiles and created emission meta models. The analysis showed a significantly higher correlation in emissions when simulating realistic customer driving profiles using the created verified meta models (< 1 % model error) compared to static approaches, which are commonly used for vehicle simulation. Therefore, a transient modelling approach is conducted, which shows a great increase in accuracy in customer driving operation.     

The ‘redheads’ of Niamey: an original way of providing urban transport

In Niamey, private motor vehicles carry 80% of those who use public transport. These vehicles are urban shared taxis called ‘redheads’ and run through the streets of the city in all directions. Their vital importance for the mobility of city‐dwellers justifies their strict supervision and the setting of fares by public authorities.

At present, the ‘redheads’ are in crisis. Taxi owners are no longer able to make a profit on their capital and are ceasing to invest. Urban buses are unable to replace taxis, for they operate at a large deficit. The government of Niger hopes to restore the level of transport service by means of new regulations for the taxi business in the city.

But this business is in the hands of both taxi owners and drivers, who, while partners in the operation, dispute over their share of the revenues. The aim of this article is to provide an economic and political analysis of this particular form of production of urban transport, in which employers who cannot control their companies, employees who reserve the profits of the business for themselves, and public authorities who are compelled to intervene, are coming face to face.