日本汽车厂商今夏面临紧要关头

不用在意美国之外的最新汽车销售数据；在美国市场，日本汽车生产商正开始获得领先于美国同行的一些重大优势。     

Transport decision-makers speak: the Seaport Development in the European Communities Research Project —Part II

This paper, in two parts, reports on the Seaport Development in the European Communities Research Project wherein forty interviews with decision-makers were held in European seaports, and another forty were held with shipowning organizations. This part of the paper reports on analysis of the open-ended tape-recorded responses of the interviewees to six separate sets of propositions they were shown. The first major conclusion is that decision-makers in the ports and shipping industries have a great deal to offer in helping to shape future EC policies about seaports. The second is that these decision-makers on the whole agree with students of the subject, but outside the industries, that a step-by-step approach is possible towards a Common Seaports Policy. Indeed, without prompting, some respondents even confirmed a previously published suggestion for the first stage of this process—the necessity for an agreed standard basis for ports' accounts. It is believed that a small secretariat within the Brussels Commission could weld representatives of the industries into a working group which could make real progress by consulting their colleagues through interviews similar to those successfully conducted for this project.     

Privatisation and the quality of rail services

Using the concept of generalised costs to reflect quality in rail services, we consider the level of provision and quality of these services in the various forms they may take in a privatised environment within a model where we assume linear and separable demand and cost functions for analytical simplicity. Using the Pareto-efficient output and quality outcomes under a fully integrated system for reference (as well as those for a fully integrated profit-maximising monopolist) we show that if either bilateral monopoly or complementary monopoly emerge as a market structure the output of train services and their quality will generally fall. In the case of the emergence of both bilateral monopoly and complementary monopoly our analysis again suggests poor welfare outcomes. The implication that can be drawn from our analysis is that a regulator of a privatised rail system faces some severe problems if she is to attain the appropriate welfare targets.     

A regression model for bus running times in suburban areas of winnipeg

To plan new bus routes in suburban areas, expected bus running times on these routes are needed. Using most readily available relevant variables, a regression model is developed for estimating bus running times. The model is conceptually reasonable and it was tested using data other than that used for estimation.     

A utility-theory analysis of automobile speed under uncertainty of enforcement

Highway automobile speed and uncertain enforcement of the speed limit are introduced into a standard household utility model having time and income constraints. Due to uncertainty, expected utility is maximized to obtain the optimal speed (in excess of the speed limit). The optimal amounts of all other commodities and travel are also obtained. The key feature of the model is the risk attitude of the driver and the effect on optimal speed of such attitude. A related feature is the effect of risk attitude on the amount of speed self-insurance. An important finding is that the risk avert (seeking, neutral) driver charges himself an insurance premium that is larger than (smaller than, equal to) what is actuarially sufficient. The relationship between speed, risk attitude, and efficient cost of automobile travel is developed and implications are explored. A parametric analysis is conducted to establish the effect on optimal speed (and other variables) of changes in such policy instruments as the price of gasoline, the probability of being caught exceeding the speed limit, the unit speed fine, and the speed limit. Policy implications of the theoretical results are part of the conclusions.     

A model of stoppings on urban bus routes

The amount of time required to pick up and discharge passengers is an important issue in the planning and modeling of urban bus systems. Several past studies have employed models of this component of bus travel time which are based, in part, on a model of the number of stoppings the bus makes to pick up or discharge passengers. Most past versions of this model have assumed that expected demand does not vary from stop to stop or from trip to trip, but that the number of passengers demanding service at any given stop during any given trip follows a Poisson distribution. An alternative model is derived, based on the assumption that expected demand varies among stops and times of day but is fixed from day to day at any given stop and time of day. Boarding and alighting survey data are used to verify that the “average-demand” Poisson model consistently overestimates the number of stoppings and to calibrate an approximate version of the alternative model. A stop-spacing optimization model previously developed by Kikuchi and Vuchic is reevaluated using the alternative stopping model in place of the average demand model used in the original version. The results are found to be considerably different, thus indicating that transit route optimization models are sensitive to the way in which stopping processes are modeled.     

Arctic tanker risk analysis project

This paper summarizes the interim Phase II results of the Arctic Tanker Risk Analysis Project, which examined the risk of oil shipment by tankers in the Canadian Arctic. The objectives were to identify the hazards most likely to produce an oil spill on the MV Arctic, and to institute measures to reduce that risk. Phase I indicated that a high potential exists for a shipping accident at the terminals, the St. Lawrence River and in the High Arctic. However, environmental sensitivity was shown to be greatest along the coastal zone of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and the St. Lawrence River. Phase II involved further examination of environmental sensitivity and the task of ice navigation. These results resulted in a revised risk profile. Three spill scenarios were then designed to estimate clean-up costs and other economic impacts. A cost effectiveness analysis was conducted which compared spill costs to risk mitigation. As the project enters Phase III, the scope has widened to include all product tankers operating in the Arctic. A new Canadian Standards Association Risk Management Standard Q850 is being implemented with the objective of providing prototype tanker Bridge Risk Management System software.     

The compressive behavior of advanced double hull structure—A review of current research at David Taylor

It has long been recognized that the compressive behavior of primary ship structural components plays a vital role in the design of surface ship hulls. This is equally as true for the new advanced double hull concept as it is for the more conventional surface ship configurations. What is different, however, is the nature of the structural mechanics phenomena which must be addressed due to the double hull's more radical departure from conventional design and construction practices. With increasing interest and attention being shown in this new concept, the David Taylor Model Basin has over the past few years initiated a number of research efforts which have and are continuing to address various aspects of the behavior of double hulls and their components to primary compressive loadings. These studies have as their ultimate goal the development of practical, user oriented design methods for double hull structure and as such currently focus on more approximate, rather than mathematically rigorous, approaches to the various structural phenomena being considered. This paper is in essence a progress report on a selected number of these efforts and describes the results achieved to date as well as the ongoing efforts and those planned for the future. This report focuses primarily on three recent studies: (1) a preliminary look at the relative significance of local versus general instability failure of double hull structure; (2) small scale experimental analysis of double hull sections using rigid vinyl modelling; and (3) the application of beam-on-elastic-foundation analysis methods for high aspect stiffened plates as it relates to double hull structure. In addition to these major topics, the report also includes a brief discussion of other ongoing and planned efforts relevant to the advanced double hull.     

A spatial equilibrium port cargo projection model

A mathematical spatial programming model developed to analyse changes in international and hinterland commodity flows through a regional port system is applied to wheat shipments through the U.S. Pacific Northwest port system. Two scenarios, one focusing on a Chinese quarantine on wheat shipments from the Pacific Northwest and the other on possible closure of barge transportation on the Columbia-Snake River, illustrate the capacity of the model to evaluate the impacts of international and hinterland shocks on the regional port system.     

Impact of phytoplankton community size on a linked global ocean optical and ecosystem model

We isolated the effect phytoplankton cell size has on varying remote sensing reflectance spectra (R_rs(λ)) in the presence of optically active constituents by using optical and radiative transfer models linked in an offline diagnostic calculation to a global biogeochemical/ecosystem/circulation model with explicit phytoplankton size classes. Two case studies were carried out, each with several scenarios to isolate the effects of chlorophyll concentration, phytoplankton cell size, and size-varying phytoplankton absorption on R_rs(λ). The goal of the study was to determine the relative contribution of phytoplankton cell size and chlorophyll to overall R_rs(λ) and to understand where a standard band ratio algorithm (OC4) may under/overestimate chlorophyll due to R_rs(λ) being significantly affected by phytoplankton size. Phytoplankton cell size was found to contribute secondarily to R_rs(λ) variability and to amplify or dampen the seasonal cycle in R_rs(λ), driven by chlorophyll. Size and chlorophyll were found to change in phase at low to mid-latitudes, but were anti-correlated or poorly correlated at high latitudes. Phytoplankton size effects increased model calculated R_rs(443) in the subtropical ocean during local spring through early fall months in both hemispheres and decreased R_rs(443) in the Northern Hemisphere high latitude regions during local summer to fall months. This study attempts to tease apart when/where variability about the OC4 relationship may be associated with cell size variability. The OC4 algorithm may underestimate [Chl] when the fraction of microplankton is elevated, which occurs in the model simulations during local spring/summer months at high latitudes in both hemispheres.