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81.
Valuation of travel time savings is a critical measure in transport infrastructure appraisal, traffic modelling and network performance. It has been recognised for some time that the travel times associated with repeated trips are subject to variation, and hence there is risk embedded in the treatment of expected travel time. In the context of the expected utility framework, we use a nonlinear probability weighting function to accommodate choice made under risk. Although the empirical findings suggest small differences between the value of expected travel time savings (VETTS) in the presence and absence of risk, the mean estimate does make a noticeable difference to time benefits when applied to real projects. By incorporating nonlinear probability weighting, our model reveals that the probabilities associated with specific travel times that are shown to respondents in the choice experiment are transformed, resulting in overweighting of outcomes with low probabilities and underweighting of outcomes with high probabilities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
82.
In Britain, capacity charges are levied on train operators to cover the costs imposed by increased reactionary delays – i.e. the delay that an already late train causes to a following train. These charges are based on the link between capacity utilisation and the level of reactionary delay. An established method for measuring capacity utilisation was adopted called The Capacity Utilisation Index (CUI). In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology based on the theory that the level of reactionary delay will be determined by the minimum gaps that exist between trains. We test this measure with a new data-set for the East Coast Main Line and show that it performs better than CUI. Finally, we comment on the implications of this finding for charging and for the construction of timetables. 相似文献
83.
Cycling is often promoted as a means of reducing urban congestion and improving health, social and environmental outcomes. However, the quantification of these potential benefits is not well established. This is due in part to practical difficulties in estimating cycling demand and a lack of sound methodologies to appraise cycling initiatives. In this paper we attempt to address this need by developing predictive models of cycle demand, relative to other transport modes, that capture not only the impacts of observed characteristics such as age and travel time but also the role of attitudes and perceptions. Using data from a stated preference survey, we estimate a hybrid choice model for cycle use that incorporates the role of attitudes towards cycling, perceptions of the image associated with cycling, and the stress arising from safety concerns. Model results indicate that the latent attitudes and perceptions explain an important part of the non-observable utility in a simple multinomial logit choice model. We also demonstrate policy analysis using the hybrid choice model, which allows comparisons of ‘hard’ policies such as the provision of parking facilities against ‘soft’ measures such as cycle promotion schemes. 相似文献
84.
John C.Humphrey 《汽车与配件》2006,(6):18-19
汽车产品的质量总是会受到巨大的关注。质量较差会导致财务成本的增加,这使得制造商把提升质量作为一项商业必要的手段。过去的数年中有无数方法和流程被用来减少浪费和消除缺陷 (比如6-Sigma法和TQM完全质量管理法)。我们并不缺少这样的衡量工具,来衡量因质量问题和返工而产生的负面经济效益。运用这些衡量工具能够理解质量对每辆车或者公司的盈利能力造成的影响,并且帮助公司取得显著的产品质 相似文献
85.
John A. Hall Christopher P. Weaver Jayantha Obeysekera Mark Crowell Radley M. Horton Robert E. Kopp 《Coastal management》2019,47(2):127-150
Sea-level rise (SLR) is not just a future trend; it is occurring now in most coastal regions across the globe. It thus impacts not only long-range planning in coastal environments, but also emergency preparedness. Its inevitability and irreversibility on long time scales, in addition to its spatial non-uniformity, uncertain magnitude and timing, and capacity to drive non-stationarity in coastal flooding on planning and engineering timescales, create unique challenges for coastal risk-management decision processes. This review assesses past United States federal efforts to synthesize evolving SLR science in support of coastal risk management. In particular, it outlines the: (1) evolution in global SLR scenarios to those using a risk-based perspective that also considers low-probability but high-consequence outcomes, (2) regionalization of the global scenarios, and (3) use of probabilistic approaches. It also describes efforts to further contextualize regional scenarios by combining local mean sea-level changes with extreme water level projections. Finally, it offers perspectives on key issues relevant to the future uptake, interpretation, and application of sea-level change scenarios in decision-making. These perspectives have utility for efforts to craft standards and guidance for preparedness and resilience measures to reduce the risk of coastal flooding and other impacts related to SLR. 相似文献
86.
Burton St. John III 《Coastal management》2019,47(2):151-168
This study focuses on adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) in the specific context of the Hampton Roads region of southeastern coastal Virginia. It analyzes the perspectives of stakeholders who are experts in and have experience with SLR to develop an informed understanding of the region’s ability to address SLR and its readiness to pursue adaptation using a whole-of-community approach. A survey of the expert and experienced reveals (1) what they prioritized as the top three most challenging phases of regional adaptation and (2) what issues within those priority areas were the most pressing. Our findings point to the importance of meso- and micro-level boundary spanning across organizations and the whole of the community to ensure that multiple organizations and individuals in a region can be engaged in adaptation. Finally, this work briefly discusses how boundary-spanning approaches can provide a region a pathway toward overcoming barriers to effective climate-related adaptation. 相似文献
87.
In many urban centers the demand for parking increases sharply before Christmas mainly due to shopping activity — causing parking congestion. One way to ameliorate such congestion is by disseminating parking information. Informed drivers may divert to relatively under-utilized parking facilities relieving the pressure on congested facilities. The City of Nottingham in England tested a real-time parking information system designed to alleviate congestion in the City Center parking facilities. Real-time information was disseminated through the radio, while historical information regarding parking locations was disseminated through newspaper advertisements and leaflets. The objective of this study is to assess impacts of the parking information system on travelers' knowledge and decisions.Survey research was used to understand traveler response. Respondents' levels of knowledge regarding car parks were analyzed by developing Poisson regression models. Drivers were more likely to have greater knowledge of city center car parks if they used several information sources (radio broadcasts, newspaper advertisements or leaflets and word-of-mouth), were active seekers of parking information, and searched for parking rather than going directly to a parking facility. In addition, the study of behavior showed that drivers were more inclined to use the relatively under-utilized Park-and-Ride facilities instead of the city center car parks if they received parking information from Newspaper advertisements/leaflets. Overall, the parking information service in Nottingham was effective; it seems reasonable to establish such information dissemination and monitoring systems at parking facilities in other urban areas. Furthermore, to support informed travel and activity participation decisions, parking information should be integrated with traffic and transit information. 相似文献
88.
89.
QingyinZheng BelindaSHarris PatriciaFWard-Bailey HepingYu RoderickTBronson MurielTDavisson KennethRJohnson 《西安交通大学学报(医学版)》2004,25(3):209-212,260
目的 定位小鼠致聋基因 ,识别决定其性状的有关突变 ,为人类耳聋基因研究提供动物模型。方法 利用全基因组扫描来定位名为hml可致小鼠听力丧失突变基因。结果 ①hml基因定位在小鼠 10号染色体上 ,距中心粒约4 3cM处。根据已知的鼠 人同源同线性特点 ,提示人的同源基因位于 12 q2 2 -q2 4 ;②获得了 2 5个多态性微卫星标记 ,通过高分辨的小鼠图谱将 3个已知人类基因进行了正确排列 ,并将hml侯选基因限定在一个 5 0 0kb的区域内。 相似文献
90.
JohnBack 《交通运输工程与信息学报》2004,2(2):14-30,40
本文给出了一个简要的交通战略规划、总体规划和操作规划的描述。战略规划必须发生在政策容许范围内。就城市交通而言,交通的可持速发展非常重要,本文给出了来自悉尼的一些例子。通过2000年悉尼奥林匹克运动会的案例研究解释了交通的需求分析。本文还为北京奥林匹克运动会的交通战略规划进程提出了建议。 相似文献