A reference-dependent user equilibrium model for activity-travel scheduling

Existing user equilibrium models of activity-travel scheduling generally fall short in representing travelers’ decision-making processes. The majority have either implicitly or explicitly assumed that travelers follow the principle of utility maximization. This assumption ignores the fact that individuals may be loss–averse when making activity-travel decisions. Allowing for the situation that travelers possess accurate information of the urban-transportation system due to modern technologies, studies on reference-dependent decision-making under near-perfect information are receiving increasing attention. In view of traveler heterogeneity, individuals can be divided into multiple classes according to their reference points. In this paper, we propose a reference-dependent multi-class user equilibrium model for activity-travel scheduling, which can be reformulated as a variational inequality problem. Moreover, comparative analyses are conducted on the equilibrium states between utility-maximization (no reference) and reference-dependency of exogenous and endogenous references. A numerical example regarding combined departure-time and mode choice for commuting is conducted to illustrate the proposed model. The simulated results indicate that reference points and loss aversion attitudes have significant effects on the choice of departure time and mode.     

Multi-state supernetwork framework for the two-person joint travel problem

Most travel behavior studies on route and mode choice focus only on an individual level. This paper adopts the concept of multi-state supernetworks to model the two-person joint travel problem (JTP). Travel is differentiated in terms of activity-vehicle-joint states, i.e. travel separately or jointly with which transport mode and with which activities conducted. In each state, route choice can be addressed given the state information and travel preference parameters. The joint travel pattern space is represented as a multi-state supernetwork, which is constructed by assigning the individual and joint networks to all possible states and connecting them via transfer links at joints where individuals can meet or depart. Besides route choice, the choices of where and when to meet, and which transport mode(s) to use can all be explicitly represented in a consistent fashion. A joint path through the supernetwork corresponds to a specific joint travel pattern. Then, JTP is reduced to an optimization problem to find the joint path with the minimum disutility. Three standard shortest path algorithm variants are proposed to find the optimal under different scenarios. The proposed framework further indicates the feasibility of multi-state supernetworks for addressing high dimensional problems and contributes to the design of a next generation of joint routing systems.     

Influence of the residential and work environment on car use in dual-earner households

This paper analyses whether the decision to commute by car is influenced by built environment characteristics of residential neighbourhoods and, more especially, of work locations, taking into account interdependencies between household partners. It shows that the residential environment only affects car use among single-earners. Conversely, for all commuters, but in particular for dual-earners, characteristics of the work location affect whether they commute by car. Even in dual-earner households with two cars, work environment plays a role. We found that in cases of dual-earners with only one car, the partners with the longest commuting distances and the lowest density work locations are most likely to commute by car. Moreover, in households with young children, men are more inclined to leave the car at home. Other features relating to work also affect car commuting, including work flexibility and, especially, possession of a company car. We conclude that future policies aimed at reducing car use should place greater focus on work factors.     

Analysis of variability in multi-day GPS imputed activity-travel diaries using multi-dimensional sequence alignment and panel effects regression models

The use of GPS devices and smartphones has made feasible the collection of multi-day activity-travel diaries. In turn, the availability of multi-day travel diary data opens up new avenues for analyzing dynamics of individual travel behavior. This paper addresses the issue of day-to-day variability in activity-travel behavior. The study, which is the first of its kind in China, applies a unique combination of methods to analyze the degree of dissimilarity between travel days using multi-day GPS data. First, multi-dimensional sequence alignment is applied to measure the degree of dissimilarity in individual daily activity-travel sequences between pairs of travel days. Next, a series of panel effects regression models is used to estimate the effects of socio-demographics and days of the week. The models are estimated using multi-day activity-travel patterns imputed from GPS-enabled smartphone data collected in Shanghai, China. Results indicate that (1) days of the week have significant effects on day-to-day variability in activity-travel behavior with weekday activity-travel sequences being more similar and thereby different from weekend sequences; (2) the degree of dissimilarity in activity-travel sequences is strongly influenced by respondent socio-demographic profiles; (3) individuals having more control over and flexibility in their work schedule show greater intra-personal variability. Day-to-day variability in activity-travel behavior of this sample is similar to patterns observed in developed countries in some aspects but different in others. Strict international comparison study based on comparative data collection is required to further distinguish the sources of travel behavior differences between developing countries and developed countries. The paper ends with a discussion of the limitations of this study and the implications of the research findings for future research.     

Environmental reform of West and Central Africa ports: the influence of colonial legacies

West and Central Africa ports have historically not paid much attention to environmental issues. In the past decade, however, environmental concerns are beginning to emerge with pockets of innovative responses to environmental risks as the ports undergo institutional and infrastructural reform – most notably, with concessions to multinational terminal operators. In this article, environmental management processes in the ports of Abidjan (Ivory Coast), Douala (Cameroon), Lagos (Nigeria) and Tema (Ghana) are compared. Three aspects of ecological modernization theory: changing role of the state, growing involvement of economic actors and economic incentives, and shifting roles for civil society organizations are focused on to analyse the dynamics of their environmental reform. Findings suggest that globalization processes are a common major trigger in enhancing a gradual but still fragmented and limited process of environmental reform in West and Central Africa ports, but paces and pathways of the reform are influenced by national politico-administrative arrangements rooted in colonial legacies. Consequently, understanding and advancing environmental reform processes of West and Central Africa ports requires following trends and significant developments but also taking into account national historical trajectories.     

Ships' capital costs: The approaches of economists, naval architects and business managers

This paper deals with methods for estimating building costs of ships. It starts by answering the basic questions of who needs cost estimates and why. It goes on to explain the appropriate approaches to cost estimating employed by economists, business managers, naval architects and shipyard cost estimators. It also outlines the many non-design factors (such as business and political environments) that may affect costs or prices. Certain general conclusions are reached including recognition of the need for improved cost estimating procedures, uniform accounting systems and (above all) a willingness to share cost data.     

Modeling dynamics in household car ownership over life courses: a latent class competing risks model

Transportation - This study presents a latent class competing risks model to examine the influence of socio-demographics and life course events on car transaction behaviour. The types of car...     

Representing and estimating interactions between activities in a need-based model of activity generation

Although several activity-based models made the transition to practice in recent years, modeling dynamic activity generation and especially, the mechanisms underlying activity generation are not well incorporated in the current activity-based models. For instance, current models assume that activities are independent, but to the extent that different activities fulfill the same underlying needs and act as partial substitutes, their interactions/dependencies should be taken into account. For example, recreational, leisure, and social activities tend to be partly substitutable since they satisfy a common need of relaxation, and when undertaken together with others, social needs will be satisfied as well. This paper describes the parameter estimation of a need-based activity generation model, which includes the representation of possible interaction effects between activities. A survey was carried out to collect activity data for a typical week and a specific day among a sample of individuals. The diary data contain detailed information on activity history and future planning. Estimation of the model involves a range of shopping, social, leisure, and sports activities, as dependent variables, and socioeconomic, day preference, and interaction variables, as explanatory variables. The results show that several person, household, and dwelling attributes influence activity-episode timing decisions in a longitudinal time frame and, thus, the frequency and day choice of conducting the social, leisure, and sports activities. Furthermore, interactions were found in the sense that several activities influence the need for other activities and some activities affect the utility of conducting another activity on the same day.     

Exploring ‘weak signals’' as potential challenges in transport: an inventory of potential future technology developments

This article assesses the most likely technological developments in transport, not only by investigating current innovations but also by observing different approaches to confronting future developments. The article discusses technology forecasting and the meaning of environmentally sound technologies; some insights into technology development and the relevance of technological forecasting; the factors that influence technology development in transport; and, in this context, differentiation between exploration, expectation and forecasting. It goes on to identify, from four different perspectives, major developments of strategic relevance for the transport sector that might arise in the longer term. An assessment is made of the consequences of these observations for the implementation of innovations in transport.