On the estimation of trip matrices in the case of missing and uncertain data

The problem of missing data in the base (calibration) year is of major importance when applying the gravity model in transportation planning, because base year data are used for calibration of the model. In this article, this problem is tackled by solving an optimization problem for the prediction year for values of the entropy level and the proportions of trips in a given stratification of the cells of the trip matrix estimated in the base year. The problem of uncertain data in the prediction year is handled by replacing equality constraints for the marginal totals in the prediction year by interval constraints. Computational results are given for trip data from the Linköping area.     

Innovation, capabilities and competitive advantage in Norwegian shipping

As a high-cost country, it is believed that Norway has to build its competitiveness in most industries on innovation and knowledge-intensive products. The shipping industry is no exception. It has to be innovative in order to prosper. This unison conclusion, which has been drawn in several research projects during the last 10-20 years, is probably also applicable for companies in other high cost countries. A major issue in this research is how the industry can develop and maintain innovativeness and international competitiveness. The aim of this paper is to discuss the conclusion drawn in previous research concerning how the shipping industry can be innovative. It concludes that shipping companies have to improve their skills and competencies in a stronger interplay between organizations within and without the maritime cluster. This may increase their total capability and innovativeness and create distinctive competitive advantages that are difficult to imitate.     

The gender perspective in maritime education and training

The aim of this article is to show if and how European maritime education and training institutions have met the increasing enrolment of women, and how shipping in general has reacted to gender equality. WMU has partly been the source for finding data related to studies in a multicultural and gender (minority) mixture of students and professors. In addition to a questionnaire to maritime education and training institutions, unstructured conversations with WMU students and professors have contributed to fact findings. Apparently, there is more to be done in order to have women compete on a level playing field in the sphere of shipping. Shipping is historically male dominated and conservative, so it is well understood that there are ropes to be untied. In this article, there are examples on how stakeholders in society have introduced policies on how to meet diversities. It is recommended that universities seriously pursue this trend. I wish to appeal to educational institutions to publish a university policy on the gender perspective and diversity management in general. The policy must be in writing in order for staff and students to understand and remember the content of the policy. This is an issue that should follow the quality assurance aims and goals and should be posted in a public place within the university’s premises for everybody to be reminded.     

Allision risk analysis of offshore petroleum installations on the Norwegian Continental Shelf—an empirical study of vessel traffic patterns

The Norwegian Petroleum Safety Authority (PSA) requires offshore petroleum operators on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) to perform risk assessments of impacts (allisions) between passing ships and offshore installations. These risk assessments provide a basis for defining the allision accidental load that the installation shall be designed for. Even though the risk of allision is small, the potential consequences can be catastrophic. In a worst-case scenario, an allision may result in the total loss of an installation. The ageing industry standard allision risk model, COLLIDE, calculates the risk of impacts between passing (non-field-related) ships and installations based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data. Both the COLLIDE risk model and a new Bayesian allision risk model currently under development are highly sensitive to variations in vessels’ passing distances, especially close proximity passings. Allision risk assessments are typically performed during the design and development phase of an installation, which means that historical AIS data are used “as is”, disregarding future changes to the traffic pattern when the new installation is placed on a location. This article presents an empirical study of one of the most important variables used to calculate the risk of allision from passing vessels, namely passing distance. The study shows that merchant vessels alter course to achieve a safe passing distance to new surface offshore petroleum installations. This indicates that the results of current allision risk assessments are overly conservative.