Resolving the impact of short-term variations in physical processes impacting on the spawning environment of eastern Baltic cod: application of a 3-D hydrodynamic model

Variations in oxygen conditions below the permanent halocline influence the ecosystem of the Baltic Sea through a number of mechanisms. In this study, we examine the effects of physical forcing on variations in the volume of deep oxygenated water suitable for reproductive success of central Baltic cod. Recent research has identified the importance of inflows of saline and oxygenated North Sea water into the Baltic Sea for the recruitment of Baltic cod. However, other processes have been suggested to modify this reproduction volume including variations in timing and volume of terrestrial runoff, variability of the solubility of oxygen due to variations in sea surface temperature as well as the influence of variations in wind stress. In order to examine the latter three mechanisms, we have performed simulations utilizing the Kiel Baltic Sea model for a period of a weak to moderate inflow of North Sea water into the Baltic, modifying wind stress, freshwater runoff and thermal inputs. The model is started from three-dimensional fields of temperature, salinity and oxygen obtained from a previous model run and forced by realistic atmospheric conditions. Results of this realistic reference run were compared to runs with modified meteorological forcing conditions and river runoff.From these simulations, it is apparent that processes other than major Baltic inflows have the potential to alter the reproduction volume of Baltic cod. Low near-surface air temperatures in the North Sea, the Skagerrak/Kattegat area and in the western Baltic influence the water mass properties (high oxygen solubility). Eastward oriented transports of these well-oxygenated highly saline water masses may have a significant positive impact on the Baltic cod reproduction volume in the Bornholm Basin.Finally, we analysed how large scale and local atmospheric forcing conditions are related to the identified major processes affecting the reproduction volume.     

Globalization of logistics management: present status and prospects

This paper presents an overview of the globalization process and its implications for international maritime distribution. Globalization is an imprecise term used to designate a way of looking at the world. It has no generally accepted definition; different commentators emphasize different aspects according to their individual predilections. Yet most are agreed that it represents a further stage in the evolution of international relations and, in particular, international business. Globalization is a break with the past, challenging accepted modes of thought and their translation into business practice. It is a post-modern phenomenon broadly characterized by, amongst other things, co-operation rather than competition, by flexible accumulation rather than centralized mass production, and by the compression of space and time. Networks, both conceptual and physical, play a key role in the globalization process by defining the relationships between individual elements such as producers, retailers, consumers etc and the flows of information and materials that pass among them. Hence ships, transportation and logistics are themselves also central to the process. This paper describes the process of globalization and goes on to consider the implications of the supply chain approach to international logistics and distribution for traditional maritime industry.     

Design and development of a stated choice experiment for interdependent agents: accounting for interactions between buyers and sellers of urban freight services

Stated choice experiments have proven to be a powerful tool in eliciting preferences across a broad range of choice settings. This paper outlines the elements of a group-based experiment designed for interdependent urban freight stakeholders, along with the procedure to administer the questionnaire sequentially. The focus is on the design of a computer-assisted personal survey instrument and the value in disseminating the details of a new approach to design and collect stated choice data for interacting agents. The paper also discusses how to specify a reference alternative, and then how to recruit appropriate real-market or representative decision-making group members to participate in a subsequent phase of the survey, which incorporates the reference alternative and contextual information from an initial phase. The empirical strategy, set out in some detail, provides a new framework within which to understand more fully the role that specific attributes, such as variable user charges, influencing freight distribution chains might play, and who in the supply chain is affected by specific attributes in terms of willingness to pay for the gains in distribution efficiency.

Urban transport in Germany: providing feasible alternatives to the car

With the second highest level of car ownership in the world, and the third highest population density in Europe, Germany has adopted a range of policies to balance the many private benefits of car use with its serious social and environmental problems. In order to ‘tame’ the car, most German cities have implemented a twofold strategy of expanding and improving pedestrian, bicycling and public transport alternatives simultaneously with restricting car use and making it more expensive. That has increased political acceptability since the car‐restrictive measures are not perceived as mere punishment of car drivers. The results of this coordinated urban transport strategy have been impressive. Germany, as a whole, has managed to increase public transport use and to stabilize the car share of modal split. Some cities, of course, have been more successful than others, and this paper examines three of the most successful cities: Münster, Freiburg and Munich. In each of the cities, the percentage of travel by bicycling, walking and public transport has been raised over the past 20 years, while the car's share of modal split has fallen. This article documents the range of policies used to restrict car use, both in Germany as a whole, and in the three case‐study cities in particular. The key to success is found to be mutually reinforcing transport and land‐use policies. It is the combination of a whole set of coordinated policies that explains the dramatic success in changing travel behavior.     

Vehicle automation and freeway ‘pipeline’ capacity in the context of legal standards of care

Transportation - The study evaluates, in the context of freeway segments, the interaction between automated cars’ kinematic capabilities and the standard legal requirement for the operator of...     

Where do cyclists ride? A route choice model developed with revealed preference GPS data

To better understand bicyclists’ preferences for facility types, GPS units were used to observe the behavior of 164 cyclists in Portland, Oregon, USA for several days each. Trip purpose and several other trip-level variables recorded by the cyclists, and the resulting trips were coded to a highly detailed bicycle network. The authors used the 1449 non-exercise, utilitarian trips to estimate a bicycle route choice model. The model used a choice set generation algorithm based on multiple permutations of path attributes and was formulated to account for overlapping route alternatives. The findings suggest that cyclists are sensitive to the effects of distance, turn frequency, slope, intersection control (e.g. presence or absence of traffic signals), and traffic volumes. In addition, cyclists appear to place relatively high value on off-street bike paths, enhanced neighborhood bikeways with traffic calming features (aka “bicycle boulevards”), and bridge facilities. Bike lanes more or less exactly offset the negative effects of adjacent traffic, but were no more or less attractive than a basic low traffic volume street. Finally, route preferences differ between commute and other utilitarian trips; cyclists were more sensitive to distance and less sensitive to other infrastructure characteristics for commute trips.     

A GIS‐based traffic analysis zone design: technique

The main purpose of this paper is to develop an efficient method to design traffic analysis zones (TAZs), which is necessary for implementing a planning process with Geographic Information System (GIS) for Transportation (GIS‐T), using statistical spatial data analyses and GIS technology. The major roles of GIS in this method are: (1) to produce basic spatial units (BSUs) with topological data structure; (2) to integrate various procedures during the TAZ generation including computer program routines; and (3) to visualize the output of each TAZ generation. One of the most significant reasons for obtaining well‐defined TAZs is the fact that they are defined at the outset of transportation demand modeling, used from trip generation to trip assignment, and will ultimately affect transportation policy decisions.

Toward obtaining well‐defined TAZs, this paper concentrates on two important constraints: homogeneity and contiguity. Iterative partitioning technique is adopted to promote the optimum homogeneity of generated TAZs, while a contiguity checking algorithm is developed to ensure contiguous TAZs are generated by the iterative partitioning technique.     

Built environment and pedestrian behavior at rail rapid transit stations in Bangkok

Urbanization and demands for mobility have spurred the development of mass rapid transit infrastructure in industrializing Asia. Differences between the character of pre-existing urban structure in these localities and worldwide precedents suggest a need for studies examining how new rapid transit systems function locally. This study of Bangkok’s elevated and underground rail systems identifies relationships between the built environment and pedestrian behavior surrounding stations. Based on details of 1,520 pedestrian egress trips from three elevated and three underground stations in 2006, multiple regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed that types of pedestrian destinations, reflecting land uses, were related to length of walking egress trips. Trips to shopping centers and office buildings were longer, while trips to eating places were shorter. The most common type of pedestrian trip recorded was to another vehicle, and trips to automobile taxis and motorcycle taxis figured prominently. Policy implications of the findings are considered.     

Workshop report - System development

The workshop considered system development as a key element of improving the performance of public transport. The main theme was the governance of decision making, design and development of public transport projects. A first main finding is that governance should be improved to keep focus on the original values for which the projects are started. Many projects lose sight of their original aims through the long and often problematic process from inception to operation. A second main finding is that the technological choice, mainly between rubber on tarmac and steel on rails, can be postponed, as both technologies start to overlap in their capacities. A stronger focus on functional needs in the earlier phases of the projects could help. Finally, as the different technologies provide similar options and can be used interchangeably, communicating the service they provide in other ways then through vehicle and infrastructure technology becomes more important.     

临床致病性不动杆菌的分子生物学鉴定

目的对临床致病性不动杆菌进行种属鉴定,并比较3种方法(44℃生长试验、特异性引物PCR扩增和16SrRNA测序)对鲍曼不动杆菌鉴定的特异性、准确性及应用价值。方法收集临床致病不动杆菌56株,首先接种在胰蛋白胨大豆肉汤中44℃进行培养,观察是否可以生长;其次,提取56株不动杆菌基因组DNA,用两组不同的特异性引物进行PCR扩增鉴定;最后,用通用引物对56株不动杆菌的16SrRNA进行测序鉴定。结果 56株不动杆菌中有17株可在44℃生长。经特异性引物PCR扩增鉴定,发现8株鲍曼不动杆菌和3株13TU型不动杆菌均可在44℃中较早较快生长。金标准16SrRNA测序确定56株不动杆菌中含有9个种,其中鲍曼不动杆菌和13TU型不动杆菌的鉴定结果与特异性引物PCR扩增法相同。结论应用分子生物学方法鉴定鲍曼不动杆菌具有准确、高效且可重复性高的优点,尤其是特异性PCR扩增法,可作为较难诊断的鲍曼不动杆菌的首选鉴定方法。