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31.
David T. Hartgen 《Transportation》2013,40(6):1133-1157
This study reviews the 50-year history of travel demand forecasting models, concentrating on their accuracy and relevance for public decision-making. Only a few studies of model accuracy have been performed, but they find that the likely inaccuracy in the 20-year forecast of major road projects is ±30 % at minimum, with some estimates as high as ±40–50 % over even shorter time horizons. There is a significant tendency to over-estimate traffic and underestimate costs, particularly for toll roads. Forecasts of transit costs and ridership are even more uncertain and also significantly optimistic. The greatest knowledge gap in US travel demand modeling is the unknown accuracy of US urban road traffic forecasts. Modeling weaknesses leading to these problems (non-behavioral content, inaccuracy of inputs and key assumptions, policy insensitivity, and excessive complexity) are identified. In addition, the institutional and political environments that encourage optimism bias and low risk assessment in forecasts are also reviewed. Major institutional factors, particularly low local funding matches and competitive grants, confound scenario modeling efforts and dampen the hope that technical modeling improvements alone can improve forecasting accuracy. The fundamental problems are not technical but institutional: high non-local funding shares for large projects warp local perceptions of project benefit versus costs, leading to both input errors and political pressure to fund projects. To deal with these issues, the paper outlines two different approaches. The first, termed ‘hubris’, proposes a multi-decade effort to substantially improve model forecasting accuracy over time by monitoring performance and improving data, methods and understanding of travel, but also by deliberately modifying the institutional arrangements that lead to optimism bias. The second, termed ‘humility’, proposes to openly quantify and recognize the inherent uncertainty in travel demand forecasts and deliberately reduce their influence on project decision-making. However to be successful either approach would require monitoring and reporting accuracy, standards for modeling and forecasting, greater model transparency, educational initiatives, coordinated research, strengthened ethics and reduction of non-local funding ratios so that localities have more at stake. 相似文献
32.
This paper examines the location choice associated with discretionary activities (in-home vs. out-of-home). These substitution
patterns are important in terms of travel demand as in-home activities do not necessitate travel while out-of-home activities
incur travel. Mixed logit models are estimated using an activity dataset (2003 CHASE data) to analyze the factors associated
with this choice at the individual activity-level. Results suggest that the attributes of an activity significantly contribute
to understanding the likelihood of engaging in out-of-home activities. Activity type interaction terms reveal the varying
influence that socio-demographics, activity attributes and travel have over four different activity types modeled. The results
reveal that the location choice (in-home vs. out-of-home) is sensitive to travel characteristics. As the travel time and cost
increases, an individual is less likely to engage in an activity out-of-home. Compared to passive and social activities, the
location of active activities is more sensitive to changes in travel attributes. 相似文献
33.
T.J. Andersen L.C. Lund-Hansen M. Pejrup K.T. Jensen K.N. Mouritsen 《Journal of Marine Systems》2005,55(3-4):123-138
This study was carried out to describe the difference in erodibility and aggregation in a tidal basin including both subtidal and intertidal study sites and to use these results to explain the shifting erosion/deposition cycles at the sites. Erosion thresholds, erosion rates and settling velocities of the eroded material were measured at a mudflat transect and at sediment cores taken from a nearby tidal channel during surveys made in May 2000 and March 2002. Surface samples were analysed for grain-size, chl. a content, faecal pellet content, dry bulk density and organic content. Additionally, surface samples were taken at eight occasions in the period January 2002 to May 2003 from shallow tidal channels in the area. These samples were analysed for mud content and showed that major shifts in sediment distribution occurred in the period. The erodibility of the mudflat was generally high due to pelletization by the mudsnail Hydrobia ulvae but close to the salt marsh much lower erodibility was found, probably due to stabilisation by microphytobenthos. In contrast, the erodibility of the channel bed seemed to be very little influenced by biological activity and the relatively low erodibility found here was caused by physical characteristics of the sediment. The sediment eroded from the mudflat was generally strongly pelletized and showed high settling velocities whereas less aggregation and lower settling velocities were found for the channel bed sediments. Temporal variations of the mudflat stability and hydrodynamics resulted in temporal variations of deposition and erosion and the changing stability at the mudflat is likely to be one of the main reasons for a general transport of fine-grained sediment from the mudflat to the channel in the cold seasons and vice versa during the rest of the year. 相似文献
34.
This paper provides statistical evidence in support of the view, widely held in the tanker industry, that there are systematic differences in the degree of risk involved in investing in tankers of different sizes, and in operating tankers in spot and time charter markets. The industry view, broadly supported by the results of this paper, is that larger vessels are 'risker' assets than smaller vessels, and operating vessels in the time-charter market is less risky than employing them on a spot basis. The results are obtained by using a method derived from the financial economics literature, which models both the conditional mean and variance of a variable, known as GARCH modelling. Only one other paper has applied this method to the tanker market, and these results provide confirmatory support of those findings. 相似文献
35.
A country can adopt one of two standards for traffic flow — cars may travel on the left or right side of the road. When drivers
who are accustomed to driving on the right side of the road drive on the left side, and vice versa, the mental workload is
likely increased due to the driver’s unfamiliarity with a new language, the position of the driver’s seat, different driving
directions, and other factors that differ from those of their home country. One method of doing this is to make sure that
the in-vehicle route guidance information (RGI) is not overly complicated — thereby assisting drivers in improving their safety.
Consequently, the aim of this study was to facilitate mobility and improve safety for natural right-side drivers driving temporarily
in left-side traffic. In this study, driver behavior and workload — given various types of RGI — were evaluated in a driving
simulator with a variety of prescribable test conditions. This research was composed of two experiments. In the first, various
types of in-vehicle route guidance systems were tested and evaluated in terms of their characteristics and associated driver
behaviors (while driving). In the second experiment, systemic factors and effectiveness were evaluated by two combined systems,
arrow and map-type information, based on the results of the first experiment. In light of both experiments, the various types
of route guidance systems were discussed in terms of their results. A navigation system was proposed to alleviate some of
the secondary tasks such as route selection. 相似文献
36.
Fast and predictive simulation tools are prerequisites for pursuing simulation based engine control development. A particularly
attractive tradeoff between speed and fidelity is achieved with a co-simulation approach that marries a commercial gas dynamic
code WAVE™ with an in-house quasi-dimensional combustion model. Gas dynamics are critical for predicting the effect of wave
action in intake and exhaust systems, while the quasi-D turbulent flame entrainment model provides sensitivity to variations
of composition and turbulence in the cylinder. This paper proposes a calibration procedure for such a tool that maximizes
its range of validity and therefore achieves a fully predictive combustion model for the analysis of a high degree of freedom
(HDOF) engines. Inclusion of a charge motion control device in the intake runner presented a particular challenge, since anything
altering the flow upstream of the intake valve remains “invisible” to the zero-D turbulence model applied to the cylinder
control volume. The solution is based on the use of turbulence multiplier and scheduling of its value. Consequently, proposed
calibration procedure considers two scalar variables (dissipation constant C
β
and turbulence multiplier C
M
), and the refinements of flame front area maps to capture details of the spark-plug design, i.e. the actual distance between
the spark and the surface of the cylinder head. The procedure is demonstrated using an SI engine system with dual-independent
cam phasing and charge motion control valves (CMCV) in the intake runner. A limited number of iterations led to convergence,
thanks to a small number of adjustable constants. After calibrating constants at the reference operating point, the predictions
are validated for a range of engine speeds, loads and residual fractions. 相似文献
37.
Peter T.Leach 《中国远洋航务》2008,(4):55
今年关于太平洋航线有两个不确定因素,即美国进口量增长将会大大放缓,同时美国出口量会继续增加.因此,几乎所有其他的问题都是不确定的:进口量是否会增长还是会减少? 相似文献
38.
39.
Peter T.Leach 《中国远洋航务》2008,(4):55
今年关于太平洋航线有两个不确定因素,即美国进口量增长将会大大放缓,同时美国出口量会继续增加。因此,几乎所有其他的问题都是不确定的:进口量是否会增长还是会减少?航运公司是否会随着船只规模的增加,而为贸易业务分配更多运力,或者仅仅保持现有运力?他们是否能够成功增加运费以弥补成本的增长?发货人是否同意支付完全不固定的船舶燃油附加费? 相似文献
40.
The galvanic corrosion behavior of the metal combinations 15 CDV6/MDN138 and 15 CDV6/MDN250, with 1:1 area ratio, has been studied in natural seawater using the open well facility of CECRI's Offshore Platform at Tuticorin for a year. The open circuit potentials of MDN138, MDN250, and 15 CDV6 of the individual metal, the galvanic potential and galvanic current of the couples 15 CDV6/MDN138 and 15 CDV6/MDN250, were periodically monitored throughout the study period. The calcareous deposits on MDN138 and MDN250 in galvanic contact with 15 CDV6 were analyzed using XRD. The electrochemical behavior of MDN138, MDN250, and 15 CDV6 in seawater was studied using an electrochemical work station. The surface characteristics of MDN138 and MDN250 in galvanic contact with 15 CDV6 have been examined with a scanning electron microscope. The results of the study reveal that the galvanic protection offered by15 CDV6 to MDN250 and MDN138 in natural seawater amounts to 93% and 98%, respectively, implying that the galvanic protection offered by 15 CDV6 is continuous and effective, which has been further evinced from the adherent nature of the calcareous deposit film comprising compounds such as CaCO_3(calcite, aragonite, and vaterite), MgCO_3(magnesite),Mg(OH)_2(brucite), and MgO(brucite). 相似文献