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301.
Abstract An essential aspect of economic analysis associated with planning efforts is identifying the composition of existing economic activity and understanding historical trends in economic change. The shift‐share model is a useful and inexpensive tool for this purpose. Shift‐share analysis evaluates changes in local economic activities relative to changes in a reference area (usually the state or nation). Economic change is separated into a reference area component, an industry mix component, and a local share component. These measure, respectively, the effect on the local economy due to changes in the reference area, factors specific to the local mix of industries, and the changing competitive position of the local area relative to the reference area. A shift‐share analysis of Florida's coastal counties reveals that all grew much faster over the 1965–1975 period than did the national economy. This rapid growth is primarily a result of a net shift of economic activity toward the study area relative to the nation. However, a few coastal counties did exhibit a mix of slow‐growing industries. Specific industry results for Florida counties at the eighty‐industry level reveal that many industries showed significant shifts toward Florida's coastal counties. The performance of individual industries in the coastal counties generally exceeded that of the same industries in noncoastal counties. 相似文献
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In the last two decades, the growing need for short‐term prediction of traffic parameters embedded in a real‐time intelligent transportation systems environment has led to the development of a vast number of forecasting algorithms. Despite this, there is still not a clear view about the various requirements involved in modelling. This field of research was examined by disaggregating the process of developing short‐term traffic forecasting algorithms into three essential clusters: the determination of the scope, the conceptual process of specifying the output and the process of modelling, which includes several decisions concerning the selection of the proper methodological approach, the type of input and output data used, and the quality of the data. A critical discussion clarifies several interactions between the above and results in a logical flow that can be used as a framework for developing short‐term traffic forecasting models. 相似文献
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The ability of conventional South African travel analysis practices to analyse adequately the travel needs of the poor is examined. The origins and nature of conventional practices are described, and it is observed that typically their scope has been limited to motorized modes, commutes and peaks. The paper reports on the findings of an activity diary survey administered in Cape Town that extended the conventional scope of analysis. An activity‐based survey method was selected because it typically yields higher rates of trip recall than other methods and is therefore relatively well suited to investigating travel behaviour in its fuller complexity. Selected findings of the survey are presented to demonstrate that travel occurring by non‐motorized modes, for non‐work purposes and during off‐peak periods, is considerable. It is argued that the conventional limitation in analytical scope can create serious misconceptions of the true nature of travel behaviour, particularly of low‐income households. By restricting the focus of analysis to motorized, work and peak period trip‐making, there is a risk of a routine bias being introduced in the way the urban passenger transport problem is understood, and in the nature of the interventions that are implemented as a result. 相似文献
306.
Urban passenger transport in the United States and Europe: a comparative analysis of public policies
John Pucher 《运输评论》2013,33(3):211-227
This is the second part of a two‐part series that examines recent developments in urban passenger transport in the United States and Europe, focusing on the roles and impacts of the public sector as these have varied by country and over time. The first part of the series described public policies for roadway systems and private car use, whereas this second part concentrates on public transport. After a review of demand and supply trends, the article evaluates government policies in terms of public vs private ownership and operation, public regulation, financing responsibility by government level, types and amounts of subsidy, and impacts of ownership, regulation, and financing arrangements on costs and productivity. This second part concludes with an overall comparison between Europe and the United States, and considers how Europeans and Americans might learn from each other's successes and mistakes in order to improve transport policies. 相似文献
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Comment by John R. Clark Comment by Kem Lowry Comment by Stephen B. Olsen Response by Jens Sorensen 相似文献
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John Stanley David A. Hensher 《Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice》2008,42(10):1295-1301
The Thredbo Conference series has developed the idea of negotiated performance-based contracts as effective public transport service delivery mechanisms, with trusting partnerships between authority and operators providing an environment likely to maximise the performance of this delivery mode. However, there is a distinct lack of relevant case study material on trusting partnerships in public transport to affirm this proposition. This paper seeks to redress the balance. It outlines the system development directions that are being implemented for bus services in Melbourne, Australia, and the way that a broad-based constituency has been built to support those directions. It then illustrates the extension of the tactical trusting partnership approach between purchaser and provider to the level of the individual operator contract, showing how this should create a flexible yet disciplined environment to manage and cope with change and growth. The broad nature of the new contracts is summarised and, building on the findings from Thredbo 9, processes that are being implemented to manage the on-going relationship between purchaser and providers are outlined. Finally, the paper argues for extending KPIs beyond the operator to encompass the authority/regulator and the partnership of authority/operator, to extend performance pressures beyond the operator and recognise the interdependence of partners in a true partnership. 相似文献
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