Direct to your destination: the size,scope and competitive status of express coach carriers in the United States

The advent of express coach bus lines offering guaranteed seating and emphasizing curbside pickup and drop-off is contributing to a revival in intercity bus travel in the United States. Relatively little is known, however, about the scale and geographic scope of these carriers or the competitive landscape in which they operate. To fill this void, this study evaluates the service networks operated by the two largest express coach operators in the country, BoltBus and Megabus, and evaluates a data set of 4775 fares sold on megabus.com. The results show that these carriers cumulatively serve 127 intercity segments and operate about 52.9 million bus miles per year. Together, these carriers have grown to about one third of the size of Amtrak, with Megabus and BoltBus providing 3.3 billion and .69 billion seat miles of service, respectively, compared to Amtrak’s 12.8 billion. With respect to the types of routes it serves and the competition it faces, Megabus has evolved into a carrier quite different than Boltbus; more than one third of Megabus’ bus miles are operated on segments without Amtrak service, while virtually all of BoltBus’ miles face this competition. The analysis of Megabus’ pricing shows that fares rise modestly within 2 weeks of departure, while the per-mile costs are much less ($.08/mile) for 300–399 mile trips than for those 50–99 miles ($.22/mile). Nevertheless, the dispersion of fares tends to fall as the departure date nears, regardless of distance. Together, these prominent bus lines serve 66 of the 100 most heavily traveled U.S. city pairs that have characteristics suitable for intercity bus service—which is more than Amtrak. With further growth on the horizon, planners, federal regulators, and researchers should collaborate on establishing reporting requirements for this expanding sector.

     

Development of a neighborhood commute mode share model using nationally-available data

Transportation - Practitioners often use demand models to predict how neighborhood-level land use, infrastructure, demographic, and other changes may impact transportation systems. Few of the...     

Direct analysis of the perceived importance of attributes of reliability of travel modes in urban travel

Reliability of travel modes was found to be the most important characteristic of transportation systems in several attitudinal investigations of individual travel behavior. This paper represents the first part of a research effort aimed at gaining a better understanding of the characteristics of reliability of transportation modes in urban travel. In this research, reliability characteristics are identified; their importance relative to each other is assessed, and an insight into possible structure of an objective reliability index is discussed. The research is based on perceived values of reliability, which were identified through a large attitudinal survey conducted in the Chicago metropolitan area.     

Transit subsidies and regulation: Lessons from the Israeli experience

The Israeli transport sector, like those of many other countries is subject to complete government control with regard to fares, entry into the market, terms of operation and subsidies. It is unique, however, in that the fares charged are remarkably low and that the major transit mode, buses, is operated by privately owned companies. This paper explores what makes this low level of fares possible and in doing so examines the principal characteristics of the sector. It shows that this phenomenon cannot be explained by the amount of subsidy given to the operators but must be attributed to other factors, mainly the efficiency in the production of the services which is motivated by the profit maximization objective of the operators. The paper further argues that government policies regarding subsidy and regulation are generally inefficient as they cause misallocation of resources.     

Network-based real option models

Building on earlier work to incorporate real option methodologies into network modeling, two models are proposed. The first is the network option design problem, which maximizes the expanded net present value of a network investment as a function of network design variables with the option to defer the committed design investment. The problem is shown to be a generalized version of the network design problem and the multi-period network design problem. A heuristic based on radial basis functions is used to solve the problem for continuous link expansion with congestion effects. The second model is a link investment deferral option set, which decomposes the network investment deferral option into individual, interacting link or project investments. This model is a project selection problem under uncertainty, where each link or project can be deferred such that the expanded net present value is maximized. The option is defined in such a way that a lower bound can be solved using an exact method based on multi-option least squares Monte Carlo simulation. Numerical tests are conducted with the classical Sioux Falls network and compared to earlier published results.     

Marine Shoreline Management—A 35-Year Evaluation of Outcomes in San Juan County,Washington, US

In 1976, Washington became the first state to implement the federal Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA) primarily through the 1971 WA Shoreline Management Act (SMA). However, there has been little effort in Washington to evaluate outcomes of shoreline protection programs post SMA. In 2006–2008, we characterized shoreline conditions in San Juan County over three time periods spanning pre and post SMA and engaged community members to improve effectiveness of shoreline protection. We found modest improvements in forest retention on marine shorelines between pre and post 1977, but few other improvements through time. While we could not measure shoreline construction rates, construction practices for shore armor and overwater structures (docks) have changed very little, despite the increased regulatory standards. The vast majority of shore armor constructed post SMA occurred without mandatory county or state permits likely due to: widespread perception that permits were unnecessary and that permit standards were arbitrary and inconsistently applied; poor understanding of shoreline ecology by community members; lack of county or state enforcement authority and shoreline monitoring programs; and poor permit tracking systems.     

The implications of travel profiles for transportation investment: The Bronx Center Project

Investment in transportation infrastructure is generally regarded as an effective means for inducing economic growth and employment in a region. However, the ability of such investments to achieve these objectives, to a large extent, depends on the degree to which travel results from these investments support or conflict with present travel patterns and needs in this region. Using this view as a basis, this paper analyzes travel conditions and choices in the Bronx New York, where large scale transportation and other development projects (commonly called the Bronx Center Project) are presently taking place. Using a large data base, composed of census tract information on socio-economic and travel behavior, the paper first examines the travel profile of the Bronx population, by estimating travel choice elasticities. On the basis of these elasticities it then assesses the impact of the Bronx Center Project on travel patterns and trends.