手机APP出行调查系统开发及其模型应用研究

出行调查是出行需求预测模型的重要的数据来源,而国内外近几年使用的调查方法费时费力、数据量不大且很多处于理论阶段无法应用到实际中.为了解决当前调查方法中存在的问题,设计了一套基于手机APP的出行调查系统,同时还探讨了将收集到的出行数据运用到交通规划模型中的问题.该系统在注册填写个人信息以及收集轨迹数据的基础上,利用当前定位技术无法准确获知居民室内位置的特点,以达到收集居民出行数据的目的.具体方法是计算一定时间内轨迹数据的定位精度和速度来判断该段时间居民是否停留,然后将识别出的停留点根据距离进行合并,居民出行结束后在合并后的停留点位置填写相应的出行信息.从在上海青浦区的居民调查中可知,此系统使用的停留点识别方法其识别精度达到96%,因此利用该方法能够客观地收集居民出行过程中活动的空间位置和时间信息,对提升出行预测模型的精度具有重要意义.     

Reducing CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> from cars in the European Union

The European Union (EU) recently adopted CO₂ emissions mandates for new passenger cars, requiring steady reductions to 95 gCO₂/km in 2021. We use a multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which includes a private transportation sector with an empirically-based parameterization of the relationship between income growth and demand for vehicle miles traveled. The model also includes representation of fleet turnover, and opportunities for fuel use and emissions abatement, including representation of electric vehicles. We analyze the impact of the mandates on oil demand, CO₂ emissions, and economic welfare, and compare the results to an emission trading scenario that achieves identical emissions reductions. We find that vehicle emission standards reduce CO₂ emissions from transportation by about 50 MtCO₂ and lower the oil expenditures by about €6 billion, but at a net added cost of €12 billion in 2020. Tightening CO₂ standards further after 2021 would cost the EU economy an additional €24–63 billion in 2025, compared with an emission trading system that achieves the same economy-wide CO₂ reduction. We offer a discussion of the design features for incorporating transport into the emission trading system.     

Stated preference modelling of intra-household decisions: Can you more easily approximate the preference space?

While the study of choices focuses primarily on the individual decision maker, there is growing interest in the examination of the choices made by groups. Much of the research into the choices of multiple decision makers has revealed that they differ significantly to those of individuals. In this study of household vehicle choice we similarly compare individual choices to group choices and support this finding. Consequently any research into choices that involve groups should acquire data from those groups. In this paper we show how this may be done via an interactive agency choice experiment which makes the individual preferences endogenous to the choice of the group. This method and many like it, however, involve significant time, incentive and administrative costs that often make such studies prohibitive. In this paper we also compare another class of model, minimum information group inference, which is designed to provide an overview of the likely group choice and while not having the specificity of detail as other methods, has the advantage of being much easier and cheaper to implement and is perhaps the only methodology that can be employed when it is not feasible for respondents to interact. We find that this method is a good approximation of group choice, mapping the preference space over which group choice is likely to be located.

     

Applying Public Participation Geographic Information Systems for Coastal Wading Bird Conservation

Coastal estuaries in the northern Gulf of Mexico are important habitat for wading birds, but are threatened by land use and ecological changes. Conservation has been demonstrated to be more effective when stakeholders are included in the decision-making process. Public Participation Geographic Information Systems (PPGIS) facilitates the inclusion of stakeholder preferences in the planning process by allowing a direct spatial comparison with other ecological data. In this study, we used a PPGIS survey of residents of two counties on Alabama’s Gulf Coast to identify wading bird conservation hotspots as identified by local residents. Additionally, we assessed the ability of general public respondents to accurately identify wading bird habitat, determined whether participants associated wading bird habitat with particular land cover types, and examined whether respondents identified areas with high wading bird species richness. We found that respondents could accurately identify suitable wading bird habitat on a map of the study area, but underrepresented riparian forest, which is an important habitat for many wading bird species. Additionally, participants tended to prioritize areas that support higher wading bird species richness. Thus, this study demonstrated how PPGIS can function as an important tool for incorporating both stakeholder management preferences and identifying knowledge gaps.     

Assessing the social costs of urban transport infrastructure options in low and middle income countries

ABSTRACT

This paper develops cost models for urban transport infrastructure options in situations where motorcycles and various forms of taxis are important modes of transport. The total social costs (TSCs) of conventional bus, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Monorail, Metro (Elevated Rail), car, motorcycle, Taxi and Uber are calculated for an urban corridor covering operator, user and external costs. Based on the parameters for a 7?km corridor in Hanoi, Vietnam, the results show the lowest average social cost (ASC) transport modes for different ranges of demand. Motorcycle might be the best option at low demand levels while conventional bus has advantages with low-medium demand. At medium demand levels, bus-based technologies and Monorail are competitive options while Metro, with a higher person capacity, is the best alternative at the highest demand levels. Compared to other modes, the ASCs of car and Taxi/Uber are greater because of high capital cost (related to vehicles) per passenger and low occupancy. Transport planners and decision makers in low and middle income countries (LMICs) can draw on the findings of this study. However, various limitations are identified and additional research is suggested.     

The growing gap in pedestrian and cyclist fatality rates between the United States and the United Kingdom,Germany, Denmark,and the Netherlands, 1990–2018

ABSTRACT

Using official national data for each country, this article calculates trends in walking and cycling fatalities per capita and per km in the USA, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark. From 1990 to 2018, pedestrian fatalities per capita fell by 23% in the USA vs. 66%–80% in the other countries; cyclist fatalities per capita fell by 22% in the USA vs. 55%–68% in the other countries. In 2018, pedestrian fatality rates per km in the USA were 5–10 times higher than in the other four countries; cyclist fatality rates per km in the USA were 4–7 times higher. The gap in walking and cycling fatality rates between the USA and the other countries increased over the entire 28-year period, but especially from 2010 to 2018. Over that 8-year period, per-capita fatality rates in the USA rose by 19% for pedestrians and 11% for cyclists; per-km fatality rates rose by 17% for pedestrians and 33% for cyclists. By comparison, fatality rates either fell or remained stable in the four European countries. We reviewed the relevant literature to identify factors that might help explain the much lower walking and cycling fatality rates in Europe compared to the USA. Possible explanatory factors include better walking and cycling infrastructure; lower urban speed limits; fewer vehicle km travelled; smaller and less powerful personal motor vehicles; and better traffic training, testing, and enforcement of traffic regulations. We recommend that the USA consider implementing an integrated package of mutually reinforcing safety measures such as those that have been successfully implemented in the Netherlands, Denmark, and Germany to reduce pedestrian and cyclist fatality rates.     

Some observed details of freeway traffic evolution

Certain details of traffic evolution were studied along a 2 km, homogenous freeway segment located upstream of a bottleneck. By comparing (transformed) cumulative curves constructed from the vehicle counts measured at neighboring loop detectors, it was found that waves propagated through queued traffic like a random walk with predictable statistical variation. There was no observed dependency of wave speed on flow. As such, these waves neither focused nor fanned outward and shocks arose only at the interfaces between free-flowing traffic and the back of queues. Although these traffic features may have long been suspected, actual observations of this kind have hitherto not been documented. Also of note, the shocks separating queued and unqueued traffic sometimes exhibited unexpectedly long transitions between these two states. Finally, some observations presented here corroborate earlier reports that, in unqueued traffic, vehicle velocity is insensitive to flows and that forward-moving changes in traffic states therefore travel with vehicles. Taken together, these findings suggest that certain rather simple models suffice for describing traffic on homogeneous freeway segments; brief discussion of this is offered in Section 5.