The effect of the oil crisis on the growth in the ownership and use of cars

Since the oil crisis of 1973, a number of studies have been made in various countries of the effects of the rise in petrol prices on the level of traffic flow, but rather fewer have attempted to delineate the complex chain of reactions within the car market set off by this impulse. We attempt to do this, using data from the UK.Since 1966 during the prediction stage of the first London Transportation Study it became obvious that low income and high income households had different rates of growth of car ownership, mainly because low income households bought cheap, old cars which vary in quantity and price differently from expensive, new cars. The Greater London Council therefore sponsored a study of car prices by age and size, starting from 1957 annually, and since the oil crisis, evaluated monthly. This has enabled us to examine the strong change in trend that had occurred, with large cars depreciating 15% per annum more than the smallest. The quantities of cars of each size registered each month are available from national statistics and this enables us to say that the previous 1% per annum increase in car size was arrested, with new cars becoming substantially smaller.A model of the car market has been developed which relates on the one hand the price distribution of cars by age, and on the other hand the price. distribution of the stock of cars owned at each household income level. Via the expenditure on car purchase at each household income level and the distribution of the length of time between purchase and resale of cars, a fully dynamic model has been developed to relate expenditure flow and stock. This enables us to test the effect of different trends on the dynamic equilibrium in the car market.The implications of the two trends noted above on the prediction of future car ownership growth are discussed, with the standstill since the oil crisis attributed to petrol prices via the split in household expenditure between purchase and use.     

The vagrant ethic: Need for a sea-lane philosophy

Although considerable progress has recently been made in the evolution of marine traffic procedures in coastal and waterway areas, mariners are finding difficulty in coping with the diverse traffic schemes that have so far been devised. This paper is a plea for international and logical marine traffic management, so that ships can operate safely and efficiently within a framework of the proliferating offshore zonal legislation that we are now witnessing.     

Travel intensity in a city with a barrier

An analytical study is made of the determination of the travel intensity at an arbitrary point of a city with a straight line barrier. For a given origin and destination a trip is made by the shortest path not crossing the barrier or the city perimeter. The joint trip end distribution is arbitrary except for a continuity assumption.     

Stability Criteria for Automobile-Trailer Combinations

The characteristic equation for a simple automobile-trailer combination is analyzed, revealing the parameter groups which are important in determining the stability characteristics. Application of Routh's method results in separate criteria for oscillatory and non-oscillatory criteria which can be evaluated algebraically, and which can also be displayed graphically showing a region of stability on a two-dimensional plot. The stability region is bounded by limits of oscillatory and non-oscillatory stability, and the evaluation of a specific case corresponds to the location of a point relative to the boundaries.     

Design Synthesis of a Vehicle Suspension System Using Multi-Parameter Qptimization

The transmission of road-generated vibrations into a vehicle body is treated as a source-path-receiver problem. The suspension system acts as the path, and improved isolation can be achieved by having a single compliant bushing at the connecting point of the shock absorber to the body with none at the other end. A mathematical model is derived for such a system which would enable detailed parameter investigation to be undertaken using the gradient method of optimization. An expression for the absolute displacement transmissibility of the body is derived and the optimization procedure is applied in order to evaluate the optimum values of the non-dimensional variables involved. This minimizes the maximum motion transmitted to the body from the road surface over a broad frequency range. Design data which are presented non-dimensionally for parameter variations show the influence of three variables: the bushing stiffness, the resonant frequency ratio and the damping coefficient upon the transmissibility.     

低硒对心室肌纤维细胞动作电位的影响

用克山病区的粮食饲养大鼠,复制低硒动物模型、用浮置玻璃微电极技术,研究低硒大鼠在体心室肌细胞动作电位的变化,并与对照组进行了对比观察。结果发现低硒大鼠动作电位振幅明显降低(P<0.05),动作电位除极时限显著延长(P<0.01),而动作电位复极50%及90%的持续时间变化不显著(P>0.05)。实验结果说明低硒可明显影响大鼠心室肌细胞动作电位变化。为克山病心肌损害的病因学研究提供了重要的实验依据。     

A note on the interpretation of the dual variables in estimating traffic capacity at signal- controlled road junctions

The values of the dual variables in a constrained optimisation problem can be used to estimate the sensitivity of the optimal value of the objective function to changes in the constraints. Allsop (1972) used standard methods of linear programming to derive expressions for the sensitivity of the reserve capacity at a signal-controlled road junction to various changes in the traffic engineering constraints. That analysis used the assumption that the maximum reserve capacity would be achieved when the cycle time used is maximal. While this normally occurs, some junctions have come to light where a reduction in the cycle time increases the capacity. Allsop's analysis is extended here to account for this possibility.     

Rethinking maritime privatization in Africa

While recognizing the need for increased participation of the private sector in the maritime industry of developing countries, there is a need to go beyond the call for privatization in terms of mere change of ownership from state to private sector as the only solution to the inefficiency of the maritime industry in developing countries. This limited understanding of the maritime problems of these countries abounds in the literature on maritime privatization. This study departs from this approach and focuses on the political economy of the maritime industry, and suggests that maritime privatization will not necessarily result in increased efficiency of the divested maritime enterprises. Rather, it argues that maritime problems in these countries have less to do with ownership than with the structural constraints in world shipping together with internal management and local ~olitics. The maritime industrv in West and Central Africa is used as a case studv. and recommendations such as selective privatization, 'programme contract', and most importantly, corporatization, are suggested as alternative strategies that could enhance maritime privatization and the development of the maritime industry in developing countries.