Modelling travellers’ risky choice in a revealed preference context: a comparison of EUT and non-EUT approaches

Recent work on risky choice modelling has sought to address the shortcomings of expected utility theory (EUT) by using non-expected utility theoretic (non-EUT) approaches. However, to date these approaches have been merely tested on stated choice data which is flexible and cheap. In this study, we empirically investigate the feasibility and validity of non-EUT approaches in a revealed preference (RP) context in which travel time distribution is extracted from observed historical travel time data, and subsequently present systematic comparisons between EUT, weighted utility theory, rank-dependent expected utility theory, and prospect theory (PT). The empirical evidence indicates that each non-EUT model has important behavioural insights to offer, moreover, EUT as well as non-EUT models can be applied to the RP context. However, the EUT and non-EUT model fits are generally similar with only PT providing a marginally improved model fit over EUT. The key findings presented in this study reinforce the importance of exploring non-EUT models within a revealed preference context before they can be applied reliably to modelling risky choices in the real world.     

Traffic noise abatement: How different pavements, vehicle speeds and traffic densities affect annoyance levels

In this paper, annoyance ratings from traffic noise recorded on cobblestones, dense asphalt, and open asphalt rubber pavements are assessed with regard to car speeds and traffic densities. It was found that cobblestones pavements are the most annoying; also while open asphalt rubber pavement imposes less annoyance than dense asphalt it is not significantly different. Higher car speeds always lead to greater annoyance, as does higher traffic densities. LAeq and LAmax correlate well with annoyance, but loudness is the best predictor. Roughness and sharpness exhibit inconsistent interactions.     

Optimal Threshold Policies for Robust Data Center Control

With the simultaneous rise of energy costs and demand for cloud computing, efficient control of data centers becomes crucial. In the data center control problem, one needs to plan at every time step how many servers to switch on or off in order to meet stochastic job arrivals while trying to minimize electricity consumption. This problem becomes particularly challenging when servers can be of various types and jobs from different classes can only be served by certain types of server, as it is often the case in real data centers. We model this problem as a robust Markov decision process (i.e., the transition function is not assumed to be known precisely). We give sufficient conditions (which seem to be reasonable and satisfied in practice) guaranteeing that an optimal threshold policy exists. This property can then be exploited in the design of an efficient solving method, which we provide. Finally, we present some experimental results demonstrating the practicability of our approach and compare with a previous related approach based on model predictive control.     

Performance of Two Types of Mooring Systems in the Heave Motion of a Two-body Floating Wave Energy Converter

Journal of Marine Science and Application - This work investigated the influence of two types of mooring systems on the hydrodynamic performance of a two-body floating wave energy converter (WEC)....     

A Simplified Model for the Effect of Weld-Induced Residual Stresses on the Axial Ultimate Strength of Stiffened Plates

The present work investigates the compressive axial ultimate strength of fillet-welded steel-plated ship structures subjected to uniaxial compression, in which the residual stresses in the welded plates are calculated by a thermo-elasto-plastic finite element analysis that is used to fit an idealized model of residual stress distribution. The numerical results of ultimate strength based on the simplified model of residual stress show good agreement with those of various methods including the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Common Structural Rules (CSR), leading to the conclusion that the simplified model can be effectively used to represent the distribution of residual stresses in steel-plated structures in a wide range of engineering applications. It is concluded that the widths of the tension zones in the welded plates have a quasi-linear behavior with respect to the plate slenderness. The effect of residual stress on the axial strength of the stiffened plate is analyzed and discussed.     

基于车激动力响应互相关指标的桥梁基础冲刷诊断方法

针对当前桥梁基础冲刷诊断和检测方法过程复杂、成本高且受环境影响大等问题,提出一种基于车激动力响应互相关指标的桥梁基础冲刷诊断方法。该方法通过桥墩和桥跨不同测点的纵向加速度响应自由衰减段信号的互相关分析,建立基础冲刷诊断指标体系,实现冲刷定位和均匀性诊断。首先,依据互相关函数幅值向量置信度判据指标进行基础冲刷初判;然后,通过响应互相关函数幅值向量因子变化率向量进行冲刷定位,再根据横桥向互相关函数幅值变化率向量诊断冲刷均匀性;并通过统计评估方法提高诊断精度;最后,结合1座连续梁桥算例进行多种冲刷工况的数值仿真分析,对所提方法的有效性和适用性进行验证。结果表明：该方法能够很好地实现基础冲刷的定位和均匀性诊断,指标具有较高敏感性;同时具有较好的抗噪性能,通过所提出诊断指标体系的综合使用可消除噪声对诊断结果的干扰。该方法具有诊断结果精度高、过程简便易行、无需进行复杂且误差较大的模态识别、允许试验测试参数和条件适量变化等优点,可嵌入常规桥梁荷载试验同步开展,具有很好的工程应用潜力和实用价值。     

Fuzzy-logic-based incident detection for signalized diamond interchanges

This paper documents a fuzzy-logic-based incident detection algorithm for signalized urban diamond interchanges. The model is capable of detecting lane-blocking incidents whose effects are manifested by patterns of deterioration in traffic conditions that require adjustments in signal control strategies. As a component of a real-time traffic adaptive control system for signalized diamond interchanges, the algorithm feeds an incident report (i.e., the time, location, and severity of the incident) to the system's optimization manager, which uses that information to determine the appropriate signal control strategy.The performance of the model was studied using a simulation of an actual diamond interchange. The simulation study evaluated the model's performance in terms of detection rate, false alarm rate, and mean time to detect. The model's performance was encouraging, and the fuzzy-logic-based approach is considered promising.     

Perceived risk of lock-in in the front-end phase of major transportation projects

Transportation - Lock-in is defined as the tendency to continue with an inefficient decision or project proposal. The front-end phase is critical to project success, yet most studies have focused...     

荷坳隧道四洞小净距段支护结构设计研究北大核心CSCD

多洞空间小净距隧道支护结构参数量化设计与安全性分析是当前设计中的一大难题。文章针对深圳机荷高速公路荷坳隧道四洞小净距段的设计,采用总安全系数法对四洞的开挖与支护模式、各洞的开挖顺序及支护参数进行了研究比较,并采用隧规荷载-结构法、增量法、地层-结构法对支护结构的安全系数进行了对比计算,得出以下结论:(1)提出了基于总安全系数法原理的多洞空间小净距隧道设计方法;(2)根据总安全系数法得出了荷坳隧道四洞小净距段应采用“先行洞二次衬砌完成后再开挖下一孔隧道”的开挖与支护模式,且应按洞1→洞2→洞3→洞4的开挖顺序施工;(3)隧规荷载-结构法、增量法、地层-结构法虽无法得出结构的总承载安全系数,但在一定程度上可以反应部分支护结构的安全性。     

Back-Calculation of Ground Stress Field and Rockburst Analysis for Wunvfeng Tunnel北大核心CSCD

Studying the in-situ stress distribution at a tunnel site is very important to determine surrounding rock characteristics, the engineering design and the construction scheme. By using the multiple linear regression method based on the least square algorithm, the initial geostress field is analyzed and the corresponding regression coefficients are obtained. The ground stress obtained from the proposed back analysis is reasonable and can meet the demands of the engineering applications. From the rockburst risk level distribution diagram, it is speculated that the Wunvfeng tunnel is in the high filed stress area. Field monitoring should be strengthened and emergency plans should be made to cope with the rockburst risks during the construction process. © 2018, Editorial Office of "Modern Tunnelling Technology". All right reserved.