Choosing Public Transport—Incorporating Richer Behavioural Elements in Modal Choice Models

The development of behaviourally richer representations of the role of well-established and increasingly important influences on modal choice, such as trip time reliability and accounting for risk attitude and process rules, has moved forward at a fast pace in the context of automobile travel. In the public transport setting, such contributions have, with rare exception, not been considered. In this paper, we discuss and empirically illustrate the merits of advanced modelling developments aimed at improving our understanding of public transport choice, namely the inclusion of reliability in extended expected utility theoretic forms, to recognize risk attitude and perceptual conditioning, the consideration of passenger crowding and its inclusion in linear additive models, and the role of multiple heuristics in representing attribute processing as a way of conditioning modal choice. We illustrate the mechanics of introducing these behaviourally appealing extensions using a modal choice data set collected in Sydney.     

Accommodating risk in the valuation of expected travel time savings

Valuation of travel time savings is a critical measure in transport infrastructure appraisal, traffic modelling and network performance. It has been recognised for some time that the travel times associated with repeated trips are subject to variation, and hence there is risk embedded in the treatment of expected travel time. In the context of the expected utility framework, we use a nonlinear probability weighting function to accommodate choice made under risk. Although the empirical findings suggest small differences between the value of expected travel time savings (VETTS) in the presence and absence of risk, the mean estimate does make a noticeable difference to time benefits when applied to real projects. By incorporating nonlinear probability weighting, our model reveals that the probabilities associated with specific travel times that are shown to respondents in the choice experiment are transformed, resulting in overweighting of outcomes with low probabilities and underweighting of outcomes with high probabilities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The case for space: the measurement of capacity utilisation,its relationship with reactionary delay and the calculation of the capacity charge for the British rail network

In Britain, capacity charges are levied on train operators to cover the costs imposed by increased reactionary delays – i.e. the delay that an already late train causes to a following train. These charges are based on the link between capacity utilisation and the level of reactionary delay. An established method for measuring capacity utilisation was adopted called The Capacity Utilisation Index (CUI). In this paper, we propose an alternative methodology based on the theory that the level of reactionary delay will be determined by the minimum gaps that exist between trains. We test this measure with a new data-set for the East Coast Main Line and show that it performs better than CUI. Finally, we comment on the implications of this finding for charging and for the construction of timetables.     

Exploring the role of individual attitudes and perceptions in predicting the demand for cycling: a hybrid choice modelling approach

Cycling is often promoted as a means of reducing urban congestion and improving health, social and environmental outcomes. However, the quantification of these potential benefits is not well established. This is due in part to practical difficulties in estimating cycling demand and a lack of sound methodologies to appraise cycling initiatives. In this paper we attempt to address this need by developing predictive models of cycle demand, relative to other transport modes, that capture not only the impacts of observed characteristics such as age and travel time but also the role of attitudes and perceptions. Using data from a stated preference survey, we estimate a hybrid choice model for cycle use that incorporates the role of attitudes towards cycling, perceptions of the image associated with cycling, and the stress arising from safety concerns. Model results indicate that the latent attitudes and perceptions explain an important part of the non-observable utility in a simple multinomial logit choice model. We also demonstrate policy analysis using the hybrid choice model, which allows comparisons of ‘hard’ policies such as the provision of parking facilities against ‘soft’ measures such as cycle promotion schemes.     

A probabilistic damage tolerance concept for welded joints Part 2: a supplement to the rule based S–N approach

The first part of this paper presented the required statistics and stochastic models for reliability analysis of the fatigue fracture of welded plate joints. This present Part 2 suggests a probabilistic damage tolerance supplement to the design S–N curves for welded joints. The goal is to provide the practising engineer with simple tools that predict the reliability against fatigue fracture during service life. The impact of the chosen fatigue design factors (FDF) and the uncertainty in the applied stresses is revealed. The effect of an in-service inspection programme is also predicted. The results are presented as dimensionless matrices and suggested for use in support of decision-making at the design stage, without any advanced fracture mechanics modelling and stochastic simulation. One important advantage of this format is that the probability levels are presented regardless of actual weld class and target service life (TSL). This is obtained by introducing the FDF as a key parameter to the results. This parameter is defined as the ratio of predicted fatigue life over TSL. FDF is always calculated in the S–N approach which is mandatory in fatigue life prediction. Various welded details (classes) will have the same reliability level for the same FDF. This is true at the end of TSL and at earlier stages, i.e. fractions of TSL. The absolute value of TSL is immaterial for a given FDF. In the case of in-service inspection, the inspection interval is also given without dimensions as a fraction of TSL.

Only the influence of future scheduled inspections is treated. Updating based on actual inspection results is not included as the scope of work is inspection planning at the design stage. Results for some frequent cases occurring in practice are readily derived and presented.     

Effect of parking information on travelers' knowledge and behavior

In many urban centers the demand for parking increases sharply before Christmas mainly due to shopping activity — causing parking congestion. One way to ameliorate such congestion is by disseminating parking information. Informed drivers may divert to relatively under-utilized parking facilities relieving the pressure on congested facilities. The City of Nottingham in England tested a real-time parking information system designed to alleviate congestion in the City Center parking facilities. Real-time information was disseminated through the radio, while historical information regarding parking locations was disseminated through newspaper advertisements and leaflets. The objective of this study is to assess impacts of the parking information system on travelers' knowledge and decisions.Survey research was used to understand traveler response. Respondents' levels of knowledge regarding car parks were analyzed by developing Poisson regression models. Drivers were more likely to have greater knowledge of city center car parks if they used several information sources (radio broadcasts, newspaper advertisements or leaflets and word-of-mouth), were active seekers of parking information, and searched for parking rather than going directly to a parking facility. In addition, the study of behavior showed that drivers were more inclined to use the relatively under-utilized Park-and-Ride facilities instead of the city center car parks if they received parking information from Newspaper advertisements/leaflets. Overall, the parking information service in Nottingham was effective; it seems reasonable to establish such information dissemination and monitoring systems at parking facilities in other urban areas. Furthermore, to support informed travel and activity participation decisions, parking information should be integrated with traffic and transit information.     

Dynamic location: an iconic model to synchronize temporal and spatial transportation data

This paper describes a model to synchronize the management and query of temporal and spatially referenced transportation data in geographic information systems (GIS). The model employs a method referred to as dynamic location, which facilitates spatial intersect queries from geographic shapes without the use of topological relationships. This is the inverse of how dynamic segmentation works in GIS. In contrast to dynamic segmentation, dynamic location stores geometry as an object within a single database field. This is an efficient, precise iconic model superseding the need for data decomposition into a complex set of tables. As an object model, the dynamic location process lends itself to high performance in an Internet, data-intensive, enterprise environment. Linear events are stored as {x, y} features, and not referenced to any route system. Route systems are built from {x, y, m} values (m for measure) and serve as number lines for mathematical operations. Any {x, y} object can then be referenced to either the Cartesian grid or any selected number line. This method offers the benefits of linear referencing, while making full use of a stable geodetic datum. Combinations of any {x, y} events may be placed over any {x, y, m} number line (route) and an intersect determined by looking through stacked {x, y, m} vertices of the coincident shapes. Since both geometry and shape reside in the same record, the use of “begin” and “end” dates facilitates full spatial and temporal version control. From a business process perspective, this creates a spatially enabled database, pulling GIS business functions back into the information technology mainstream.     

International comparisons of bus licensing

Based upon a doctoral research programme which surveyed bus and coach licensing systems throughout the world, this article seeks to arrive at a taxonomy of licensing. It identifies the familiar principles of quality, quantity and price control, examines them against the British licensing system introduced in 1930, and concludes that quantity control forms a more or less permeable barrier to contestability in the market for public road passenger transport; where it is strong, it is a constraint upon the sustainability of the market. It defines the British and the many similar licensing systems as arbitrational, and contrasts this characteristic with systems which are overtly based upon the allocation of a franchise.

The central section of the paper analyses various systems in more detail, and warns against too great a dependence upon the letter of the law. Much depends upon the ways in which regulations can be interpreted, and cases exist where practice contradicts the statute. There is found to be a division between arbitrational and franchise systems that is broadly the same as the division between countries with a Common Law background, and those with a Romano‐Germanic polity. Franchise is however common in the control of urban transport in countries where the extra‐urban system is arbitrational.

Franchise systems are further defined as being either concessions, or subcontracts. The significance of the franchising authority is examined. The final section sets out the issues of principle that appear to follow from this analysis, and stresses the importance of the distinction between arbitration and franchise for the understanding of licensing and control.     

A GIS‐based traffic analysis zone design: implementation and evaluation

The purpose of this paper is to implement an efficient method for GIS‐based traffic analysis zone (TAZ) design in order to evaluate and validate such a method. The method was developed by the authors.

Moran's I spatial autocorrelation coefficient and sample variance are used for evaluating the generated TAZs using the Champaign‐Urbana, IL region as a case study. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted to explore the fluctuations in TAZ generation outcomes. The evaluation, the validation as well as the TAZ design have been implemented with ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX workstation platform.     

2000年悉尼奥运会的战略交通规划、交通基础设施的需求分析和交通服务

本文给出了一个简要的交通战略规划、总体规划和操作规划的描述。战略规划必须发生在政策容许范围内。就城市交通而言,交通的可持速发展非常重要,本文给出了来自悉尼的一些例子。通过2000年悉尼奥林匹克运动会的案例研究解释了交通的需求分析。本文还为北京奥林匹克运动会的交通战略规划进程提出了建议。