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In many developing countries, massive investment in transit infrastructure is concurrent with the proliferation of automobiles. Planners expect that investment can slow the growth of auto ownership. However, few studies have examined the relationships between transit access and auto ownership in developing countries, whereas research in developed countries offers mixed findings and the outcomes may not be applicable to developing countries. This study employs a random effect ordered probit model on data collected from Guangzhou residents in 2011–2012. We find that transit access is negatively associated with auto ownership, after controlling for demographics and other built environment variables. This result suggests that, although income is the dominant driver for auto ownership in growing developing countries, transit investment is a promising strategy to slow the growth of auto ownership. This study also highlights the importance of addressing spatial dependency in clustered data. 相似文献
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Severity of pedestrian injuries due to traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong: a Bayesian spatial logit model
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The present study intended to (1) investigate the injury risk of pedestrian casualties involved in traffic crashes at signalized intersections in Hong Kong; (2) determine the effect of pedestrian volumes on the severity levels of pedestrian injuries; and (3) explore the role of spatial correlation in econometric crash‐severity models. The data from 1889 pedestrian‐related crashes at 318 signalized intersections between 2008 and 2012 were elaborately collected from the Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Hong Kong Transport Department. To account for the cross‐intersection heterogeneity, a Bayesian hierarchical logit model with uncorrelated and spatially correlated random effects was developed. An intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior was specified for the spatial correlation term. Results revealed that (1) signalized intersections with greater pedestrian volumes generally exhibited a lower injury risk; (2) ignoring the spatial correlation potentially results in reduced model goodness‐of‐fit, an underestimation of variability and standard error of parameter estimates, as well as inconsistent, biased, and erroneous inference; (3) special attention should be paid to the following factors, which led to a significantly higher probability of pedestrians being killed or sustaining severe injury: pedestrian age greater than 65 years, casualties with head injuries, crashes that occurred on footpaths that were not obstructed/overcrowded, heedless or inattentive crossing, crashes on the two‐way carriageway, and those that occurred near tram or light‐rail transit stops. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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太阳能游览船能量平衡及续航里程研究 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
以某太阳能游览船为对象,分析船机桨能量平衡关系,建立船舶运动能量计算模型,计算匀速航速下的能量消耗,根据电池输出能量与船舶航行消耗能量相等原则,预测游览船续驶里程。通过实际运行数据表明,该模型能够较为准确的计算消耗功率,有效地预测游船的续驶里程。 相似文献
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动力耦合装置是混合动力车辆的关键技术之一.文章以行星齿轮式动力耦合装置为研究对象,通过建立模型,从整车角度出发进行了系统仿真研究.结果表明,该动力耦合装置具有良好的综合性能,与同类型的传统燃油车辆相比,可以很好地降低燃油消耗. 相似文献
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BOB系列客车是黄海公司为满足2008年北京奥运会需求精心设计的中高档城市客车。本文以黄海DD6129S06低地板城市客车为例,详细叙述其轮罩结构的改进。 相似文献
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基于Wilson熵分布假设的交通公平性量化评价模型 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
在对交通公平性的量化评价方法进行考察的基础上,从效益分配符合"W ilson熵分布"的假设出发,尝试建立了群体决策型的公平性量化评价模型,该模型综合考虑了区域公平性和不同群体效益归属公平性.对于模型的分析表明交通设施的群体决策型公平性量化评价模型具有最佳解.同时通过数学方法可以证明建立的基于"W ilson熵分布"假设的交通公平性量化评价模型能很好地体现对于弱势群体和不发达区域的效益"补偿"作用.分析结果表明该模型用于交通公平性评价是合理、可行的. 相似文献