A methodological challenge is to develop methods which satisfy the need in transport planning of accurately forecasting travel behavior. Drawing on a review of the current state of attitude theory, it is argued that successfully forecasting travel behavior relies on a distinction between planned, habitual, and impulsive travel. Empirical illustrations are provided in the form of stated-response data from two experiments investigating the validity of an interactive interview procedure to predict household car use for different types of trips, either before or after participants were required to reduce use. 相似文献
Work zone related traffic delay is an important cost component on freeways with maintenance activities. This study demonstrates that delays may be underestimated by using the deterministic queuing theory. Computer simulation is a valuable approach of estimating delay under a variety of existing and future conditions. However, a single simulation run, which can be quite costly in terms of both computer and analyst time, produces a delay estimate for only one traffic level under one set of conditions. A method is developed in this paper to approximate delays by integrating limited simulation data, obtained from CORSIM and the concept of deterministic queuing theory, while various geometric conditions and time‐varying traffic distribution are considered. A calibrated and validated simulation model that can reflect work zone traffic operations on a segment of Interstate 1–80 in New Jersey is used to generate data for developing the proposed model. The comparison of delays estimated by the deterministic queuing model and the proposed model is conducted, while factors affecting the accuracy of the delay estimates are discussed. 相似文献
Urban areas are very complex and heterogeneous in terms of their population composition and activity systems. The transport system, modal choices and service levels available to the population also varies considerably across space and time. These similarities and differences in choices and levels of explanatory variables facing individual tripmakers have to be explicitly considered in any study of transport behvior. The common practice has been to include user attributes, in addition to the system characteristics, in the modal utility functions to help capture differences in choice behavior across individuals. However, it could well be that the mode-choice behavior of a segment of the population is fundamentally different from other segments of the population. In view of this, some studies have applied segmentation schemes to help identify the subgroups of presumably different travel responses. Typically, such schemes have been based on stratification of the population by a single variable, chosen either based on a priori notions or one-way cross tabulations. These have their shortcomings. Thus, this paper develops an analytical procedure that simultaneously deals with level of service, socioeconomic and spatial factors to determine the relative role each plays in determining travel behavior. The procedure is applied to data from the Toronto region to illustrate its use. 相似文献
Mean concentrations of the anthropogenic radioactive oceanographic tracers 99Tc, 90Sr and 137Cs have been measured as 0.005, 1.6 and 2.5 Bq m−3 in oceanic Northeast Atlantic surface water, east and northeast of the Azores, in 1992. This is, apparently, the first published value for fallout “background” 99Tc in oceanic Atlantic water.Comparison with older data indicates an observed half life for 90Sr and 137Cs in the northeast Atlantic surface water of 20 yr corresponding to a mean residence time of 80–100 yr for the stable elements.The observed 99Tc/90Sr ratio (3 × 10−3) in the Azores samples is 10 times higher than the theoretical fission yield decay corrected to 1992. This is in agreement with published data on rain water samples and may be characteristic for 1960's global fallout. Furthermore, the measured 137Cs/90Sr ratio is not significantly different from that observed for global fallout. There do not appear to be any additional significant sources of artificial radionuclides in this region. 相似文献
The purpose of this paper is to determine optimal shipping strategies (i.e. routes and shipment sizes) on freight networks by analyzing trade-offs between transportation, inventory, and production set-up costs. Networks involving direct shipping, shipping via a consolidation terminal, and a combination of terminal and direct shipping are considered. This paper makes three main contributions. First, an understanding is provided of the interface between transportation and production set-up costs, and of how these costs both affect inventory. Second, conditions are identified that indicate when networks involving direct shipments between many origins and destinations can be analyzed on a link-by-link basis. Finally, a simple optimization method is developed that simultaneously determines optimal routes and shipment sizes for networks with a consolidation terminal and concave cost functions. This method decomposes the network into separate sub-networks, and determines the optimum analytically without the need for mathematical programming techniques. 相似文献
This paper develops a mathematical model that is based on the absorbing Markov chain approach to describe taxi movements, taking into account the stochastic searching processes of taxis in a network. The local searching behavior of taxis is specified by a logit form, and the O‐D demand of passengers is estimated as a logit model with a choice of taxi meeting point. The relationship between customer and taxi waiting times is modeled by a double‐ended queuing system. The problem is solved with a set of non‐linear equations, and some interesting results are presented. The research provides a novel and potentially useful formulation for describing the urban taxi services in a network. 相似文献
Weldability problems in jack-up rigs arise principally in leg construction where particularly high-strength steels (690 N mm−2 yield) are used for chords and racks. Attainment of mechanical properties is not usually difficult, although procedural trials are advisable.
Of potential fabrication problems, hydrogen cracking (heat-affected zones or weld metal) is of greatest concern, and consideration of solidification cracking is advisable. Lamellar tearing is not generally a problem with modern steels, and the risk of stress-relief cracking will be confined to the limited number of joints which can be heat-treated.
Fatigue cracking is probably the major cause of service failure of jack-up rigs, and the use of high-strength steels, which permits higher static stress limits, can exacerbate this problem. Hydrogen-induced stress corrosion can also occur, either due to cathodic polarisation or corrosion, particularly in the presence of H2S in foul sea-water. For this reason weld hardness limits need to be maintained. 相似文献
In this paper a conventional low volume maritime terminal equipped with straddle carriers is compared against an advanced automatic stacking crane/automatic guided vehicle alternative. For both configurations a convenient layout was designed, a reasonable level of service (common for both terminals) was adopted, and the required amount of equipment was determined using computer simulation. The results indicate that the total cost per container and the area requirements do not differ considerably between the two configurations although there exist differences in the investment capital and the personnel required. 相似文献