The state-of-the-art of “comprehensive” planning

Planning occurs as a part of governmental operations wherever decision-making happens. For US metropolitan areas, the locuses of decision-making are multiple, ranging in scale from very small jurisdictions up through the hierarchy to state and federal levels, and in function from general governments to many special-purpose agencies — transportation, health care, education, etc. Almost all might affect or be affected by urban transportation decisions and actions. Since no one of these units of government is comprehensive in authority and activity, there is no single, centralized planning operation that is truly comprehensive. Pluralistic planning is increasingly trying to foresee and to accommodate the interactions among the various levels and functions. Instead of fragmenting, with the fragments pulled apart and insulated, we need to move toward partitioning, not merely to delimit boundaries but also to identify interfaces. This movement is hampered by the differentials in the development of the state-of-the-art of the technical planning process now used by the several levels and functional units of government. This is most advanced, and most effective, for small, homogeneous suburban jurisdictions primarily concerned with guiding and controlling physical development; it is in disarray in central cities trying to cope with social and economic problems as well as with physical deterioration; at the metropolitan scale it is highly developed technically but not very influential. There is a trend toward a network of planning activities that recognizes and facilitates interrelationships and interactions, both vertically among functional boundaries and horizontally across geographical-scale distinctions — a trend toward the comprehensive —but we have a very long way to go.Paper prepared for the Highway Research Board Conference on Organization for Continuing Urban Transportation Planning.     

Ship finance and Euro-markets

Due to the capital-intensive nature of the modern shipping industry, loan finance plays a major role in vessel-acquisition cost. In this paper, J. B. Yolland discusses government-guaranteed finance, ancillary and commercial new building finance and finance for second-hand tonnage. He also examines a new source of funding found in the Euro-market.     

Techniques of land use/transportation planning in Australian cities

With the publication of the Sydney Area Transportation Study, land-use/transportation studies now have been conducted in all capital cities as well as in the majority of other urban areas with populations in excess of 40.000. A review of these studies is made and a qualitative assessment is attempted of the technical phases —land-use planning, trip-generation, trip-distribution, modal-split, traffic assignment and evaluation. Full summary results of this comparative survey are presented in tabular form, although themes developed in the text are illustrated with specific examples from individual studies. The methodology of land-use/transportation studies has been attacked by some Australian writers. An attempt is made to assess the relevance of these criticisms when applied to the practical planning process in Australia.     

Equilibrium holdings distributions in durable asset markets

The stock of durable goods can be represented by its holdings distribution, defined as the joint distribution of age and physical condition of the population of durable goods. This paper derives the holdings distribution which arises under stationary conditions when durable goods deteriorate according to a Markov process. We show that given the scrappage and utilization decisions of consumers, the holdings distribution F(x) is an equilibrium distribution of an associated regenerative Markov process. Using a basic result from the theory of regenerative stochastic processes, we characterize F(x) as the ratio of the expected number of periods the durable's condition is better than x to the expected lifetime of the asset. Using data from the 1977 National Transportation Survey we illustrate these results by estimating a simple two-parameter model of automobile deterioration and comparing the implied distribution of automobile holdings to the actual distribution.     

Bridge and tunnel toll elasticities in New York

In 1992, the authors carried out a statistical analysis of Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (TBTA) crossings in New York City, to determine the impact of toll increases on traffic volumes and revenue. Using twelve years of monthly time-series data, we developed a set of multiple regression models that estimated traffic volumes on each TBTA bridge and tunnel as a function of the toll level and other explanatory variables. In most cases, the estimated toll elasticities were negative and much less than 1.0 in absolute value; the median toll elasticity for automobiles was found to be –0.10. Our finding that automobile travel demand is highly inelastic with respect to toll rates is consistent with most previous travel demand studies.     

Non-trading,lexicographic and inconsistent behaviour in stated choice data

This paper discusses a number of issues relating to the pre-analysis and cleaning of stated choice data, where we look specifically at the problems caused by non-trading, lexicographic and inconsistent response patterns. We argue that this process is considerably more complex and challenging than many in the field have hitherto acknowledged, with the standard practice being the use of rather ad hoc procedures for the identification of these phenomena. A detailed analysis on four different stated choice datasets highlights the potential impacts of these methods on model estimation results.     

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加拿大阿尔伯塔省经济的飞速发展，使得为全省制定合理的交通规划成为一项迫切的任务，在这种情况下，本文提出了全省的土地利用交通模型。该模型以PECAS（生产、交易和消费分派系统）结构为基础，实质是在整体经济的前提下考虑基本的交通需求（商品、服务、劳动力交换的流通过程）而进行交通规划。生产、交易和消费分派系统是一种空间经济模拟系统，它侧重交通规划和发展规划，近几年在美国提出并在一些州和城市得到应用。阿尔伯塔省土地利用交通模型受其模型建立基础，尤其是MEPLAN 和TRANUS模型的影响，但该模型在理论基础和行为描述上都做了明显的改进。本文从数据源和标定方法方面介绍加拿大阿尔伯塔省的土地利用交通模型的建立和发展。