Classification issues in the analysis of complex travel behavior

Researchers have devoted considerable effort to identifying homogeneous travel-behavior groups, each of which also has distinctive sociodemographic characteristics. Interest in these efforts has been fueled by both theoretical and applied concerns. From a theoretical perspective, if such behaviorally and sociodemographically homogeneous groups cari be identified, we would have an improved understanding of the determinants of travel. From an applied perspective, because spatial choice models assume behavioral homogeneity within each sociodemographically defined subgroup, one would like to be able to identify groups that are homogeneous with respect to both behavior and sociodemographics. Most previous efforts to define such groups have classified individuals on the basis of one-day travel records. In this paper we review these efforts, note the problems inherent in using one-day travel records for identifying homogeneous travel-behavior groups, and use standard grouping procedures to classify individuals on the basis of behavior observed over a longer time period (five weeks). Using multi-day travel data means that the travel measures employed in classifying individuals are different from and more complex than those used with one-day data. We identify five travel-behavior groups, each of which has distinctive socio-demographic characteristics. Considerable intra-group variability remains, however, even though the groups are classified on the basis of longer-term behavior. The paper concludes with an examination of the implications of day-to-day variability in individual travel for classification procedures.     

Short sea shipping: a Canadian perspective

Short sea shipping has begun to receive attention from governments worldwide, as they seek to reduce traffic congestion and greenhouse gases. Despite a long coastline and its interest in international maritime affairs, the Canadian government had, until 2003, placed greater emphasis on resolving the issues of other transport modes. In July 2003, Canada and the United States signed a Memorandum of Cooperation on Sharing Short Sea Shipping Information and Experience. Subsequently, the federal government embarked on an assessment of short sea shipping through a series of workshops. This paper explores the key issues with respect to further development of short sea shipping from a Canadian perspective. It examines the critical limitations and impediments to further growth of short sea services in Canada and trans-border trade with the USA, and identifies a number of questions Canadian policymakers need to answer.     

日本汽车厂商今夏面临紧要关头

不用在意美国之外的最新汽车销售数据；在美国市场，日本汽车生产商正开始获得领先于美国同行的一些重大优势。     

Transport decision-makers speak: the Seaport Development in the European Communities Research Project —Part II

This paper, in two parts, reports on the Seaport Development in the European Communities Research Project wherein forty interviews with decision-makers were held in European seaports, and another forty were held with shipowning organizations. This part of the paper reports on analysis of the open-ended tape-recorded responses of the interviewees to six separate sets of propositions they were shown. The first major conclusion is that decision-makers in the ports and shipping industries have a great deal to offer in helping to shape future EC policies about seaports. The second is that these decision-makers on the whole agree with students of the subject, but outside the industries, that a step-by-step approach is possible towards a Common Seaports Policy. Indeed, without prompting, some respondents even confirmed a previously published suggestion for the first stage of this process—the necessity for an agreed standard basis for ports' accounts. It is believed that a small secretariat within the Brussels Commission could weld representatives of the industries into a working group which could make real progress by consulting their colleagues through interviews similar to those successfully conducted for this project.     

Privatisation and the quality of rail services

Using the concept of generalised costs to reflect quality in rail services, we consider the level of provision and quality of these services in the various forms they may take in a privatised environment within a model where we assume linear and separable demand and cost functions for analytical simplicity. Using the Pareto-efficient output and quality outcomes under a fully integrated system for reference (as well as those for a fully integrated profit-maximising monopolist) we show that if either bilateral monopoly or complementary monopoly emerge as a market structure the output of train services and their quality will generally fall. In the case of the emergence of both bilateral monopoly and complementary monopoly our analysis again suggests poor welfare outcomes. The implication that can be drawn from our analysis is that a regulator of a privatised rail system faces some severe problems if she is to attain the appropriate welfare targets.     

A regression model for bus running times in suburban areas of winnipeg

To plan new bus routes in suburban areas, expected bus running times on these routes are needed. Using most readily available relevant variables, a regression model is developed for estimating bus running times. The model is conceptually reasonable and it was tested using data other than that used for estimation.     

A utility-theory analysis of automobile speed under uncertainty of enforcement

Highway automobile speed and uncertain enforcement of the speed limit are introduced into a standard household utility model having time and income constraints. Due to uncertainty, expected utility is maximized to obtain the optimal speed (in excess of the speed limit). The optimal amounts of all other commodities and travel are also obtained. The key feature of the model is the risk attitude of the driver and the effect on optimal speed of such attitude. A related feature is the effect of risk attitude on the amount of speed self-insurance. An important finding is that the risk avert (seeking, neutral) driver charges himself an insurance premium that is larger than (smaller than, equal to) what is actuarially sufficient. The relationship between speed, risk attitude, and efficient cost of automobile travel is developed and implications are explored. A parametric analysis is conducted to establish the effect on optimal speed (and other variables) of changes in such policy instruments as the price of gasoline, the probability of being caught exceeding the speed limit, the unit speed fine, and the speed limit. Policy implications of the theoretical results are part of the conclusions.     

A model of stoppings on urban bus routes

The amount of time required to pick up and discharge passengers is an important issue in the planning and modeling of urban bus systems. Several past studies have employed models of this component of bus travel time which are based, in part, on a model of the number of stoppings the bus makes to pick up or discharge passengers. Most past versions of this model have assumed that expected demand does not vary from stop to stop or from trip to trip, but that the number of passengers demanding service at any given stop during any given trip follows a Poisson distribution. An alternative model is derived, based on the assumption that expected demand varies among stops and times of day but is fixed from day to day at any given stop and time of day. Boarding and alighting survey data are used to verify that the “average-demand” Poisson model consistently overestimates the number of stoppings and to calibrate an approximate version of the alternative model. A stop-spacing optimization model previously developed by Kikuchi and Vuchic is reevaluated using the alternative stopping model in place of the average demand model used in the original version. The results are found to be considerably different, thus indicating that transit route optimization models are sensitive to the way in which stopping processes are modeled.