Route choice and the value of commuting time: An economic model of dichotomous choice

This paper presents an economic model of generalized travel cost and provides an empirical study of the parameters of the cost function. The route-choice model that is estimated combines McFadden's theory of qualitative choice behavior with a function for the value of travel time in which total trip time and the income level are assumed to influence the marginal value of time. The empirical results indicate that, for a sample of commuters in the Chicago metropolitan area in 1972, the value of time is a positive function of total trip time, but is not a function of income.     

A human factors systems approach to examining oil spills in tankbarge operations: analysis and reappraisal of management policies

An important problem in the US maritime industry is the large number of oil spills that occur as a result of oil transfer operations involving tankbarges. Recently, the US Coast Guard initiated a new programme entitled Prevention Through People that represents a concerted effort towards preventing human errors leading to casualities and oil spills. The purpose of the study reported in this paper was to explore tankbarge oil transfer operations from the standpoint of regulatory, management, and operational perspectives in order to determine the likelihood that this new initiative will indeed result in a better understanding of the causal basis for human error in these operations and, more generally, in the maritime industry. The results of this novel study are discussed and summarized in terms of four broad classes of recommendations.     

A nested logit model of automobile holdings for one vehicle households

This paper presents a model of automobile choice by single vehicle households. This effort is distinguished from previous disaggregate automobile holdings models primarily by the use of the nested logit model rather than the more restrictive multinomial logit model. We present a 2-step estimation technique that provides consistent and asymptotically efficient parameter estimates, yet is tractable for very large choice sets. Using disaggregate data on 237 one-vehicle households we estimate the unknown parameters on an automobile choice model containing 785 individual makes, models and vintages of passenger vehicles.     

困扰全球的港口阻塞问题

港口阻塞问题没有立竿见影的解决方案 班轮业的问题在于没有立竿见影的解决方案,因为尽管码头工人可以加班加点,新的设备可以购置,码头管理体制可以调整,但上述举措对于解决港口阻塞问题的作用是有限的.     

Optimization of the Lateral Stability of Rail Vehicles

Summary The lateral stability of a rail vehicle is optimized using a combination of multibody dynamics, sequential quadratic programming, and a genetic algorithm. Several steps are taken to validate this integrated approach and to show its effectiveness. First, a hand-derived solution to a 17 degree of freedom linear rail vehicle model is compared to the simulation results from the A'GEM multibody dynamics software. Second, the calculation of the 'critical speed' (above which a rail vehicle response becomes unstable) using sequential quadratic programming is validated for a specific example. In the process, the existence of sharply-discontinuous 'cliffs' in the plots of critical speed versus suspension stiffnesses are identified. These cliffs, which are due to switching of the least-damped mode in the system, greatly hinder the application of gradient-based optimization methods. Two methods that do not require gradient information, a genetic algorithm and the Nelder-Mead's Simplex algorithm, are used to optimize the critical speed. The two algorithms and their results are compared. In recognition of the cliff phenomenon, the definition of critical speed is generalized to make it a more practical measure of lateral stability.     

Tanker forward freight agreements: the future for freight futures?

Since paper freight-hedging tools were introduced to counter volatile tanker freight rates, the hesitant uptake of tanker Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) has been attributed to traditional risk seeking propensities amongst tanker owners, naturally reluctant to hedge against risk. To test how far the well-documented generic determinants and incentives for corporate hedging could explain this hesitation in the tanker market, the attitudes of tanker owners and charterers towards freight hedging, risk and perceptions of FFAs, were surveyed. Although FFAs were widely viewed as an important development, some respondents were unaware of their function and a majority had not used them. The link between freight hedging activity and participants' risk aversion was not clear-cut, but with market liquidity critical to raising FFA usage improved technical education is essential to widespread acceptance     

New routes on old railways: increasing rail’s mode share within the constraints of the existing railway network

This paper describes an integrated methodology for identifying potential ‘quick wins’ for mode shift from road to passenger rail transport. Firstly, a procedure for analysing rail’s relative competitiveness in the market for passenger transport between large urban areas is developed and then applied to a UK case study. The purpose of such analysis is to allow the identification of flows where rail is currently relatively uncompetitive (in terms of journey time in particular) and to assess the reasons for this poor performance, so that the issues which suppress rail use may be addressed. In parallel, a framework, methodology and tool for the assessment of existing and potential capacity (trains, seats, TEUs, etc.) is developed for both passenger and freight traffic, to identify and address network constraints. An illustrative example of the use of these demand and capacity assessment tools is then presented, with the tools used to identify and evaluate flows where rail demand is suppressed by poor service quality and where spare capacity exists which would allow the passenger rail service to be improved without requiring significant investments in infrastructure. The effects of such improvements on demand are predicted, and the cost implications of operating such additional services are discussed. The analysis suggests that there may be significant potential for increasing rail’s mode share by providing additional inter-urban services where rail currently offers an inferior service.     

差异中的同一:中美文化价值观比较——基于一项对美国民众的大型国际调研

个人主义与集体主义是描述中关文化价值观差异的一对核心概念.通过运用8个涉及中国传统文化价值观的问题测量,发现多数美国民众把国家、家庭、父母放在优先于个人的位置,同时他们对以“集体主义”为核心的中国传统文化价值观给予了较高认同.由此证明个人主义并不是衡量和描述美国人文化价值观的唯一指针,而在国家公共外交中,如何抓住中美两国文化的“相似性”,“求同存异”是新时期中国国家形象国际传播的有效之路.