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61.
Dongjoo Park Laurence R. Rilett Byron J. Gajewski Clifford H. Spiegelman Changho Choi 《Transportation》2009,36(1):77-95
With the recent increase in the deployment of ITS technologies in urban areas throughout the world, traffic management centers
have the ability to obtain and archive large amounts of data on the traffic system. These data can be used to estimate current
conditions and predict future conditions on the roadway network. A general solution methodology for identifying the optimal
aggregation interval sizes for four scenarios is proposed in this article: (1) link travel time estimation, (2) corridor/route
travel time estimation, (3) link travel time forecasting, and (4) corridor/route travel time forecasting. The methodology
explicitly considers traffic dynamics and frequency of observations. A formulation based on mean square error (MSE) is developed
for each of the scenarios and interpreted from a traffic flow perspective. The methodology for estimating the optimal aggregation
size is based on (1) the tradeoff between the estimated mean square error of prediction and the variance of the predictor,
(2) the differences between estimation and forecasting, and (3) the direct consideration of the correlation between link travel
time for corridor/route estimation and forecasting. The proposed methods are demonstrated using travel time data from Houston,
Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system of the Houston Transtar system. It
was found that the optimal aggregation size is a function of the application and traffic condition.
相似文献
Changho ChoiEmail: |
62.
The impact of climate change and weather on transport: An overview of empirical findings 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Mark J. Koetse Piet Rietveld 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2009,14(3):205-221
This paper presents a survey of the empirical literature on the effects of climate change and weather conditions on the transport sector. Despite mixed evidence on many issues, several patterns can be observed. On a global scale especially shifts in tourism and agricultural production due to increased temperatures may lead to shifts in passenger and freight transport. The predicted rise in sea levels and the associated increase in frequency and intensity of storm surges and flooding incidences may furthermore be some of the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas. Climate change related shifts in weather patterns might also cause infrastructure disruptions. Clear patterns are that precipitation affects road safety by increasing accident frequency but decreasing severity. Precipitation also increases congestion, especially during peak hours. Furthermore, an increased frequency of low water levels may considerably increase costs of inland waterway transport. Despite these insights, the net impact of climate change on generalised costs of the various transport modes are uncertain and ambiguous, with a possible exception for inland waterway transport. 相似文献
63.
Kelly J. Clifton Carolina V. Burnier Gulsah Akar 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2009,14(6):425-436
This paper examines the impact of personal and environmental characteristics on severity of injuries sustained in pedestrian–vehicle crashes using a generalized ordered probit model. The data covers 2000–2004 of pedestrian–vehicle crashes taken from police incident reports for Baltimore City and supplemented with local land use, urban form and transportation information specific to the individual crash locations. The results on personal and behavioral variables confirm previous findings. Women pedestrians involved in crashes tend to be injured less frequently than their male counterparts; children have an increased likelihood of sustaining injuries and older persons are more likely to be fatally injured. Pedestrians who cross against the traffic signal, are not in a crosswalk and are involved in a crash after dark are associated with greater injury risk. Of the built environment policy variables of interest, transit access and greater pedestrian connectivity, such as central city areas, are significant and negatively associated with injury severity. These results suggest that the environmental conditions should be given more scrutiny and be an important consideration when evaluating and planning for pedestrian safety. 相似文献
64.
Matthew J. BeckJohn M. Rose David A. Hensher 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2012,46(1):226-239
Data is typically gathered from an individual respondent who represents the group or the household. This individual is often identified as the “primary decision maker” and is asked to provide responses as a proxy for the group given that the cost of interviewing each member individually is impractical and/or expensive. The collection of joint preferences is rarely undertaken, with the use of proxy responses not uncommon in travel behaviour research. Under such a framework, there exists an assumption that the primary decision maker has perfect knowledge of other group member preferences, and bargaining behaviour, and is able to synthesise this information when providing a response on their behalf. The validity of such an assumption however remains an open question, with recent research calling the reliability of proxy responses into account (Bateman and Munro, 2009). In this paper, using three models estimated in willingness to pay space, we examine the accuracy of proxy responses in a stated choice experiment. We find that there is overlap between a proxy response and the own preferences of the individual providing the proxy choice, but while the proxy responses fail to represent the full preference heterogeneity that exists in the actual choices made by individuals, the proxy responses in aggregate provide a suitable replacement for actual data, subject to a number of caveats. 相似文献
65.
E. Freitas C. Mendonça J.A. Santos C. MurteiraJ.P. Ferreira 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2012,17(4):321-326
In this paper, annoyance ratings from traffic noise recorded on cobblestones, dense asphalt, and open asphalt rubber pavements are assessed with regard to car speeds and traffic densities. It was found that cobblestones pavements are the most annoying; also while open asphalt rubber pavement imposes less annoyance than dense asphalt it is not significantly different. Higher car speeds always lead to greater annoyance, as does higher traffic densities. LAeq and LAmax correlate well with annoyance, but loudness is the best predictor. Roughness and sharpness exhibit inconsistent interactions. 相似文献
66.
Modelling the impact of weather conditions on active transportation travel behaviour 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Sheyda Saneinejad Matthew J. RoordaChristopher Kennedy 《Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment》2012,17(2):129-137
Three weather sensitive models are used to explore the relationship between weather and home-based work trips within the City of Toronto, focusing on active modes of transportation. The data are restricted to non-captive commuters who have the option of selecting among five basic modes of auto driver, auto passenger, transit, bike and walk. Daily trip rates in various weather conditions are assessed. Overall, the results confirm that impact of weather on active modes of transportation is significant enough to deserve attention at the research, data collection and planning levels. 相似文献
67.
Rosa Marina González Concepción Román Francisco Javier Amador Luis Ignacio Rizzi Juan de Dios Ortúzar Raquel Espino Juan Carlos Martín Elisabetta Cherchi 《Transportation》2018,45(2):499-521
We estimated the benefits associated with reducing fatal and severe injuries from traffic accidents using a stated choice experiment where choice situations were generated through a statistically efficient design. Specifically, the risk variables were defined as the expected annual number of vehicle car-users that suffered their death or were severely injured in a traffic accident. In addition, and differing from previous research, the number of pedestrians that died or were severely injured in traffic accidents per year was also included as a risk attribute in the choice experiment, to attempt at measuring drivers’ willingness to pay to reduce the risk of hitting pedestrians in a crash. The empirical setting was a choice of route for a particular trip that a sample of car drivers periodically undertakes in Tenerife, Spain. Models were estimated accounting for random taste heterogeneity and pseudo-panel data correlation. The median of the distribution of simulated parameters was used to obtain a representative measure for the monetary valuation of risk reductions. We found that the ratio between the values of reducing the risk of suffering a serious injury and that of reducing a fatality was approximately 18 %. Further, and quite novel, we also found that the value of reducing a pedestrian fatality was 39 % of the value of reducing a car occupant fatality. 相似文献
68.
For existing advanced geological forecasting, the forecast distance is short and the test frequency is high, increasing test and construction risks. Since various methods have different requirements for the test environ-ment, preparation work can be tedious and result in a long construction time thereby affecting normal construction.A new advanced geological forecast technique based on multi-source seismic interferometry for tunnels is proposed.This technique uses the blast at one end of tunnel as a centrum and receives the signal at the other end of the tun-nel, therefore allowing advanced geological forecasting of the unexcavated tunnel part by relative processing and im-aging. A numerical simulation of this kind of geological forecasting using the finite difference method to simulate two kinds of unfavorable geological bodies (karst and a fault) predicted them accurately and verified the effective-ness and accuracy of this geological forecasting method. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved. 相似文献
69.
Wei X.Liu X.Duan Y.Feng J.Qiao N.Guo L. 《现代隧道技术》2018,(3):220-228
Water-sealed underground oil tank projects are quite different from traditional underground projects since the water-sealing conditions are very strict and the difficulties caused by the geological specificity, structural specificity and construction specificity are key factors affecting the project. In light of the significant early initial setting time and rapid temperature increase of sulphoaluminate cement-based grouting material for a large domestic water-sealed underground oil tank with pressurized cyclic grouting, a laboratory grouting simulation is conducted. It is found that the properties of the sulphoaluminate cement-based grouting material are quite different under different pressure cycles, the hydration exothermic peak time gets shorter with an increase of circulation time, the compressive strength decreases with an increase of circulation time, and the longer the circulation time the more obvious the de-crease of compressive strength. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved. 相似文献
70.
More and more multiple-track tunnels and super-large section tunnels have been built, and disman- tling of temporary strut is a weak point of the whole structure during force transfer when the secondary lining is con- structed. It is significant to guarantee structure safety during dismantling of temporary strut. Little systematic re- search on safety in dismantling of temporary strut of the super-large section tunnel with double-layer primary support has been conducted, so the internal force and security of the two-layer primary support of the Xinkaotang tunnel were analyzed by a numerical analysis and site measurement, and it proves the effect of two-layer primary support on the safety during strut dismantling. The research results indicate that: (1) with constant support thickness and one-time longitudinal dismantling length, the safety factor of secondary primary support is larger than that of the first primary support, and the safety factor of the first primary support is larger than that of the single-layer primary support. Change range of safety factor for the first primary support is smaller than that of the single-layer primary support, and the safe factor for the single-layer primary support is smaller than that of the secondary primary support; (2) with the same support pattern, the safety factors increase firstly and then decrease with an increase of the onetime dismantling length. The calculated results of various cases show that the reasonable one-time dismantling length for this project is about 9 m. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved. 相似文献