Maritime accident investigation and temporal determinants of maritime accidents: A case study

This paper presents the results of an investigation into temporal determinants of maritime accidents based on a data-set obtained from the proceedings of formal inquiries in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR). The results show that there is no statistically significant outcome between the probability for an accident and the time of watch. Thus the results do not confirm previous studies, which reported significant time of day effects.The outcome of this study indicates that marine inquiries can provide useful data for an analysis of underlying causes of maritime accidents. It is suggested that accident inquiries should be extended into the area of watch systems employed and should record the hours of work and of rest of the officers on the watch involved in a maritime accident.     

The role of professional associations in shipping

This article is in three parts. The first covers the historical development of qualifying associations. The second covers the particular role of maritime institutions that include The Royal Institution of Naval Architects, The Institute of Marine Engineering Science and Technology and The Nautical Institute. The third and final section considers the future for maritime professional associations in the context of international shipping.     

A high order linear model for the prediction of internal lee waves at the main sill of the Strait of Gibraltar

A linear theory for the physical fields in the water column under the action of large amplitude internal lee waves at the main sill of the Strait of Gibraltar is developed. The procedure is a combination of the perturbation and normal modes methods in order to study steady resonant conditions. The lowest order linear approach of the methodology resumes the Taylor–Goldstein equation, which can reconstruct the main features of the observed fields but the high order approach gives the finest structure and sometimes the largest contributions. The role of the non-linear terms is investigated up to the second order taking into account the non-linear interactions between modes, leading to an effective reconstruction of the whole water column for the velocity field.     

Estimation of origin‐destination matrices for a multimodal public transit network

This paper presents a procedure for the estimation of origin‐destination (O‐D) matrices for a multimodal public transit network. The system consists of a number of favored public transit modes that are obtained from a modal split process in a traditional four‐step transportation model. The demand of each favored mode is assigned to the multimodal network, which is comprised of a set of connected links of different public transit modes. An entropy maximization procedure is proposed to simultaneously estimate the O‐D demand matrices of all favored modes, which are consistent with target data sets such as the boarding counts and line segment flows that are observed directly in the network. A case study of the Hong Kong multimodal transit network is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.     

A traffic flow simulator for short‐term travel time forecasting

This paper presents an off‐line forecasting system for short‐term travel time forecasting. These forecasts are based on the historical traffic count data provided by detectors installed on Annual Traffic Census (ATC) stations in Hong Kong. A traffic flow simulator (TFS) is developed for short‐term travel time forecasting (in terms of offline forecasting), in which the variation of perceived travel time error and the fluctuations of origin‐destination (O‐D) demand are considered explicitly. On the basis of prior O‐D demand and partial updated detector data, the TFS can estimate the link travel times and flows for the whole network together with their variances and covariances. The short‐term travel time forecasting by O‐D pair can also be assessed and the O‐D matrix can be updated simultaneously. The application of the proposed off‐line forecasting system is illustrated by a numerical example in Hong Kong.     

Multiphysic modelling of railway vehicles equipped with pneumatic suspensions

This article presents a multidisciplinary approach of railway pneumatic suspension modelling: both multibody and pneumatic aspects are taken into account. The work aims at obtaining a realistic model of the secondary suspension and coupling it with a multibody model of a train. Various components of the pneumatic circuit such as bellows, tanks, pipes and valves are taken into account. The article focuses on the bellow-pipe-tank subsystem for which several modelling approaches are presented and compared. Differences between differential and algebraic models are highlighted, and an application-dependent choice between them is suggested. A complete model of the pneumatic circuit is then obtained and coupled with a multibody model of the train. As a result, the behaviour of a suburban train equipped with a pneumatic secondary suspension is analysed, in particular undesired oscillating motions which affect the comfort. Topological modifications and improvements of the suspension are also investigated and discussed.     

Impact of information technology on public transport fares data

The work described was undertaken as part of the CASSIOPE project in the EC DRIVE programme. A range of fare collection procedures in public transport is described, and the importance of these for data collection by operators is stressed. It is suggested that such data management could be standardized and to this end four case studies were carried out in different European cities. Data models were built for each city, and these models are merged into a preliminary version of a generalized model. The need and uses for such a fare collection data model is explained.     

The dynamics of traffic assignment and traffic control: A theoretical study

The paper considers traffic assignment, with traffic controls, in an increasingly dynamic way. First, a natural way of introducing the responsive policy, P_o, into steady state traffic assignment is presented. Then it is shown that natural stability results follow within a dynamical version of this static equilibrium model (still with a constant demand). We are able to obtain similar stability results when queues are explicitly allowed for, provided demand is constant. Finally we allow demand to vary with time; we consider the dynamic assignment problem with signal-settings now fixed. Here we assume that vehicles are very short and that deterministic queueing theory applies, and show that the time-dependent queueing delay at the bottleneck at the end of a link is a monotone function of the time-dependent input profile to the bottleneck. We have been unable to obtain results when dynamic demand and responsive signal control are combined.     

Intra-Platoon Collision Behavior during Emergency Operations

This paper presents current research regarding intra-platoon collision dynamics for rapid decelerations. Measures of ride quality and impact severity are introduced to allow comparisons between different collision scenarios. In this study, the disturbance input to the platoon is assumed to be a rapid braking of the lead vehicle. Several deceleration rates are used to assess the overall platoon behavior and the effect of the intra-platoon collisions on the platoon passengers. The role of the desired headway spacing on preventing the occurrence of intra-platoon collisions and improving rider comfort is discussed.