Applying a Mediated Negotiation Framework to Integrated Coastal Zone Management

Conflict is intrinsic to coastal zone management, yet relatively few peer-reviewed studies have examined how coastal managers might apply conflict resolution processes in the coastal zone management (CZM) context. The authors believe that many of these disputes can be addressed by using a structured mediation model that involves face-to-face negotiation with a broad range of stakeholders to build consensus-based agreements for integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). To explore this further, the article examines four questions. First, it examines how CZM literature characterizes conflict and conflict resolution. Second, it looks at how essential principles from the field of alternative dispute resolution and environmental mediation can be best employed in the ICZM context. In particular, it explores the various elements of a stepwise agreement building model, a mediated negotiation process model the authors use in practice that bases its success on a foundation of four principles: representation, participation, legitimacy, and accountability. Next, it details three essential tools used in this process, stakeholder analysis, joint factfinding, and single-text negotiation, that the authors believe to be promising for developing and adopting stable, well-informed, and implementable agreements for ICZM. Finally, the article examines how these structuring principles and process strategies have been used in two recent case studies regarding the management of the San Francisco estuary and its tributaries.     

Flexible substitution patterns in models of mode and time of day choice: new evidence from the UK and the Netherlands

Modelling the temporal response of travellers to transport policy interventions has rapidly emerged as a major issue in many practical transport planning studies and is recognised to hold particular challenges. The importance of congestion and its variation over the day, together with the emergence of time-dependent road user charging as a policy tool, emphasise the need to understand whether and how travellers will change the timing of their journeys. For practical planning studies, analysts face a major issue of relating temporal changes to other behavioural changes that are likely to result from policy or exogenous changes. In particular, the relative sensitivity of time and mode switching has been difficult to resolve. This paper describes a study undertaken to determine the relative sensitivity of mode and time of day choice to changes in travel times and costs and to investigate whether evidence exists of varying magnitudes of unobservable influences in time of day switching. The study draws on data from three related stated preference studies undertaken over the past decade in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands and uses error components logit models to investigate the patterns of substitution between mode and time of day alternatives. It is concluded that the magnitude of unobserved influences on time switching depends significantly on the magnitudes of the time switches considered. With time periods of the magnitude generally represented in practical modelling, i.e. peak periods of 2–3 hours, time switching is generally more sensitive in these data than mode switching. However, the context of the modelling and the extent to which relevant variables can be measured will strongly influence these results.     

Rural mobility and mode choice: Evidence from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey

This article uses data from the 2001 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) to compare travel behavior in rural and urban areas of the U.S. As expected, the car is the overwhelmingly dominant mode of travel. Over 97% of rural households own at least one car vs. 92% of urban households; 91% of trips are made by car in rural areas vs. 86% in urban areas. Regardless of age, income, and race, almost everyone in rural areas relies on the private car for most travel needs. Mobility levels in rural areas are generally higher than in urban areas. That results from the more dispersed residences and activity sites in rural areas, which increase trip distances and force reliance on the car. Somewhat surprisingly, the rural elderly and poor are considerably more mobile than their urban counterparts, and their mobility deficit compared to the rural population average is strikingly less than for the urban elderly and poor compared to the urban average. Data limitations prevented a measurement of accessibility, however, and it seems likely that rural areas, by their very nature, are less accessible than urban areas, especially for the small percentage of car-less poor and elderly households.     

Equilibrium analysis of the scheduling of tours in congested networks

In this paper, we develop a model of travel in tours that joins several locations by travel through a congested network. We develop a microscopic analysis in continuous time of individual benefits obtained by spending time at each of the locations and costs incurred through travel between them. This is combined with a continuous time macroscopic equilibrium model of travel during congested peak periods to show how individuals' travel choices are influenced by the congestion that result from corresponding choices made by others. We show how different travellers can achieve identical net utilities by making different combinations of choices within the equilibrium. The resulting model can be used to investigate the effect on travel behaviour and individual utility of various transport interventions, and we illustrate this by considering the effect of a peak‐period charge that eliminates congestion.     

The Port of Baltimore: off the beaten track?

The Port of Baltimore has recently experienced alarming traffic trends. Most measures of port vitality have been going the wrong way—tonnage, ship calls, market share, steamship service. rail service. Baltimore has been squeezed by external forces and circumstances. Dergulated rail and truck rates have not favoured Baltimore, nor have railroad mergers that have led to rail traffic concentrations at rival seaports. Federal approval of dredging projects has been delaed. Crises in the labour market have created a climate of uncertainty. Global trade patterns and intermodel itineraries have shifted, again, it seems, not to Baltimore'advantage. Baltimore needs new public port policy recommendations. This paper explains some of the problems and offers preliminary suggestions.     

A technique for the investigation of scheme benefits in large-scale transport networks

Existing methods of evaluating large-scale transport networks involve the use of mathematical models of traffic flow which are generally both large and complex. However, the time and cost involved in the use of these models normally restricts their use for the detailed forecasting of traffic flows and costs to the assessment of a relatively small number of alternative patterns of overall investment. In order to evaluate the individual projects and groups of projects which go to make up an overall investment plan, it is, therefore, usually necessary to make simplifying assumptions about the influence of any one project on the overall traffic pattern, so as to isolate it from the influence of neighbouring projects. These assumptions generally result in the loss of a certain amount of the detail normally available from a standard model, and the task of assessing the relative value of different projects and the amount of interaction between them is made more difficult.This paper describes a new technique, designed to permit the evaluation of individual projects whilst still retaining the level of detail available from a full-scale mathematical model. The aim has been to produce a cheap and easy-to-use technique, capable of producing substantially the same results as a standard model. The technique uses newly developed computer algorithms which short-cut the full-scale model by forecasting the changes in an existing travel pattern resulting from the influence of a particular project. Initial tests suggest that approaching the problem in this way can save up to 70% of the computing time and costs involved in the use of a standard model for the evaluation of individual projects.The technique as described here is envisaged as a tool for aiding strategic investment decisions. It can, however, provide data for more detailed investigations, and could, with modifications, carry out these investigations on smaller problems than those for which it was originally designed.Crown copyright reserved, 1973     

The effect of socio-economic factors on the value of time in commuting to work

It is important to specify accurately the dollar value assigned to time savings, since up to eighty percent of the benefits estimated to accrue from improvements in transportation systems are associated with savings in travel time. In this paper the economic theory of consumer choice is utilized to structure a model that is used to estimate how Value of Time (VOT) measures vary with community-related variables.Parameters for this theoretical model are empirically estimated using data from transportation surveys conducted in Ithaca and Syracuse, New York and Amherst, Massachusetts. The results confirm the validity of the theoretical model and suggest that leisure time, travel cost, and household income level, as well as community population, are important determinants of the marginal value of time. These models are particularly suited for transferring data results obtained in one community to another, thereby saving survey costs, since the resulting VOT estimates are based solely on underlying socio-economic variables and community characteristics that are known for most localities. The methodology is also useful for estimating different VDT's for particular population subgroups, like the elderly, which may be the focus of a particular transportation project.     

Container shipping in 1990

By 1990 express shuttle container ships will dominate the USA/North European and USA/Pacific trades. The pattern is already apparent in the Pacific. These will touch only a few ports such as Halifax, New York and Virginia on the Atlantic and Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland and Seattle/Tacoma in the West. Their low costs and good services will capture over 80% of available general cargo. Round the world systems will be left with lucrative fringe business in the Mediterranean, US Gulf/South Atlantic, Singapore, India and Arab countries.

Progress will be sensitive to twelve trends. Most important of these will be labour resistance and management concerns about rapid obsolescence of ships and terminals. Rail and ship costs have been rationalized and are not as flexible as terminal costs. The ultimate terminal will consume about one third of the time and money presently needed.

This paper is chiefly intended to suggest a forecasting methodology.     

The role of congestion of transportation networks in urban location and travel choices

Congestion of urban transportation systems results from an equilibrium of location and travel choices with generalized travel costs which increase with vehicle flows as well as other factors. The use of network equilibrium concepts in analyzing urban policies and evaluating alternative plans is examined. Issues arising in the use of network equilibrium models are described, and formulations of urban network prediction and design models are explored.