Workshop 3A: Governance,contracting, ownership and competition issues in public transport: Looking up not down

Workshop 3A focussed on matters of institutional design that seem likely to improve public transport outcomes. It started by defining high level outcome goals, as measures of ultimate public transport success, and then identified the major societal issues that public transport systems can help to resolve. These issues were separately defined for Southern African and western settings. The importance of taking an integrated approach to transport, particularly land use/transport integration, was seen as fundamental to goal achievement. Workshop papers provided many and varied examples of this importance, ranging from PPPs for major public transport projects to system design issues and contracting out of services. The Workshop included detailed discussion on paratransit development in Southern Africa, where relationship management is proving to be critical, in-line with much previous Thredbo discussion about the important role of trusting partnerships. Parallels and contrasts were drawn with paratransit in western settings. Competition in passenger rail was also a focus, with some questioning of the benefits of franchising. Discussion concluded by proposing recommendations for policy and research and suggesting agenda items for future Thredbo Conferences.     

Workshop 6: The public agenda: What is working and what is missing

Workshop 6 topics covered social inclusion, the informal transport sector, transport in developing countries and sustainability. The strong connections and complimentary goals were noted, where solutions to social exclusion and greenhouse gas reduction can both be realised with good transport and urban planning. There is an opportunity for developing countries to avoid the transport mistakes in many developed countries, such as car dependence. This will involve the development of infrastructure that offers accessible public transport to the majority of people, providing resources to the informal transport system and integrating this with public transport. The workshop considered specific issues such as rural transport, new technology, car tolls to subsidise public transport, safety issues with informal transport and the failure to evaluate the longer-term impacts of many major transport infrastructure developments. Recommendations were made in relation to research and policy and future Thredbo topics.     

美国慈善事业的现状分析:一种比较视角

分析了当代美国慈善事业的现状，进而探讨慈善事业在促进社会发展中的重要功能，其中包括对社会福利的有益补充、体现人道关怀、弥补市场运行与政府管理功能的不足等；从运行机制的角度，探讨了美国慈善事业发展的机制及其不足。在此基础上，从比较的角度，探讨了中国在这方面借鉴美国经验的可能性。     

Social exclusion: What can public transport offer?

A new workshop on ‘Social exclusion: What can public transport offer?’ was introduced in the Thredbo 10 program. The workshop examined the concept of social exclusion in a transport context, looking briefly at the history and comprehensiveness of the term for social policy in transport. Other concepts, such as well-being and social capital, were determined to be also needed. While important research was reported to the workshop, it was clear that social exclusion was at an early stage of empirical development. Gaps were highlighted, particularly in evaluation and cost-benefit analysis. Examples of service systems designed to address social exclusion were presented at the workshop, revealing the need to better understand governance arrangements. The workshop developed recommendations for future research and policy, particularly emphasising the need to integrate social outcomes with economic and environmental transport policy at the strategic, tactical and operational levels. Finally, ideas for further exploration of social exclusion in Thredbo 11, were outlined.     

Road transport and climate change: Stepping off the greenhouse gas

Transport is Australia’s third largest and second fastest growing source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The road transport sector makes up 88% of total transport emissions and the projected emissions increase from 1990 to 2020 is 64%. Achieving prospective emission reduction targets will pose major challenges for the road transport sector. This paper investigates two targets for reducing Australian road transport greenhouse gas emissions, and what they might mean for the sector: emissions in 2020 being 20% below 2000 levels; and emissions in 2050 being 80% below 2000 levels. Six ways in which emissions might be reduced to achieve these targets are considered. The analysis suggests that major behavioural and technological changes will be required to deliver significant emission reductions, with very substantial reductions in vehicle emission intensity being absolutely vital to making major inroads in road transport GHG emissions.     

Risk and reward in public transport contracting

This paper synthesizes evidence from the workshop on risk and reward in public transport contracting. It broadens the usual risk/reward framework to encompass strategic/tactical level issues, identifying high level community goals as the ultimate risk/reward pay-off. The evolution of tactical level public transport planning is reviewed, noting considerable change in functional roles between purchaser and provider in some jurisdictions. No single “best” approach is evident but an emerging interest in relational contracting founded on trust is apparent. Risk allocation between purchaser and provider is considered, a key debate concerning the extent to which providers should be exposed to revenue risk.     

Outsourced probe data effectiveness on signalized arterials*

ABSTRACT

This paper presents results of an I-95 Corridor Coalition sponsored project to assess the ability of outsourced vehicle probe data to provide accurate travel time on signalized roadways for the purposes of real-time operations as well as performance measures. The quality of outsourced probe data on freeways has led many departments of transportation to consider such data for arterial performance monitoring. From April 2013 through June of 2014, the University of Maryland Center for Advanced Transportation Technology gathered travel times from several arterial corridors within the mid-Atlantic region using Bluetooth traffic monitoring (BTM) equipment, and compared these travel times with the data reported to the I95 Vehicle Probe Project (VPP) from an outsourced probe data vendor. The analysis consisted of several methodologies: (1) a traditional analysis that used precision and bias speed metrics; (2) a slowdown analysis that quantified the percentage of significant traffic disruptions accurately captured in the VPP data; (3) a sampled distribution method that uses overlay methods to enhance and analyze recurring congestion patterns. (4) Last, the BTM and VPP data from each 24-hour period of data collection were reviewed by the research team to assess the extent to which VPP captured the nature of the traffic flow. Based on the analysis, probe data is recommended only on arterial roadways with signal densities (measured in signals per mile) up to one, and it should be tested and used with caution for signal densities between one and two, and is not recommended when signal density exceeds two.     

Exploring stability and change in transport systems: combining Delphi and system dynamics approaches

Transport is a vast and complex socio-technical system, and despite a clear need to reduce dependence on fossil fuels due to undesirable environmental impacts, it is largely locked into business-as-usual. Systems approaches are a useful way to help make sense of multiple competing influences which may be simultaneously driving change and supporting the status quo. This paper applies qualitative system dynamics modelling to help interpret the results of a Delphi study into global transport transitions, involving 22 international experts in various aspects of transport. The main contribution of the paper is its exploration of the use of system dynamics (SD) modelling to interpret the Delphi findings. SD modelling was used to reveal and elucidate the causal arguments put forward by the expert panel about the factors driving business-as-usual, the factors creating barriers to more sustainable transport systems, and the drivers of change. The SD model is used to explore and expose the key causal patterns at play, and how these interact to both support and hinder change. The resulting model shows the complex, interdependent dynamics involved in supporting the status quo. Even at the relatively high level of analysis reported here, the model is useful in revealing interdependencies between parts of the system, where change in one part may well have knock-on effects elsewhere in the system. In particular the model reveals the strong reinforcing loops that act to minimise the impact of change drivers and thus retain the dominance of automobility. The result is a system that is highly dependent on the continued existence of key reinforcements such as policies that subsidise fossil fuels. From a methodological perspective, the outcomes of the Delphi study provided a rich source of qualitative material which was highly suitable for developing a system dynamics model.     

Workshop report - A successful contractual setting

Successful public transport service contracts can be judged against procedural and outcome criteria, located within an integrated strategic, tactical and operational level framework for planning and delivery. Clear goal setting at the strategic level sets the basis for supportive tactical system planning and for service delivery that meets goals. The workshop considers relevant success criteria and key matters that need to be resolved for their achievement. Market growth potential and the governmental attitude to supporting service growth are important issues shaping the contractual environment. The growing interest in negotiated performance-based contracts and the role of trust between the operator and the authority are also matters for particular attention.     

Investigating links between transport disadvantage, social exclusion and well-being in Melbourne - Updated results

This paper updates results of an international study aimed at quantifying the links between transport disadvantage (TD), social exclusion (SE) and well-being (WB) in Melbourne, Australia. The study extends knowledge associated with SE and transport by quantify social and behavioural implications of lack of public and private transport and the nature of the social WB benefits associated with improving services.Study aims and methodology are outlined. Recent findings covered relate to car ownership on the urban fringe, patterns of transport disadvantage, the analysis of time poverty related to transport disadvantage, measuring the economic value of additional mobility and use of a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to relate WB and SE to TD and a series of explanatory factors.Overall results suggest that those without a car on the urban fringe adjust well with their circumstances by living close to activity centres. They demonstrate sustainable choices, trading off budgets and home location to balance mobility and accessibility. Poorer households with high car ownership value mobility and cheaper more remote fringe dwellings but demonstrate numerous strategies to reduce high car costs which are acknowledged as a significant burden. Analysis identifies 4 key types of transport disadvantage including a ‘vulnerable/impaired’ group which should be of much greater concern for targeted policy than others due to poor scoring on SE and WB scales. The economic value of new mobility is also explored with results suggesting $AUD 20 per average new trip which is four times larger than conventional values for generated travel.Analysis has also suggested that transport disadvantage can relate to socially advantaged as well as socially disadvantaged groups through time poverty. This was found to be an important mitigating factor when relating TD to WB. A statistically reliable structural equation model is developed suggesting the SE-WB link is strong (−.87) with a modest link between TD-SE (.27).Areas for future research in the project are also summarised.