Sensitivity analysis on stochastic equilibrium transportation networks using genetic algorithm

This study deals with the sensitivity analysis of an equilibrium transportation networks using genetic algorithm approach and uses the bi‐level iterative sensitivity algorithm. Therefore, integrated Genetic Algorithm‐TRANSYT and Path Flow Estimator (GATPFE) is developed for signalized road networks for various level of perceived travel time in order to test the sensitivity of perceived travel time error in an urban stochastic road networks. Level of information provided to drivers correspondingly affects the signal timing parameters and hence the Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) link flows. When the information on road system is increased, the road users try to avoid conflicting links. Therefore, the stochastic equilibrium assignment concept tends to be user equilibrium. The GATPFE is used to solve the bi‐level problem, where the Area Traffic Control (ATC) is the upper‐level and the SUE assignment is the lower‐level. The GATPFE is tested for six‐junction network taken from literature. The results show that the integrated GATPFE can be applied to carry out sensitivity analysis at the equilibrium network design problems for various level of information and it simultaneously optimize the signal timings (i.e. network common cycle time, signal stage and offsets between junctions).     

工厂火灾,爆炸场所危险度综合评价法

为减少火灾事故，介绍了“工厂火灾、爆炸场所危险度综合评价法”，“道氏法”是该法的基础。分析了“道氏法”的不足，而提出了固定危险和现实补偿的综合性计算方法。还通过实例记述了新方法的优点、基本原理和应用方法。该法能用于评价工厂企业危险设备、装置与场所的火灾、爆炸危险程度。     

Trading strategies in the market for tankers

This paper introduces a new approach in timing the sale and purchase of ships in the tanker market and examines the performance of this trading strategy over the period January 1976 to September 2004. Based on the long-run cointegration relationship between earnings and price, we establish a trading model which can be used as an indicator of investment or divestment timing decisions. We also perform statistical tests using the bootstrap approach in order to discount the possibility of data snooping biases and test the robustness of our trading models. Our results indicate that trading strategies based on earning-price ratios significantly out-perform buy and hold strategies in the tanker market.     

A system dynamics approach to land use/transportation system performance modeling Part I: Methodology

This paper presents a system dynamics approach to simultaneous land use/transportation system performance modeling. A model is designed based on the causality functions and feedback loop structure between a large number of physical, socioeconomic, and policy variables. The model consists of 7 sub‐models: population, migration of population, household, job growth‐employment‐land availability, housing development, travel demand, and traffic congestion level. The model is formulated in DYNAMO simulation language, and tested on a data set from Montgomery County, MD. In Part I: Methodology, the overall approach and the structure of the model system is discussed and the causal‐loop diagrams and major equations are presented. In Part II: Application, the model is calibrated and tested with data from Montgomery County, MD. Least square method and overall system behavior are used to estimate the model parameters. The model is fitted with the 1970–80 data and validated with the 1980–1990 data. Robustness and sensitivities with respect to input parameters such as birth rate or regional economy growth are analyzed. The model performance as a policy analysis tool is examined by predicting the year by year impacts of highway capacity expansion on land use and transportation system performance. While this is a first attempt in using dynamic system simulation modeling in simultaneous treatment of land use and transportation system interactions, and model development and application are limited due to data availability, the results indicate that the proposed method is a promising approach in dealing with complex urban land use/transportation modeling.     

Static and Dynamic Stability of Unsymmetric Two-Axle Railway Vehicles Possessing Perfect Steering

For railway vehicles having coned wheels mounted on solid axles, there is a conflict between the stability of lateral deviations from the motion along the track and the ability to steer round curves. A general theory is developed for the two-axle vehicle in which there is a lack of symmetry, fore-and-aft, both of the interwheelset structure and of the equivalent conicities of the wheelsets. It is shown that whilst parameters can be selected which provide static and dynamic stability and perfect steering for both directions of motion, there is a lightly damped mode of oscillation for any practical configuration and the significance of this is discussed.     

IN VITRO GLYCATION OF HEMOGLOBIN (HB):CHOOSING THE APPROPRIATE MODEL

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A maritime productivity study 1859-1919

This is one of two papers designed to test the ability of a theoretical model of productivity measurement [1] with times series empirical data. The analysis was able to identify trends in productivity growth for sailing ships and stcamships. scparating long and short run components . One of the interesting features of the findings is that the long run growth rate is the same for both sailing and steamships. Although sail and steam appear to be two unique technologies, it is found that technologica progress is evolutionary not revolutionary.

The techique using covariance analysis proved useful for times series productivity measurement.     

Latent structure in road systems

The application of Q-analysis to road transport systems is introduced in this paper, but no prior knowledge of the methodology is assumed. It is argued that the route-link relation of transport systems has a connectivity structure overlooked by conventional transportation theory, and that this structure constrains traffic flow. This is illustrated at the micro-level by a complicated road intersection, and at the macro-level with a simple analysis of a town. The representation of road systems is discussed in this context, and it leads to a new result called the Link Face Theorem. It is suggested that the conventional theory can be usefully extended by studying the latent structure of road systems which is presently overlooked.     

Link choice proportions from trip distribution and assignment models: An overview and comparison

A number of estimation procedures have been suggested for the situation where a prior estimate of an origin-destination matrix is to be updated on the basis of recently-acquired traffic counts. These procedures assume that both the link flows and the proportionate usage of each link made by each origin-destination flow (referred to collectively as the link choice proportions) are known. This paper examines the possibility and methods for estimating the link choice proportions. Three methods are presented: (1) using ad hoc iteration between trip distribution and traffic assignment; (2) combining trip distribution and assignment in one step; (3) solving a new optimization problem in which the path flows are directly considered as variables and its optimal solution is governed by a logit type formula. The algorithms, covergencies and computational efficiencies of these methods are investigated. Results of testing the three methods on example networks are discussed.