Some properties of international maritime statistics

This paper tests two fundamental hypotheses concerning international maritime statistics. The first one deals with the question of stationary of the maritime market statistics. The second hypothesis tested is the assumption that the international maritime statistical time series are not distributed according to a normal of Guassian probability law, but rather belong to the same family of distributions with distinctly different critical parameters. Through well documented statistical methods, the paper concludes that the international freight rates observed on a day to day basis are generated by a random walk process. The paper finds that the shipping industry's conventioal wisdom is essentially correct. ‘Last done’ is as good a forecast of tomorrow's freight rate as any other generated by more sophisticated forecasting methods. Furthermore, freight rates and secondhand tonnage prices fluctuate closely together. The freight rates are generated by stochastic processes fully described by the Paretian family of distributions. The critical parameters of these distribution, the characteristic exponents, are such that the risk conscious ship operator can indeed reduce his exposure to risk by securing a correct set of freight rate contracts.     

Potential of Real-Time Cylinder Pressure Analysis by Using Field Programmable Gate Arrays

In this paper, a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) was used to implement a real-time cylinder pressure analysis. The goal of the project was to improve the accuracy of calculated heat release and center of combustion calculations to enhance the precision of engine control functions. Compared to today’s real-time pressure analysis systems, several additional physical effects were taken into account for this objective. The wall heat transfer was calculated based on the approach published by Hohenberg. A chemical equilibrium with six substances was assumed for the mixture composition and a real-time calculation method was developed. Furthermore, a two-zone model was adapted and implemented for this realtime analysis. The validation of the results and the rating of the improvement in precision were based on GT-SUITE simulation results as an offline reference tool. Compared to state-of-the-art analysis systems, it was possible to reduce the average error of the center of combustion position from 1.6° to 0.5° crank angle (CA) by taking the investigated effects into account. Moreover, it was possible to significantly reduce the time required for the calculation from one complete combustion cycle to 0.2°CA at an engine speed of 3,000 rpm by using a continuous calculation method on the FPGA. This led to an additional improvement of the ability to control the engine, especially under highly dynamic operation conditions.     

Regulating CO2 emissions of transportation in Europe: A CGE-analysis using market-based instruments

This paper analyzes the use of market-based emission regulation instruments to address the carbon dioxide emissions of transportation. Simulations with a static multi-region computable general equilibrium model show that including transportation into the European emission trading system is superior to a closed emission trading system for transportation or a tax-based approach. Furthermore, we show that exempting transportation from emission regulation is the most favorable approach in terms of welfare. This counterintuitive result is due to a large tax-interaction effect caused by high pre-existing fuel taxes in the transport sector.     

综合安全评价在船舶动力装置中的应用

综合安全评价（FSA）是一种在工程技术与工程运行管理中用于制定合理可行的规则和提供风险控制的综合性、结构化和系统性的分析方法，将FSA引入到船舶动力装置的安全评价中，是对船舶安全评价的一次尝试，按照综合安全评价的五个步骤对影响船舶动力装置安全的因素进行了分析评价。具体应用时，使用故障树分析法以拉缸故障为实例做了定性和定量分析，根据评价结果提出了相应的安全管理措施，为船舶轮机人员及管理人员提供参考。     

The economic impact study of maritime policy issues: application to the German case

Input-output analysis basically provides an estimation of a sector's economic impact by taking into account the indirect effects on all other sectors. For purposes of policy making, however, this may produce rather rigid and inaccurate results. This paper, therefore, introduces some extensions to the basic impact analysis. These extensions secure flexibility, completeness and accurateness of the outcomes. First, an accurate cost structure is determined in a bottom-up approach, i.e. by using data from a sample of representative companies. This allows for reliable outcomes and a flexible definition of sub-sectors. Secondly, the analysis is made in an intercountry context. Thirdly, the expenditure effects of generated income are determined by a macroeconomic module. Fourthly, company-level responses to alternative policy scenarios are investigated and translated into changing model parameters. These four basic elements are applied in a case study concerning the shipping sector of Germany. The scenarios are a continuation of the present policy, a laissez-faire policy, and two framework policies in which the government creates a favourable environment for shipping companies. For each scenario, the effects on value added, employment, tax revenues and expenditures are analysed and evaluated. This paper, thus, shows the relevance of accordingly amplified input-output analysis for policy purposes.     

A summary of findings from the first 25 Ballast Water Treatment Systems evaluated by GESAMP

As part of the preparations for entry into force of the Ballast Water Convention (2004), the International Maritime Organization has initiated a process to evaluate the safety and efficacy of potential technologies for disinfecting ballast water on board ships. Ballast Water Management Systems intended to remove potentially ‘harmful aquatic organisms’ are subjected to a review process, one aspect of which is aimed at ensuring safety by assessing the risks of the systemto the environment, human health (including the ships crew) as well as the safety of the ship. With 25 systems in the various stages of the evaluation process and some already approved, this paper takes a first look at the types of systems under development, especially their environmental characteristics and look for any emerging trends. Quite awide range of different technologies are being developed based on chemical, physicochemical and physical mechanisms. Of these, chlorination by electrolysis in-situ is the most common and indications are that such systems may become even more common.     

) and annual payments (a) is a follows:

Modern management techniques are slowly but surely being introduced aslo in shipping management. Large sections of the industry practises strategic management at various levels in the firm. This paper outlines a method for deciding chartering strategies in the international bulk shipping industry. A well known risk/return model is tailored to transportation contracts in the shipping industry. The model delineates a set of optimally defined transportation contracts that may serve as a basis for the shipowner's strategic decisions. The strategies and elements of strategies suggested by the model have historically been practised by a number of successful shipowners. An important conclusion of the paper is that no second best problems exists and hence movement towarts the optimal solution is advocated even if such a solution cannot or will not be reached. Additionally, the paper provides an organized way of crafting, analysing and applying chartering strategies where the outcomes can be clearly defined and analysed based on well known statistical concepts and theories.